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sloner axiom :)

Ok simon
If higer cn in 2013 for AF was 97xxx(I presume he had his interview because af was current) according to rafiko, and in 2011 dv I spotted AF91xxx which went current and he reported having succesfull interview.
Now from cn 97xxx to cn 116xxx for AF there 19k nobody knows how many peopleare in there right!
But assuming that AF 97cn went through for dv11 why can't AF100xxx can't make it in AF this year ?
Because we all think that there was visa left over for the last let's say 5 dv lotteries.
 
Sloner said:
Vladek, for you http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/2001-07bulletin.html
DV2001
Jul SOUTH AMERICA, CENTRAL AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN: SA 1,740
Aug SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN: SA 2,500
Winners 3671
DV 2005 http://travel.state.gov/content/vis...letin/2005/visa-bulletin-for-august-2005.html
Aug 2300
Sep 2755
Visa - 2,462
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam...013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

In 2014 max CN 2600.
It is 100% proof that the quota was increased.
Click to expand...

Sloner ok the quota of the selectees are definitly increased in SA as well as the other regions 35k extra than last year in total, now AS and OC is about double, if you compare the selectees to the older year like you did up to 2005 it will not match at all!
Because Asia just in 2011 was having over 40xxx cases... Now since bangladesh is out they selected only about 12k from asia!
May you are right with SA 26xxxCn seems bit to high to me !
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok simon
If higer cn in 2013 for AF was 97xxx(I presume he had his interview because af was current) according to rafiko, and in 2011 dv I spotted AF91xxx which went current and he reported having succesfull interview.
Now from cn 97xxx to cn 116xxx for AF there 19k nobody knows how many peopleare in there right!
But assuming that AF 97cn went through for dv11 why can't AF100xxx can't make it in AF this year ?
Because we all think that there was visa left over for the last let's say 5 dv lotteries.
Click to expand...

Yep that isn't a crazy assumption - let's try and make some firm points.

The gap between 97k and 116k is probably the extra 10k selectees. That fits based on the same ration of 62 selectees needing 116k case numbers. The holes rate would be about right.

Now then AF100k might have a chance BUT there are some things against Mr/Mrs AF100k

Firstly the quota. I do think the lower increase in selectees of AF region as compared the others does mean a reduction in the quota of visas for AF. I do not think it will be as dramatic a decrease as Sloner is suggesting but there will be some downward pressure - perhaps 1k visas less.

At the same time I do believe the 51k visas issued in DV2013 will be surpassed quite signifiantly. I think we could see 54k visas issued - which would benefit AF around 1k visas.

So I think the additional visas and the reduced quota will (very roughly) cancel each other out so AF might get around 23k visas - about the same as last year. In that case the cutoff would fall around case number 95 to 100k.

However, we are talking about theoretical maximums assuming case processing speed is not a problem. I do think that progress is worryingly slow this year. It is so slow that they might not even hit the global limit, simply because they haven't processed fast enough. It has taken them 6 months to get to CN 25k for Africa. What you and are are discussing is them doing almost 75k in the next 6 months. That is three times faster - 15k jump per month, every month from now on. That sounds like a different experience to the one we have seen so far.

So - I really want to see that - but I am going to be very concerned if we don't see a very healthy jump in case numbers for AF in the next VB.

It's all just guesswork....
 
britsimon said:
Yep that isn't a crazy assumption - let's try and make some firm points.

The gap between 97k and 116k is probably the extra 10k selectees. That fits based on the same ration of 62 selectees needing 116k case numbers. The holes rate would be about right.

Now then AF100k might have a chance BUT there are some things against Mr/Mrs AF100k

Firstly the quota. I do think the lower increase in selectees of AF region as compared the others does mean a reduction in the quota of visas for AF. I do not think it will be as dramatic a decrease as Sloner is suggesting but there will be some downward pressure - perhaps 1k visas less.

