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Visa Bulletin For May 2015

EURO2014 said:
You don't seem to consider much third-party input, do you? This increasingly sounds like whistling in the dark...
Don't get me wrong - I certainly wish you were right, unfortunately this is a rather generous bet you are offering. Best of luck!
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:)
 
EURO2014 said:
This is like driving a car while looking out through the back window - same likelihood of success... ;)
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Hi Euro2014
I want to thank you and Britsimon for giving so many answers and information about DV2015.
My DV case number is pretty high (2015SA000015XX) and I am glad to read that everything is not lost for me.
Why do you think they are so slow this year? What are the possible scenarios for the next 3 bulletins?
Thank you very much.
 
Pedro Roques said:
Hi Euro2014
I want to thank you and Britsimon for giving so many answers and information about DV2015.
My DV case number is pretty high (2015SA000015XX) and I am glad to read that everything is not lost for me.
Why do you think they are so slow this year? What are the possible scenarios for the next 3 bulletins?
Thank you very much.
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Hola Pedro, You are very welcome. I mainly focused on the EU region, which is complex enough, yet earlier posted in the SA sub-forum the following question:
EURO2014 said:
May this be related to/resulting from the diplomatic "stand-off" in Venezuela, given the high participation and DV importance of this one country in SA?
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I honestly think that with your SA1,5xx number, you nevertheless stand a pretty fair chance to become current this year, as KCC will have to target defined regional visa issuing objectives for DV 2015, in order to comply with respective underlying diversity objectives. The same is true for Asia, even though there Nepal and Iran seem to muddy the water somewhat. All of this being said, I'd therefore eventually expect a slow down for EU (i.e. two VB's between 2,000 - 4,000 CN's, followed by 0 for September), in order to help SA, AS and, partially, AF to catch up. This means you will have to be fully ready and prepared for any interview in September, as you then must be successful during the interview session itself and can only allow a v e r y short AP period, if any. Makes sense?

Saludos,

EURO2014
 
CP1983 said:
Ye and Raevsky was out by nearly a full vb last year - 3k. Not exactly mr reliable.
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He was out by one hell of a lot more than that!!! When he started the year he was in the low 30's - he only raised his estimates once we identified NACARA as a possibility and then continued to forecast a brick wall would be hit at about 38k on his most optimistic estimates (which we almost bullied him into).
 
n.n. said:
Actually, raevsky does not say that EU goes current this year. He predicts 42xxx - 43xxx as well.
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The difference between EU 42xxx - 43xxx and current is actually very small indeed - just a few hundred cases.... just sayin'
 
Britsimon said:
He was out by one hell of a lot more than that!!! When he started the year he was in the low 30's - he only raised his estimates once we identified NACARA as a possibility and then continued to forecast a brick wall would be hit at about 38k on his most optimistic estimates (which we almost bullied him into).
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Absolutely, he acted out as "Mr. Doom" last year, trying to frighten DV 2014 folks into desperation, non accessible to any reasonable arguments from others until the very end... By the way, why did we bring this moron up here in the first place? o_O
 
EURO2014 said:
Absolutely, he acted out as "Mr. Doom" last year, trying to frighten DV 2014 folks into desperation, non accessible to any reasonable arguments from others until the very end... By the way, why did we bring this moron up here in the first place? o_O
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LOL - sounds like you were not a fan. I actually was more of a fan in a way. He had a horrible communication style but his statistical information was generally as good as anything we had at the time. Of course - we know more now... :p
 
Britsimon said:
LOL - sounds like you were not a fan. I actually was more of a fan in a way. He had a horrible communication style but his statistical information was generally as good as anything we had at the time. Of course - we know more now... :p
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I always thought Raevsky did what he did to alarm and unnecessarily frighten DV 2014 folks with high CN's last year. As you know, we were very much part of this group last year with our EU37,9xx and, to the best of me, truly could not find much humor in his "work" back then. Looking back to a successful DV closing, I probably can find more humor in it now, considering that his predictions turned out to be consistently inaccurate. In fact, I liked Sloner much better than him, at least he wasn't trying hard to put people down, even though his predictions were consistently too high. Anyways... :)
 
