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Up coming May month visa bulletin.

I agree also and even Reavsky and Simon predicted that even months ago....


vladek15425 said:
One two three :)
Next vb will definitely better than this one there is no doubt !
But the sad part of it is that things seems to be runing on skywalker axiom :(
So some will lose out at the end .....
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wow wow wow Asia..... Now Am starting to feel the heat :-( seems like a very big disappointment awaits for the high case numbers (>10500) for Nepal and Iran. With the visa bulletin progressing, its very likely that the country limit would hit at or around 10500. I wish I am wrong, cos I too would be left out :(
 
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dolopar said:
wow wow wow Asia..... Now Am starting to feel the heat :-( seems like a very big disappointment awaits for the high case numbers (>10500) for Nepal and Iran. With the visa bulletin progressing, its very likely that the country limit would hit at or around 10500. I wish I am wrong, cos I too would be left out :(
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Don't lose hope yet my friend, we still have 4 more VBs to decide the outcomes
 
dolopar said:
wow wow wow Asia..... Now Am starting to feel the heat :-( seems like a very big disappointment awaits for the high case numbers (>10500) for Nepal and Iran. With the visa bulletin progressing, its very likely that the country limit would hit at or around 10500. I wish I am wrong, cos I too would be left out :(
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Yes, I think with the current progress and take up rate for Iran and Nepal, it might hit the limit earlier than we thought. For every 100 CN, Iran has 48 selectees and Nepal has 38 selectees. So, that mean Iran will have 4000 selectees up to 8300 CN and Nepal will have 4000 selectees up to 10600 CN. I think Iran with 4000 selectees it will not hit the country quota yet but Nepal will. So Nepal above 10k CN is now consider risky. Iran can still goes up to 9000 CN I believe but AP processing time is crucial for Iranian. Rest of Asia will only see some good progress when CN hit 8300 (expected to be in Jun or July) and huge jump when CN reach to 10500 (expected to be in July or August).
 
kayend said:
Yes, I think with the current progress and take up rate for Iran and Nepal, it might hit the limit earlier than we thought. For every 100 CN, Iran has 48 selectees and Nepal has 38 selectees. So, that mean Iran will have 4000 selectees up to 8300 CN and Nepal will have 4000 selectees up to 10600 CN. I think Iran with 4000 selectees it will not hit the country quota yet but Nepal will. So Nepal above 10k CN is now consider risky. Iran can still goes up to 9000 CN I believe but AP processing time is crucial for Iranian. Rest of Asia will only see some good progress when CN hit 8300 (expected to be in Jun or July) and huge jump when CN reach to 10500 (expected to be in July or August).
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Agreed Kayend
 
Birahi_kancha said:
You are correct that we will not see big jump in Asia until Nepal and Iran are in the lead in the game. I still expect the same rate of cutoff at least until July in case of Nepal. Upto 6500 case number, Nepal will have about 2500 winners interviewed. After July , Nepal will be near the country limit. Then we will see big jump in Asia cutoff.
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Can you measure that big jump?????????????? how many CN will it cover???
 
kayend said:
Yes, I think with the current progress and take up rate for Iran and Nepal, it might hit the limit earlier than we thought. For every 100 CN, Iran has 48 selectees and Nepal has 38 selectees. So, that mean Iran will have 4000 selectees up to 8300 CN and Nepal will have 4000 selectees up to 10600 CN. I think Iran with 4000 selectees it will not hit the country quota yet but Nepal will. So Nepal above 10k CN is now consider risky. Iran can still goes up to 9000 CN I believe but AP processing time is crucial for Iranian. Rest of Asia will only see some good progress when CN hit 8300 (expected to be in Jun or July) and huge jump when CN reach to 10500 (expected to be in July or August).
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Agreed totally.In 5k to 9k,there arenot significant less nepalese selectees as we have expected before.so VB is not taking its pace in Asia.So as Britsimon said, Nepal must be the first country to hit its country limit sooner around 11k.
 
problem i have is, Why they have selected this much of 23k selectees from Asia in this time, if they are expecting to make September cutoff around 15k??? did they make a mistake like in 2012 ? why they are going to subject people in to frustration like this..........
 
