Dear simon
After I checked all the cutt offs on the last 5 years (excluding dv 12) I put all of them together than I devided them on 5, than I got my own number neh!
Now I added a pecentage on each cutt of because of the 40k extra selectees . Than according to my intuition, I considered the publicshut down will have an impact untill february ! Not that february cut offs will be than small no ! I still said that will be a considerable move in there, that's why the big jump will occur in march month, according to me.
Hope u understand my english
Just my opinion like u say