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sloner axiom :)

vladek15425 said:
Ok i will record +- 2100 for oc , do you think there will be a vosa quota increase for OC perhaps ?
Bieside nacara, like taking from af or eu and put in in oc?
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The only change in participation in DV-14 was Guatemala (SA) included. SA, NA and AS are overrepresented regions, and AF, EU ad OC are underrepresented ones. A change in country selection in one of overrepresented regions would be caused (if you know the 203(c) formula) by a redistribution of quotas in overrepresented regions. That means quota for SA had a small increase (a small jump; it should not be huge because the population of Guatemala is small compared to population of overrepresented countries all together, the ones who participate in DV only) and quotas for AS and NA had a small decrease (a small jump) - Guatemala being included is an indication of what happened. The fact that no new countries were added into underrepresented regions, or none was excluded means the quotas in underrepresented regions did not have any jumps and could be affected very little.
So, I would expect almost no changes in OC, EU and AF quotas. A small drop in NA and AS, a small increase in SA
 
raevsky said:
The only change in participation in DV-14 was Guatemala (SA) included. SA, NA and AS are overrepresented regions, and AF, EU ad OC are underrepresented ones. A change in country selection in one of overrepresented regions would be caused (if you know the 203(c) formula) by a redistribution of quotas in overrepresented regions. That means quota for SA had a small increase (a small jump; it should not be huge because the population of Guatemala is small compared to population of overrepresented countries all together, the ones who participate in DV only) and quotas for AS and NA had a small decrease (a small jump) - Guatemala being included is an indication of what happened. The fact that no new countries were added into underrepresented regions, or none was excluded means the quotas in underrepresented regions did not have any jumps and could be affected very little.
So, I would expect almost no changes in OC, EU and AF quotas. A small drop in NA and AS, a small increase in SA
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Very clear thanks
 
You are forgetting about huge additional selection in 2003. 86169 does not include that.
The way how I see that is the following.
1. In 2003 they improved checks for duplicates tremendously. They had to do additional selection because of that, because consulates refused a lot of applications. So, in DV-2004 they did it during regular selection. In both 2003 and 2004 they had real non-current cutoffs in September.
2. I am not sure about 2000, but I suspect it is the same.
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You know it. I have no doubt. 2003-duplicates, 2004 - electronic application, 2000- signature.
This was done to combat fraud.
In 2013 and 2014 they also apply the method to combat fraud. What are the methods? Partially revealed to us report OIG on Ukraine.
 
Sloner said:
You know it. I have no doubt. 2003-duplicates, 2004 - electronic application, 2000- signature.
This was done to combat fraud.
In 2013 and 2014 they also apply the method to combat fraud. What are the methods? Partially revealed to us report OIG on Ukraine.
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So far the density of non-holes in OC in DV-14 (for those who sent docs to KCC) is at least 47%, according to CEAC data, (and that is early January) vs about 52% in D-13 (and that is in late May). By late May it could increase because people still could apply. So even if the check improved and even if the number of disqualifications increased (that is doubtful), it increases insignificantly.
 
raevsky said:
The only change in participation in DV-14 was Guatemala (SA) included. SA, NA and AS are overrepresented regions, and AF, EU ad OC are underrepresented ones. A change in country selection in one of overrepresented regions would be caused (if you know the 203(c) formula) by a redistribution of quotas in overrepresented regions. That means quota for SA had a small increase (a small jump; it should not be huge because the population of Guatemala is small compared to population of overrepresented countries all together, the ones who participate in DV only) and quotas for AS and NA had a small decrease (a small jump) - Guatemala being included is an indication of what happened. The fact that no new countries were added into underrepresented regions, or none was excluded means the quotas in underrepresented regions did not have any jumps and could be affected very little.
So, I would expect almost no changes in OC, EU and AF quotas. A small drop in NA and AS, a small increase in SA
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Hi Raevsky! Now that you're talking about SA, I really really want to know what your predictions are for this region. I already have some predictions for a few very kind friends, but your opinion mean a lot to me too (I know you know too much). I'm so worry about my number (I'm venezuelan, I'm sure you've read a few things about this country at the news) and want to be realistic. So, do you think they will go current as previous years at august? Will I even get a chance for interview? Will they interview up to 2000?
Thank you...
 
