Upcoming month's visa bulletin: MARCH 2014 ~ Discussion/Predictions/Chat
- Thread starter Mijoro
- Start date
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Looks very nice hopefuly will become true 
Thanks sloner
Thanks sloner
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
I'm going with your predictions for EU. Those incremental increases look very sound to me.
These are Apr to Sep cut offs, which would mean July for us - that gives us plenty of time to prepare everything.
7000 for Aisa is way over optimistic I’d rather say it will be 5500-6000 range...!!
dvbibasd
Member
April- 7000 (+/-500)
may- 11000 nepal 9000 (+/-500)
june- 15000 nepal 10000 (+/-500)
july- 18000 nepal 11500 (+/-500)
sept- current nepal 13000 (+/-500)
note- iran has three foreign embassy probably they wont get any special cut off.
April- 6k Iran 5k
may- 8k Iran 5.5k
june- 10.5k Iran 6k,nepal 9.5k
july- 13k Iran 6.5k nepal 10.5k
Aug- 16k Iran 8k nepal 12k
sept- current Iran 9k nepal 13k
ModNAmE
New Member
Iran will not get cut off cuz they have 3 choices for interview and in other hand success rate is less i.e less work in embassy
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Cutoffs are not only based on embassy workload but on trying to spread the issuance through the year, from what I understand.
franko
Well-Known Member
I was trying to be reasonable with a dose of optimism
although I would prefer KCC/USCIS to go full Oprah "You get a visa, you get a visa, you get a visa....eevveerryybbooddyy getsssss a visssssaaaaaaaaaaaaaa and a car on top of that" I know we have been saying over last few months that each bulletin was suppose to be the one that determines the progress throughout the rest of the year but I gotta feeling April will either give people hope or crush their dreams
Typo
Last edited by a moderator:
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I was trying to be reasonable with a dose if optimism
I know we have been saying over last few months that each bulletin was suppose to be the one that determines the progress throughout the rest of the year but I gotta feeling April will either give people hope or crush their dreams
The full Oprah would be awesome - if only!
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
I was trying to be reasonable with a dose if optimism
I know we have been saying over last few months that each bulletin was suppose to be the one that determines the progress throughout the rest of the year but I gotta feeling April will either give people hope or crush their dreams
I think MAY month will be the one that will do or die !!!!!!
Visa for all sounds so gooooooooood.
loveubritsimon
Registered Users (C)
hi guys
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam...mmigrant Visa Control System_operation of.pdf
Simon can you go through this and explain something... this is a file stating about the cutoff about how it is done...
Simon can you go through this and explain something... this is a file stating about the cutoff about how it is done...
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
ok about my prediction i can say that this should be the month where the big jump might occur... as it has been europe will surely will have good jump... africa might have slight more cutoff then of last year... asia depends on if any of this country gets special cutoff ie Iran and Nepal...other wise for asia bulls eye is of simon guess that might be like 6000+or-500
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
mate donot see how many embassies does Iran have we should see what is AP rate of iran in such case with such high cases of AP... and also turkey embassy has said that it might take minimum 2 months for clearance of AP... so it will be very hard for them to clear all AP cases within last months..
April- 7000 (+/-500)
may- 11000 nepal 9000 (+/-500)
june- 15000 nepal 10000 (+/-500)
july- 18000 nepal 11500 (+/-500)
sept- current nepal 13000 (+/-500)
note- iran has three foreign embassy probably they wont get any special cut off.
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
OK I Have just copied what was written in the documents of that DV pdf about cutoffs
THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT
NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM
The Department of State is responsible for administering the provisions of the Immigration and
Nationality Act (INA) relating to the numerical limitations on immigrant visa issuances. This
information sheet explains the operation of the immigrant number allotment and control system.
1. HOW THE SYSTEM OPERATES:
At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report from each consular post
listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to
numerical limitation. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability/preference/priority date.
No names are reported. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified
demand is tabulated.
VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.
If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily
qualified demand, the category is considered "Current". For example: If the monthly allocation
target is 3,000 and we only have demand for 1,000 applicants the category can be "Current”.
Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of
numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be
"oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established. The cut-off date is the
priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a
visa number. For example: If the monthly target is 3,000 and we have demand for 8,000
applicants, then we would need to establish a cut-off date so that only 3,000 numbers would be
allocated. In this case, the cut-off would be the priority date of the 3,001st applicant.
Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.)
VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each
month. The dates are immediately transmitted to consular posts and Citizenship and Immigration
Services (CIS), and also published in the Visa Bulletin and online at the CA Web site
(www.travel.state.gov). Visa allotments for use during that month are transmitted to consular
posts. CIS requests visa allotments for adjustment of status cases only when all other case
processing has been completed.
THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT
NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM
The Department of State is responsible for administering the provisions of the Immigration and
Nationality Act (INA) relating to the numerical limitations on immigrant visa issuances. This
information sheet explains the operation of the immigrant number allotment and control system.
1. HOW THE SYSTEM OPERATES:
At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office (VO) receives a report from each consular post
listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to
numerical limitation. Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability/preference/priority date.
No names are reported. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified
demand is tabulated.
VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.
If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily
qualified demand, the category is considered "Current". For example: If the monthly allocation
target is 3,000 and we only have demand for 1,000 applicants the category can be "Current”.
Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of
numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be
"oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established. The cut-off date is the
priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a
visa number. For example: If the monthly target is 3,000 and we have demand for 8,000
applicants, then we would need to establish a cut-off date so that only 3,000 numbers would be
allocated. In this case, the cut-off would be the priority date of the 3,001st applicant.
Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa
number. The cut-off dates are the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand
for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh of a month are grouped
under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.)
VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each
month. The dates are immediately transmitted to consular posts and Citizenship and Immigration
Services (CIS), and also published in the Visa Bulletin and online at the CA Web site
(www.travel.state.gov). Visa allotments for use during that month are transmitted to consular
posts. CIS requests visa allotments for adjustment of status cases only when all other case
processing has been completed.
Rayme,
I think document "THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM" applies to family and Employment based visas only.
I think it has nothing to do with DV visas.
Family and Employment based visas are driven by priority date. DV visas are driven by case number.
For example, Us citizen petitions for adult married son. It is preference F3. The petition date is 03/03/2013. Once Petition is approved - the date 03/03/2013 becomes a priority date for this petition. It will take years and years to finally get visa granted because in the current Visa bulletin preference F3 cut-off date is May 15, 2003. That means that now visas are available only for petitions with priority date May 15, 2003 and earlier.
I think document "THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM" applies to family and Employment based visas only.
I think it has nothing to do with DV visas.
Family and Employment based visas are driven by priority date. DV visas are driven by case number.
For example, Us citizen petitions for adult married son. It is preference F3. The petition date is 03/03/2013. Once Petition is approved - the date 03/03/2013 becomes a priority date for this petition. It will take years and years to finally get visa granted because in the current Visa bulletin preference F3 cut-off date is May 15, 2003. That means that now visas are available only for petitions with priority date May 15, 2003 and earlier.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
I also checked it its the link at the bottom of the visas bulletin page.
It explains what is a cutoff for all immigratant cathegories..
Nothing that we don't know already rayme...
It explains what is a cutoff for all immigratant cathegories..
Nothing that we don't know already rayme...
Vladek,
Where do you see explanation of DV related cut-offs in "THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT
NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM" document?http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin.html
Yes, they mentioned 7 % per-country limit - but the whole document is about cut-off Dates (not cut-off case number).
This is how I read this document.
Experts, am I correct?
Thanks,