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Up coming May month visa bulletin.

mijoro said:
I'm interested to see what you think of it all simon. Also Raevsky and his take on it would I've interesting also.
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OC is (I hope) finally starting to accelerate. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 300 jump next month and thereafter. The refusals are higher than last year (5 times more) but the progress to now has been horribly slow for OC - and that I just don't understand. I still believe we will see isas for the low 2k range - but I don't think we will see current for the region. However, they MUST increase the OC pace otherwise that is all a pipedream...
 
According to the ideas and investigations of our helpful people, 80% of interviews in AS are from Iran & Nepal ... Did the same thing happen in the last year ( DV 2013)? if it happened, why they didn't put special cut off to Iran & Nepal.....
 
Nerandima said:
According to the ideas and investigations of our helpful people, 80% of interviews in AS are from Iran & Nepal ... Did the same thing happen in the last year ( DV 2013)? if it happened, why they didn't put special cut off to Iran & Nepal.....
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I think you guys are confused. 80% is the domination of selectees from Iran and Nepal in the low CN # to 14k because of the number of entries from both countries are much higher than Rest of Asia combined. So, 7000 visas will goes to Iran and Nepal for sure. So it will left about 3000 for Rest of Asia. You might ask why both countries take 7k visas and all others get only 3k visas. Because Nepal and Iran have high entries as I mentioned earlier. If the same entries going in every year, you will see the same pattern for Asia. Early CN # dominated by Iran and Nepal by 80% and Rest of Asia fight for the left over. This will happen even in DV15. But the question now is this, how far the Rest of Asia CN can go? Nepal and Iran will stop somewhere due to country limit but Rest of Asia will push for the regional limit. Raevsky predicts it will go from 13k to 19k. Others generally think that AS will goes at least 15k and above but no one can tell where it will stop for Rest of Asia at this point. The only way to know better is to keep monitor the CEAC data and VB. The good news is that in Asia after 5 months, we have about 2.2k visas issued, which is very low.
 
kayend said:
I think you guys are confused. 80% is the domination of selectees from Iran and Nepal in the low CN # to 14k because of the number of entries from both countries are much higher than Rest of Asia combined. So, 7000 visas will goes to Iran and Nepal for sure. So it will left about 3000 for Rest of Asia. You might ask why both countries take 7k visas and all others get only 3k visas. Because Nepal and Iran have high entries as I mentioned earlier. If the same entries going in every year, you will see the same pattern for Asia. Early CN # dominated by Iran and Nepal by 80% and Rest of Asia fight for the left over. This will happen even in DV15. But the question now is this, how far the Rest of Asia CN can go? Nepal and Iran will stop somewhere due to country limit but Rest of Asia will push for the regional limit. Raevsky predicts it will go from 13k to 19k. Others generally think that AS will goes at least 15k and above but no one can tell where it will stop for Rest of Asia at this point. The only way to know better is to keep monitor the CEAC data and VB. The good news is that in Asia after 5 months, we have about 2.2k visas issued, which is very low.
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Thanks for the advise my friend... understood.... what i'm trying to ask is did Iran & Nepal dominate the same in last year (DV2013) also? if so, we didn't see any cut off to them in last year? So i doubt whether there will not be a special cu off to them in this year also......
 
Nerandima said:
Thanks for the advise my friend... understood.... what i'm trying to ask is did Iran & Nepal dominate the same in last year (DV2013) also? if so, we didn't see any cut off to them in last year? So i doubt whether there will not be a special cu off to them in this year also......
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I think there will only be special cut off when Iran and Nepal hit their country limit. If take up rate is less than 4k from either of them then it no special cut off needed but so far the take up rate is still high.

In DV13, Nepal and Iran also dominated Asia with 7.1k visa issued out of 9.4k. We don't see special cut off for Asia is because everyone has their interviews but in DV14, we have more demand than supply and Nepal never hit the limit last year but this year it will. So special cut off needed if Nepal hit the limit before Sept.
 
Kayend said:
I think there will only be special cut off when Iran and Nepal hit their country limit. If take up rate is less than 4k from either of them then it no special cut off needed but so far the take up rate is still high.

In DV13, Nepal and Iran also dominated Asia with 7.1k visa issued out of 9.4k. We don't see special cut off for Asia is because everyone has their interviews but in DV14, we have more demand than supply and Nepal never hit the limit last year but this year it will. So special cut off needed if Nepal hit the limit before Sept.
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So now dear Kayend,

What do you predict the September's VB cut-off?
 
Kayend said:
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/asia-dv14-progress-from-jun-to-sept.320723/

Check the latest info for Asia from above link.
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Thanks for the nice prediction. I got a bit worried about my case as you predicted there, because you predicted that Asia's September cut off will be 16700 but my one is AS1672x and i am from Afghanistan, the country with around 440 selectees and are with higher case numbers. Can you please share your views about my case with this context bro?
 
dmonis said:
Thanks for the nice prediction. I got a bit worried about my case as you predicted there, because you predicted that Asia's September cut off will be 16700 but my one is AS1672x and i am from Afghanistan, the country with around 440 selectees and are with higher case numbers. Can you please share your views about my case with this context bro?
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My prediction is a conservative one and to me 16.7k is consider safe range with the assumption of Asia quota of 9.4k. You are very close and you might just squeeze in easily if any of the variables changed to our advantage. Anyway, no one can be certain now and we all are just playing with #. So let wait for 3 more weeks so. Good luck to us all and while waiting there is World Cup to take away our attention a little from this DV craziness.
 
Kayend said:
My prediction is a conservative one and to me 16.7k is consider safe range with the assumption of Asia quota of 9.4k. You are very close and you might just squeeze in easily if any of the variables changed to our advantage. Anyway, no one can be certain now and we all are just playing with #. So let wait for 3 more weeks so. Good luck to us all and while waiting there is World Cup to take away our attention a little from this DV craziness.
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Thanks for such a quick and kin response.
And :);):):) For the world cup!
Wish you good luck and i wish i would know your CN too.

Regards
 
Kayend said:
My prediction is a conservative one and to me 16.7k is consider safe range with the assumption of Asia quota of 9.4k. You are very close and you might just squeeze in easily if any of the variables changed to our advantage. Anyway, no one can be certain now and we all are just playing with #. So let wait for 3 more weeks so. Good luck to us all and while waiting there is World Cup to take away our attention a little from this DV craziness.
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So true ;)
The goal of sir percy was magnificiant !
I mean van percie lol
 
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