So far the density of non-holes in OC in DV-14 (for those who sent docs to KCC) is at least 47%, according to CEAC data, (and that is early January) vs about 52% in D-13 (and that is in late May). By late May it could increase because people still could apply. So even if the check improved and even if the number of disqualifications increased (that is doubtful), it increases insignificantly.
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Increased quota. More failures.
I know where you got such pessimism. Stop this game, you still will not work.:) You are not able to influence the masses.
Hi Raevsky! Now that you're talking about SA, I really really want to know what your predictions are for this region. I already have some predictions for a few very kind friends, but your opinion mean a lot to me too (I know you know too much). I'm so worry about my number (I'm venezuelan, I'm sure you've read a few things about this country at the news) and want to be realistic. So, do you think they will go current as previous years at august? Will I even get a chance for interview? Will they interview up to 2000?
Thank you...
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He knows no more than you.
 
Veronice said:
Hi Raevsky! Now that you're talking about SA, I really really want to know what your predictions are for this region. I already have some predictions for a few very kind friends, but your opinion mean a lot to me too (I know you know too much). I'm so worry about my number (I'm venezuelan, I'm sure you've read a few things about this country at the news) and want to be realistic. So, do you think they will go current as previous years at august? Will I even get a chance for interview? Will they interview up to 2000?
Thank you...
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Attribution for SA.
1250-1550 is regular estimate based on DV-13 numbers (we do not know the max number in SA, the best I know is 2xxx, and we do not know if the density of holes has changed)
7% on top is Cuban effect (enormous amount refusal in Havana), similar to Fiji effect. It could happen if it does not disappear later (it could be a fluctuation).

5% is Nacara effect (it could happen or not)
3% Guatemala effect (increase of quota because Guatemala has been added)
So, totally additional 3%-13% on top.

So, it would be 1290-1780. I would not be able to get a more precise figure.
 
Oh! He does! He even gets to understand you sometimes!!! And Britsimon... He sometimes understands what you say too!!! So, based on that, they DEFINITELY know more than me...
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Ok.
So you will not get an interview. Good luck in your country.
yours respectfully, Raevsky.
-1
 
raevsky said:
Attribution for SA.
1250-1550 is regular estimate based on DV-13 numbers (we do not know the max number in SA, the best I know is 2xxx, and we do not know if the density of holes has changed)
7% on top is Cuban effect (enormous amount refusal in Havana), similar to Fiji effect. It could happen if it does not disappear later (it could be a fluctuation).

5% is Nacara effect (it could happen or not)
3% Guatemala effect (increase of quota because Guatemala has been added)
So, totally additional 3%-13% on top.

So, it would be 1290-1780. I would not be able to get a more precise figure.
Click to expand...

Thank you for your estimates! And thank you for taking the time to respond! :)
 
raevsky said:
Attribution for SA.
1250-1550 is regular estimate based on DV-13 numbers (we do not know the max number in SA, the best I know is 2xxx, and we do not know if the density of holes has changed)
7% on top is Cuban effect (enormous amount refusal in Havana), similar to Fiji effect. It could happen if it does not disappear later (it could be a fluctuation).

5% is Nacara effect (it could happen or not)
3% Guatemala effect (increase of quota because Guatemala has been added)
So, totally additional 3%-13% on top.

So, it would be 1290-1780. I would not be able to get a more precise figure.
Click to expand...



You gave OC 1650 - 2150 knowing that dv13 they got 731 visas issued!
Now SA in dv13 got 938 visas issued but you only predict 1250-1550exluding and 1290-1780 including nacara?!
Is because there is no ""fidji effect'' in SA?
 
Sloner are you sure about cn2600?
My bad about the 18000 ! I get 2000 on the south american thread his name is audio.
Any one witnessed higher number than 2000?
 
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vladek15425 said:
You gave OC 1650 - 2150 knowing that dv13 they got 731 visas issued!
Now SA in dv13 got 938 visas issued but you only predict 1250-1550exluding and 1290-1780 including nacara?!
Is because there is no ""fidji effect'' in SA?
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SA has a similar Cuban effect (enormous rate of refusals in Havana). However, Cuba has much less proportion in SA than Fiji in OC, and also refusal rate for Fiji is much higher than for Cuba.
But it is based on DV-13 figures already, with all those affects on top.
 
raevsky said:
SA has a similar Cuban effect (enormous rate of refusals in Havana). However, Cuba has much less proportion in SA than Fiji in OC, and also refusal rate for Fiji is much higher than for Cuba.
But it is based on DV-13 figures already, with all those affects on top.
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higher cn in SA is 2xxx untill now do you mantain your last cut for sa at 1780 incl nacara or there might be a future adjustement?
 
Sloner are you sure about cn2600?
My bad about the 18000 ! I get 2000 on the south american thread his name is audio.
Any one witnessed higher number than 2000?
Click to expand...
I saw on the forum Venezuela.
 
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