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Visa Bulletin For May 2015

brownstone said:
Hi @Britsimon .. I called KCC on Thursday, they told me the date that my case is scheduled for interview. They said by Thursday or Friday i shall receive an email or check the website.

Nothing yet, i believe we should wait for Monday?

and one more question, what documents should be included by the sponsor beside I 34 if i am not mistaken.

Thank you for always assisting.
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In which number did you call? I will also call on that.
 
brownstone said:
Hi @Britsimon .. I called KCC on Thursday, they told me the date that my case is scheduled for interview. They said by Thursday or Friday i shall receive an email or check the website.

Nothing yet, i believe we should wait for Monday?

and one more question, what documents should be included by the sponsor beside I 34 if i am not mistaken.

Thank you for always assisting.
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Some people got 2NLs today, but many more people are waiting - they may come before Monday - otherwise yes, Monday.

For the I 134 the supporting docs should be tax/income documents (W2/1040) plus identification (copy of passport/DL)
 
Britsimon said:
Some people got 2NLs today, but many more people are waiting - they may come before Monday - otherwise yes, Monday.

For the I 134 the supporting docs should be tax/income documents (W2/1040) plus identification (copy of passport/DL)
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Simon, I know you are in PST.

Just want to let you know CEAC has been updated to include 5275-5950 cases to show "in transit".

Nepal had a 7.9 magnitude earthquake which Martin9 alerted us on another thread.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Simon, I know you are in PST.

Just want to let you know CEAC has been updated to include 5275-5950 cases to show "in transit".

Nepal had a 7.9 magnitude earthquake which Martin9 alerted us on another thread.
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I learned about the earthquake from Martins post. That is a huge quake, terrible for the people there.

Thanks about the Ceac data. I saw that was updated while I was out to dinner so I kicked off the extracts. I have AF, will have the rest today.
 
Hi Guys,

Having May lower current numbers for Asia than last year in mind, What do you think about chance of AS76XX CN from Iran with possible AP? I have submitted DS260 in June.

As Britsimon told, I'm expecting my interview in Aug (others believe so?) do you believe there could be still any chance if I face AP?

I've also unlocked my DS-260 and closed without any changes last week (just in case that could affect my case)

That seems most of Iranian AP cases are cleared after 3-4 months. Does it mean no chance for me if I face AP?

Also I'm wondering how they will deal with AS cases with up to 19XXX when me with 76XX have that low chance! Do you believe Asia will be current this year?

Sincerely,
Hamid
 
hamidrkh said:
Hi Guys,

Having May lower current numbers for Asia than last year in mind, What do you think about chance of AS76XX CN from Iran with possible AP? I have submitted DS260 in June.

As Britsimon told, I'm expecting my interview in Aug (others believe so?) do you believe there could be still any chance if I face AP?

I've also unlocked my DS-260 and closed without any changes last week (just in case that could affect my case)

That seems most of Iranian AP cases are cleared after 3-4 months. Does it mean no chance for me if I face AP?

Also I'm wondering how they will deal with AS cases with up to 19XXX when me with 76XX have that low chance! Do you believe Asia will be current this year?

Sincerely,
Hamid
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Indeed 76xx from Iran will most likely in Aug.

AP falls in 2 buckets IMO, 1) you missed some document or minor checks with other post or 2) security/background checks.

If you got 2) that might be a bit worrying while 1) is a matter of days or weeks.However, there's another catch. If your interview is in late in the month and your AP last beyond the end of the month, you lose your visa spot. From there, when your AP is clear the following month, another visa spot is requested if there's any available.

As sad it sounds AS19XXX is pretty much hopeless.....
 
Anxiety2015 said:
My apologies guys as I've used the incorrect CN to issued ratio.

Here's the revised numbers:

For 2500 visa quota, with 1150/1060/700 left, it will stop at 12152,11745,10438 at 150/160/200 per thousand.
We will need 1383/1360/1123 cases to fill 1150/1060/700 visas.

For 2000 visa quota, with 650/560/200 left, it will stop at 10767,10438,9358 at 150/160/200 per thousand.We will need 782/718/320 cases to fill 650/560/200 visas.

So how do I arrive at those numbers? Let's take 150 per thousand for example.
We have 536 ROA case in the 1st 4300 CN Range, 150 per thousand *4.3/536 = 1.203358 visa per 1 case
Between 9000-10000, we have 296 cases, so we can expect 296*1.203358 visa per 1 case = 356.194 visas
Let's say ROA will take 2500 visa in total, after 9000, we have 2500-(150*9) = 1150
So the question is how many cases do we need to get 1150 visas?
It's 1150/1.203358 visa per 1 case = 955.6589 cases.
If we go to the ceac data on Jan 1, the 955th case after 9000 is CN 12152.

We are assuming every case will respond, which is not true, so you can expect at 80% response rate, the CN will be higher, and even higher for 60% response rate.
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I might go further to speculate 13xxx is somewhat risky and beyond 15xxxx, it's pretty much hopeless.
My own quote illustrate how I arrive at those numbers, hope this helps.
 
Hello,
My CN is EU307** and my status is ready at ceac link but I haven't received an email with the appointment date neither is updated the dvlottery.state.gov link :((
What should I do plss…
Thnx in advanced :)
 
AidaX said:
Hello,
My CN is EU307** and my status is ready at ceac link but I haven't received an email with the appointment date neither is updated the dvlottery.state.gov link :((
What should I do plss…
Thnx in advanced :)
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Ready? Thats good...i am EU32XXX and still it says in transit, and havent received the 2NL
 
AidaX said:
Hello,
My CN is EU307** and my status is ready at ceac link but I haven't received an email with the appointment date neither is updated the dvlottery.state.gov link :((
What should I do plss…
Thnx in advanced :)
Click to expand...

That is totally fine - you WILL get your 2NL over the next couple of days - just relax and wait.
 
Hello
Dear Britsimon my CN in EU7xxx, but I submit my DS260 form in 10 of December and till now I didn't receive my 2NL, could u help me please to understand what's going on with my case, corently it shows in transit. What does it mean?
 
Tatevik said:
Hello
Dear Britsimon my CN in EU7xxx, but I submit my DS260 form in 10 of December and till now I didn't receive my 2NL, could u help me please to understand what's going on with my case, corently it shows in transit. What does it mean?
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The in TRansit means they have scheduled you for a June interview. Your will get the 2NL itself in the next day or two.
 
i am from nepal and there has been a terrible earthquake. i am current for this month but has not received 2NL although i have submitted DS260 in may. Is it due to earthquake? Has other people received the 2NL?
 
Nepali Boy said:
i am from nepal and there has been a terrible earthquake. i am current for this month but has not received 2NL although i have submitted DS260 in may. Is it due to earthquake? Has other people received the 2NL?
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Britsimon says that there is some computer glitch, and it is not Nepal specific. You should check your status on CEAC website, if it turns "In Transit" or "Ready" than you are scheduled. It was said that on entrant status check website it may or may not show your 2NL at this time.
 
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