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Visa Bulletin For May 2015

MatthewDermot said:
Hello :) I have seen from other posts that you are predicting the cut off for the oceanic region to come in at 1580. Are you able to say how accurate this is estimation is? As in, if someone has a number in the 1400’s, do you think it is 100% certain that they will have their number called? Or would it be more accurate to say that the 1400’s have a 90% chance, or 50%, and so on? Sorry for the pedantic question! I’m just slightly nervous as I’d originally thought that my number would definitely be called and, on such basis, am making substantial life plans to move!!!!! Cheers x
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Don't make plans based on guesswork, no matter how good the anonymous guesser on the internet says the guess is!
 
Martin9 said:
Simon, if you love trivia, then I have to tell you that this is one of the few explanations for the origin of the phrase, not the only one. They may all be apocryphal, rather like the explanation for why the English use the two finger "salute" which has nothing to do with the French wars or the archers. Another popular explanation is that the expression has its origins in the criminal world of 18th and 19th century London. In those days street robbers often worked in gangs of two. One would trip up the unsuspecting victim and the other would remove his money and other valuables while he was lying on the ground. The robber didn’t literally pull the victim’s leg but caused him to stumble and fall and then lose his valuables. If your leg is pulled now, you don’t lose your money but you might betray your ignorance and lose your temper, or face.
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Yes I was aware of the other explanation and also the fact that neither explanation really makes sense with today's use of the phrase. However I choose to connect it to the hangers on. :)

By the way, I saw once that some upstart American was claimed as the original author of the phrase. Poppycock.
 
Britsimon said:
Don't make plans based on guesswork, no matter how good the anonymous guesser on the internet says the guess is!
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Hi Simon, thanks for your advice and I do agree! I was not making plans based on your estimations, rather I'd made them based on my own - and when I say making plans I don't mean high risk ones!! Now, having come across your prediction that the OC region will definitely not go current and that you expect it to cut off in the 1580's, I'm wondering how accurate my prediction was. Perhaps you have info that I don't. So really I'd just like to know how confident are you (a percentage is a good way of describing it) that the 1400's will be called up?
 
MatthewDermot said:
Hi Simon, thanks for your advice and I do agree! I was not making plans based on your estimations, rather I'd made them based on my own - and when I say making plans I don't mean high risk ones!! Now, having come across your prediction that the OC region will definitely not go current and that you expect it to cut off in the 1580's, I'm wondering how accurate my prediction was. Perhaps you have info that I don't. So really I'd just like to know how confident are you (a percentage is a good way of describing it) that the 1400's will be called up?
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I don't do percentages because as Euro said you can miss by 1 case number and then you are at 0%.

The VB for OC has grown by 50, 75 or 100 for each month since January (mostly 100). There is a reason for that pace, with the response rate, quota and so on the 100 CNs is yielding about the right number of issuances for the monthly pace.

There are 3 bulletins left, but last year OC did not advance in the final VB. So - we can probably reckon on VB increases around 75/100 each month, but will that be for 2 more months or 3 more months....

Even if it is 100 increase and all 3 months, that would put us at 1475... so there is reason to be cautious about 14XX range even though earlier math exercises tend to suggest something around 1500.

The only thing you can do is wait.
 
Britsimon said:
I don't do percentages because as Euro said you can miss by 1 case number and then you are at 0%.

The VB for OC has grown by 50, 75 or 100 for each month since January (mostly 100). There is a reason for that pace, with the response rate, quota and so on the 100 CNs is yielding about the right number of issuances for the monthly pace.

There are 3 bulletins left, but last year OC did not advance in the final VB. So - we can probably reckon on VB increases around 75/100 each month, but will that be for 2 more months or 3 more months....

Even if it is 100 increase and all 3 months, that would put us at 1475... so there is reason to be cautious about 14XX range even though earlier math exercises tend to suggest something around 1500.

