Pretty much as expected (and guesstimated). I'm glad they went to the high end on AF (actually 250 above my highest number), that puts them into striking distance to break 55, maybe even 60 for the final. It also tells me they are seeing the no show issue.
EU is also at the top of my range. Nice!
AS is a bit under what I thought. I expected at least 8000. Nepal is at the high end of what I thought, so whatever jump for AS is left (after Iran gets figured out) has to happen in the final VB. Jumps of 3000 - 4000 are possible, but that still depends on the final numbers for Iran.
Nice bump for SA region - that was more than I thought - but it makes sense. OC would have been better off with 25 more, but I still see the final starting with 14.
Ok, I know that all high CN-holders winners from Asia are freaking out like me, it was a very disappointing VB. Allow me to share some random ideas that came to my head I think may be responsible for the incredibly low cutoff. As always I'd like to hear what our dear experts and members think:
- The AS regional quota: I don't know if KCC is still aiming for 8000-8500 visas for Asia. Some respected members have correctly came up with accurate regional quotas for last year. Maybe these have changed this year? It seems doubtful that AS can still achieve such number of visas unless there is a dramatic increase in AP clearance, which brings us to the next point.
- Iranian AP: Maybe KCC knows how fast the APs are going to clear, and how many visas Iran is getting in the end, and they're adjusting the pace accordingly?
- Maybe KCC is hoping to fullfil
Nepal's 7% and be done with it in August, and as soon as that is done, the jump for AS will happen. We saw last year the 3800 jump of August and the 650 progress of September, maybe the opposite will happen this year. I know that many experts mostly agree with idea and perhaps it is the most logical one. But for myself, I think that something is
awefully off for AS this year. It didn't even make the lower end of Simon's predictions.
I kinda hate to admit, but a small part of me believe that Siliconesinger is right about this, I fear the max cutoff of AS will be around 9500. And after all the disappointments of this year, is a 3000 jump still likely?
@EURO2014 Thank you for your comforting words during last month's stressful wait. And it looks like you were right about the big jump after a slow one, that's exactly what happened today.
