• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

Visa Bulletin for July 2015

Candeu said:
is it possible not to receive 2nl after becoming current?
or to receive 2nl, but not receive visas, as in August they may be finished?

Thanks!
Click to expand...

we need to stay positive...they will not run out of visas...at the end of July there will be 15500 visas issued..so still there will be visas left
 
guestgulkan said:
Thanks - I feel like my chances of going current have dropped below 50%, what do you think? (changed my signature slightly)

I agree the number will be 14XX but more likely 1400 based on the last couple of months.
Click to expand...
Hmmm low 14 xx range. Yeah possibly. Best of luck.
 
haha this is really hard this time. last year they knocked 81k for AF region. can someone plus explain why this low pace for AF region
 
Britsimon said:
Pretty much as expected (and guesstimated). I'm glad they went to the high end on AF (actually 250 above my highest number), that puts them into striking distance to break 55, maybe even 60 for the final. It also tells me they are seeing the no show issue.

EU is also at the top of my range. Nice!

AS is a bit under what I thought. I expected at least 8000. Nepal is at the high end of what I thought, so whatever jump for AS is left (after Iran gets figured out) has to happen in the final VB. Jumps of 3000 - 4000 are possible, but that still depends on the final numbers for Iran.

Nice bump for SA region - that was more than I thought - but it makes sense. OC would have been better off with 25 more, but I still see the final starting with 14.
Click to expand...

Do you thing in last month would be a big jump,normally last month jump was small in previous years too (eg 2014..) because they reduce the work load in last month what is your opinion
 
jamiechabs said:
haha this is really hard this time. last year they knocked 81k for AF region. can someone plus explain why this low pace for AF region
Click to expand...

Up to last year DS261 submission was through post and people who could not afford it did not fill it. This year it was online and free so people just filled it and thought if we have money when our turn comes we will go. So embassies scheduled interviews for these people but they just didn't show up. This is why vb is slow.
 
usamommy2015 said:
Up to last year DS261 submission was through post and people who could not afford it did not fill it. This year it was online and free so people just filled it and thought if we have money when our turn comes we will go. So embassies scheduled interviews for these people but they just didn't show up. This is why vb is slow.
Click to expand...
ok Nway it makes sense when you say like that. but o thought may be since they had just started with this online thing at a certain extent some workers had not got familiar with it
 
Britsimon said:
That is why I said that would be the threat. If Nepal takes 3500 AND Iran take 3500 then we would NOT see 9000+. ROA already has 750 visas issued - and the cases already curent would probably fill the remaining quota. However, 500 available visas for ROA equals about 3000 CNs. So - that is where the math comes from...
Click to expand...


the assumption is based on that Asia still has to quota of 8000 visas,
but based on 2015's slow move, could it be that Asia no longer has that many visas any more?
 
Britsimon said:
If someone had not submited their DS260, or submitted it late then they would not get the 2NL when current.

Regarding finishing in August - that is what the bulletin progression is intended to avoid - they try and spread out the visas and workload which ensures visas will be available in September. When cases are scheduled they are allocated a visa per selectee - however, if a country hits the 7% limit that can cause them to cancel scheduled interviews since they assume a level of refusal and may not be expecting AP clearances - or people showing up with babies in their arms.
Click to expand...
Thank you all for clarifications. did you mean the visas are allocated per selectee or per all family members of a selectee?
So 7% means, for dv 2015 for example, 3500 visas out of 50000?
 
Candeu said:
Thank you all for clarifications. did you mean the visas are allocated per selectee or per all family members of a selectee?
So 7% means, for dv 2015 for example, 3500 visas out of 50000?
Click to expand...

The visas are one for each family member. So - mom, dad and 2 kids - 50,000 - 4.

Yes 7% is based on the 50k - although since the theoretical visa allocation started at 55,000, there is an argument that we can see a country exceed 3500 by a bit (and we have seen that in some previous years).
 
Britsimon said:
The visas are one for each family member. So - mom, dad and 2 kids - 50,000 - 4.

Yes 7% is based on the 50k - although since the theoretical visa allocation started at 55,000, there is an argument that we can see a country exceed 3500 by a bit (and we have seen that in some previous years).
Click to expand...
Thanks, Simon!
I think only a few countries in EU, like U2, could hit 3500 visa limit. So this is rarely applicable..
 
Candeu said:
Thanks, Simon!
I think only a few countries in EU, like U2, could hit 3500 visa limit. So this is rarely applicable..
Click to expand...

With the U2 success rate OF COURSE it is rare. It is an upper limit - that is all. It will be hit by Nepal, most likely Egypt, and has in the past by Iran
 
Britsimon said:
If someone had not submited their DS260, or submitted it late then they would not get the 2NL when current.

Regarding finishing in August - that is what the bulletin progression is intended to avoid - they try and spread out the visas and workload which ensures visas will be available in September. When cases are scheduled they are allocated a visa per selectee - however, if a country hits the 7% limit that can cause them to cancel scheduled interviews since they assume a level of refusal and may not be expecting AP clearances - or people showing up with babies in their arms.
Click to expand...
The matter is that in other forums I read that in mid August 2014 visas for EU were finished, but embassies were still issuing visas till mid September 2014.
I do not know if this is true or not.
 
Candeu said:
The matter is that in other forums I read that in mid August 2014 visas for EU were finished, but embassies were still issuing visas till mid September 2014.
I do not know if this is true or not.
Click to expand...

Finishing the VB numbers makes a lot of people assume that numbers are finished - when in fact, visas did get issued right into September. There were some oddball scenarios where one embassy was refusing to issue visas to the newborn children of a couple because visas were exhausted, whilst at the same time and for days later there were still visas being issued within that region. There will be oddball things this year also - but you can't control that - so just relax and not torment yourself with all the things that might go wrong.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top