The only thing you can do is wait.
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Ahhhhh just as I was beginning to relax
 
MatthewDermot said:
Hello :) I have seen from other posts that you are predicting the cut off for the oceanic region to come in at 1580. Are you able to say how accurate this is estimation is? As in, if someone has a number in the 1400’s, do you think it is 100% certain that they will have their number called? Or would it be more accurate to say that the 1400’s have a 90% chance, or 50%, and so on? Sorry for the pedantic question! I’m just slightly nervous as I’d originally thought that my number would definitely be called and, on such basis, am making substantial life plans to move!!!!! Cheers x
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Hi @MatthewDermot come and join the rest of us OC14xx-ers in the Oceania thread.
 
EURO2014 said:
Not quite sure where the CN1,580 would be compellingly deduced from. At least when you look at recent historical OC numbers, there does not seem to be an overly convincing basis for it:
https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1
Obviously, there is no 100% certainty in a lottery within a lottery system, given that last year OC ended with CN1,450 as you well know. Hence, CN1,401 and CN1,499 could possibly well result in different outcomes, depending where you are personally lined up right now. In any case, don't make any life changing decisions before you hold the actual visa in your hand, the KCC advice on this point is rather clear and specific.
Best of luck to you!
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In my defence, I did explain -- at length -- where the figures come from. I later cited factors that would imply variation, like more OC-ers wanting visas. As the months go by, it's looking less and less likely we'll crack even 1500, but 'looking back to look forward' is even less compelling than a calculation with controlled assumptions.

Just setting it straight.
 
connectedspace said:
In my defence, I did explain -- at length -- where the figures come from. I later cited factors that would imply variation, like more OC-ers wanting visas. As the months go by, it's looking less and less likely we'll crack even 1500, but 'looking back to look forward' is even less compelling than a calculation with controlled assumptions.

Just setting it straight.
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:) Nobody is 'looking back to look forward'... I simply said that, "I am not quite sure where the CN1,580 would be compellingly deduced from" based on available OC VB numbers. OP did not say where he got that number from, therefore no chance to look at any predictions you might have posted somewhere else earlier. Nothing is impossible in life, yet 'more OC-ers wanting visas' is probably not quite going to cut it. Best of luck!
 
Last edited:
Just received an email today..seems like Im scheduled for the first week of June

Im currently in the process of renewing my old passport. I dont think I'll get it within time of my interview..My old passport is still valid tho
Is it possible to get the immigrant visa transferred over to the new passport when i get it?
 
Darkn said:
Just received an email today..seems like Im scheduled for the first week of June

Im currently in the process of renewing my old passport. I dont think I'll get it within time of my interview..My old passport is still valid tho
Is it possible to get the immigrant visa transferred over to the new passport when i get it?
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No, you will not be able to transfer the visa to a new passport. All you have to do though is present both passports when you're ready to travel.
 
Darkn said:
Just received an email today..seems like Im scheduled for the first week of June

Im currently in the process of renewing my old passport. I dont think I'll get it within time of my interview..My old passport is still valid tho
Is it possible to get the immigrant visa transferred over to the new passport when i get it?
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Here are verbatim instructions in terms of passport(s), the US consulate would like to see on the date of the interview:
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Supplemental/FRN - Frankfurt.pdf (example FRN, other consulates same):
"PASSPORT (+ a photocopy of biographic page ONLY): The passport must be valid for travel to the United States and have at least 6 months validity beyond the issuance date of the visa. Children must have their own individual passports. Do not mail in your original passport unless specifically requested to do so! "
 
Darkn said:
Just received an email today..seems like Im scheduled for the first week of June

Im currently in the process of renewing my old passport. I dont think I'll get it within time of my interview..My old passport is still valid tho
Is it possible to get the immigrant visa transferred over to the new passport when i get it?
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Congratulation Darkn :) which is your case number pls, I am EU307** but I haven't received the 2NL yet :(
I'm a little bit anxious :S
Good luck too you!!
 
CP1983 said:
Hi Simon. Just wondering when you are going to release your updated predictions? Thanks in advance. CP
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I can only do that once I see the 2NLs in the CEAC data. They are not there yet - so hopefully later today they will be there - and new predictions late today or this weekend.
 
Hi @Britsimon .. I called KCC on Thursday, they told me the date that my case is scheduled for interview. They said by Thursday or Friday i shall receive an email or check the website.

Nothing yet, i believe we should wait for Monday?

and one more question, what documents should be included by the sponsor beside I 34 if i am not mistaken.

Thank you for always assisting.
 
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