EURO2014 said:
I always thought Raevsky did what he did to alarm and unnecessarily frighten DV 2014 folks with high CN's last year. As you know, we were very much part of this group last year with our EU37,9xx and, to the best of me, truly could not find much humor in his "work" back then. Looking back to a successful DV closing, I probably can find more humor in it now, considering that his predictions turned out to be consistently inaccurate. In fact, I liked Sloner much better than him, at least he wasn't trying hard to put people down, even though his predictions were consistently too high. Anyways... :)
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I'm not sure raevsky's intention was necessarily to alarm people, but he knew he was doing so and didn't seem to care about it. While one might look back with some amusement now, I certainly hope there wasn't anyone who missed out on a visa because they believed him.
 
EURO2014 said:
I always thought Raevsky did what he did to alarm and unnecessarily frighten DV 2014 folks with high CN's last year. As you know, we were very much part of this group last year with our EU37,9xx and, to the best of me, truly could not find much humor in his "work" back then. Looking back to a successful DV closing, I probably can find more humor in it now, considering that his predictions turned out to be consistently inaccurate. In fact, I liked Sloner much better than him, at least he wasn't trying hard to put people down, even though his predictions were consistently too high. Anyways... :)
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Raevsky was wrong because he paid too much attention to the darn numbers without applying common sense. Sloner was wrong because he spent the whole year denying the logical and common sense explanation about why 2012 was not a good example to base the model on. There might be a cultural reason behind both cases...

SusieQQQ said:
I'm not sure raevsky's intention was necessarily to alarm people, but he knew he was doing so and didn't seem to care about it. While one might look back with some amusement now, I certainly hope there wasn't anyone who missed out on a visa because they believed him.
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Yeah - I agree it wasn't his intention, but you point out a valid concern. I find myself in a similar position. I could be wrong in the ranges I am telling people, and I therefore sprinkle in a far amount of wiggle room pixie dust. Ultimately people can choose to believe what they want to believe, including those that believe a higher power has singled them out for a visa at AF89799....
 
I am quite new to all these stories, but I ran through raevsky's forum. As far as I understand, he was claiming that cut-off should have been around 38,xxx. When the final cut-off was 40,150 he said that there would not be enough visas and actually DS ran out of visas in the middle of August. So, actually, as far as I understand he was not so much wrong. Cut off in the range of 39,000 should have been more accurate in DV2014. What sense does it make to have cut-off number at 40,xxx when you run out of available visas around 38,xxx?
 
n.n. said:
I am quite new to all these stories, but I ran through raevsky's forum. As far as I understand, he was claiming that cut-off should have been around 38,xxx. When the final cut-off was 40,150 he said that there would not be enough visas and actually DS ran out of visas in the middle of August. So, actually, as far as I understand he was not so much wrong. Cut off in the range of 39,000 should have been more accurate in DV2014. What sense does it make to have cut-off number at 40,xxx when you run out of available visas around 38,xxx?
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What is your source for visas running out in the middle of August?
 
n.n. said:
I am quite new to all these stories, but I ran through raevsky's forum. As far as I understand, he was claiming that cut-off should have been around 38,xxx. When the final cut-off was 40,150 he said that there would not be enough visas and actually DS ran out of visas in the middle of August. So, actually, as far as I understand he was not so much wrong. Cut off in the range of 39,000 should have been more accurate in DV2014. What sense does it make to have cut-off number at 40,xxx when you run out of available visas around 38,xxx?
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Yep - you are late to the party, so you don't know what he said earlier on, and in the end visas did not run out in mid August or at 38XXX. But other than that he "was not so much wrong"....
 
Ok then. Seems that I am really late to the party. This year his estimations are more optimistic and that is why I want to believe that he is competent :)
Nevertheless, I hope for the best.
 
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