Good evening, guys! How do you feel about next month, what we should expect for? How much KCC will increse the number for EU? what is your prediction? it will be interesting to hear every opinion.
 
Nerandima said:
problem i have is, Why they have selected this much of 23k selectees from Asia in this time, if they are expecting to make September cutoff around 15k??? did they make a mistake like in 2012 ? why they are going to subject people in to frustration like this..........
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Anyone to comment on this????
 
Nerandima said:
problem i have is, Why they have selected this much of 23k selectees from Asia in this time, if they are expecting to make September cutoff around 15k??? did they make a mistake like in 2012 ? why they are going to subject people in to frustration like this..........
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Nerandima :
Its always been like this on the previous dv lotteries(taking extra selectees to make sure)!
Only 50k visas for more than 100000 selectees.
Now this year there is 140k :( thats why its sounds unfair i know ! But they are just doing thier job...
 
vladek15425 said:
Nerandima :
Its always been like this on the previous dv lotteries(taking extra selectees to make sure)!
Only 50k visas for more than 100000 selectees.
Now this year there is 140k :( thats why its sounds unfair i know ! But they are just doing thier job...
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How many CN will cover the big jump???? What will be the max CN will they interview in AS ???
 
Nerandima said:
problem i have is, Why they have selected this much of 23k selectees from Asia in this time, if they are expecting to make September cutoff around 15k??? did they make a mistake like in 2012 ? why they are going to subject people in to frustration like this..........
Click to expand...

We have discussed this many times. No one knows for sure why they have selected so many this year. Sloner believes that 140k selectees are necessary to fill the global quota based on 2012 response and success rates. However, common sense and CEAC the data is clearly showing that is incorrect. My belief is that the 30% increase in selectees is a mistake, based on 2012 figures that KCC used from a formula (i.e. they made the same mistake Sloner made). It seems very clear that many people will be disappointed this year - although for AS region I would not be surprised to see the numbers increase rapidly once Nepal and Iran are maxed out. Remember, around 80% of the cases in AS are from those two countries and once the two countries hit those country limits, only the 20% will get interviews and those interviews will take place all over Asia as opposed to the uneven distribution we see currently. So, July/August/September will be a busy time with high jumps in AS region.
 
britsimon said:
We have discussed this many times. No one knows for sure why they have selected so many this year. Sloner believes that 140k selectees are necessary to fill the global quota based on 2012 response and success rates. However, common sense and CEAC the data is clearly showing that is incorrect. My belief is that the 30% increase in selectees is a mistake, based on 2012 figures that KCC used from a formula (i.e. they made the same mistake Sloner made). It seems very clear that many people will be disappointed this year - although for AS region I would not be surprised to see the numbers increase rapidly once Nepal and Iran are maxed out. Remember, around 80% of the cases in AS are from those two countries and once the two countries hit those country limits, only the 20% will get interviews and those interviews will take place all over Asia as opposed to the uneven distribution we see currently. So, July/August/September will be a busy time with high jumps in AS region.
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My loving friend.. As usual, thank u so much.... I feel empty these days... This has destroyed my lot of future plans.... Anyway how are you doing ?? Please share your experiences about the most powerful, best country in the world?? what are the good and the bad there???
 
Nerandima said:
My loving friend.. As usual, thank u so much.... I feel empty these days... This has destroyed my lot of future plans.... Anyway how are you doing ?? Please share your experiences about the most powerful, best country in the world?? what are the good and the bad there???
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I am going to post a detailed update in the next day or two...
 
I'm interested to see what you think of it all simon. Also Raevsky and his take on it would I've interesting also.
 
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