At the same time I do believe the 51k visas issued in DV2013 will be surpassed quite signifiantly. I think we could see 54k visas issued - which would benefit AF around 1k visas.

So I think the additional visas and the reduced quota will (very roughly) cancel each other out so AF might get around 23k visas - about the same as last year. In that case the cutoff would fall around case number 95 to 100k.

However, we are talking about theoretical maximums assuming case processing speed is not a problem. I do think that progress is worryingly slow this year. It is so slow that they might not even hit the global limit, simply because they haven't processed fast enough. It has taken them 6 months to get to CN 25k for Africa. What you and are are discussing is them doing almost 75k in the next 6 months. That is three times faster - 15k jump per month, every month from now on. That sounds like a different experience to the one we have seen so far.

So - I really want to see that - but I am going to be very concerned if we don't see a very healthy jump in case numbers for AF in the next VB.

It's all just guesswork....
Click to expand...

Yes its all about guess work ....
Now what about if I say that
1. according to the ceac data AF people hardly responded to
Their interviews (af region from oct to dec) ...
2.And visa issuing are about 1000k per month for AF wich is very low
Rate to what we expecting...
3.Cutoffs are always slow in the first half fiscal year for AF! And will start
Jumping HEAVY from the second half...
4.What about if wholes are more present at the second half of the year and hole are
Not as much inthe first half which can explain the slow pace of the cutoff?
5.Always consider high failure rate in AF for all the reasons we know...
 
vladek15425 said:
Yes its all about guess work ....
Now what about if I say that
1. according to the ceac data AF people hardly responded to
Their interviews (af region from oct to dec) ...
2.And visa issuing are about 1000k per month for AF wich is very low
Rate to what we expecting...
3.Cutoffs are always slow in the first half fiscal year for AF! And will start
Jumping HEAVY from the second half...
4.What about if wholes are more present at the second half of the year and hole are
Not as much inthe first half which can explain the slow pace of the cutoff?
5.Always consider high failure rate in AF for all the reasons we know...
Click to expand...

Yep - all sensible points. Who knows - maybe Mr 100k has a chance....
 
So I think the additional visas and the reduced quota will (very roughly) cancel each other out so AF might get around 23k visas - about the same as last year. In that case the cutoff would fall around case number 95 to 100k.
Click to expand...
It does not get much visas. CN should be 140-160000. Increased the number of holes in all regions.
 
vladek15425 said:
well yes raevsky just according to 2014 data i can see that the responding rate is 48 % in OC we checked it already when the caec
became operational, so the same rate (fidji effect+ wholes+abandoning...)will lead to 2000 end of the year (excluding the returns from the readys and aps) !
now if we add the nacara effect will probably hit the 2200 - 2300 IMO
and if there is a quota increase in OC which seem to happen ! because of the selectees quota has doubled in OC !
im just analyzing oc because its the easiest case to study and im getting closer and closer to simon prediction when he says that oc "might be" the only region that will be current!
you gave more precision about EU but you are very evasive about OC ?!
Click to expand...

Apologies if this has already been mentioned elsewhere, but as yet, do we have confirmation, or at least an informed guess, as to whether or not the overall increased number of selectees in Oceania and worldwide in 2014 is due to KCC's calculations being based on the flawed 2012 lottery? If so, why would they do that?
 
TonyJP said:
Apologies if this has already been mentioned elsewhere, but as yet, do we have confirmation, or at least an informed guess, as to whether or not the overall increased number of selectees in Oceania and worldwide in 2014 is due to KCC's calculations being based on the flawed 2012 lottery? If so, why would they do that?
Click to expand...
Yes tony we debated on this matter and we concluded that it has nothing to do with sloner axiom!
So kcc just wants to secure the visas for 2014 and make sure none will be wasted!
With an extra 35k extra selectees taken compare to last year.
But sloner will tell you exactly the opposite still lol
 
TonyJP said:
Apologies if this has already been mentioned elsewhere, but as yet, do we have confirmation, or at least an informed guess, as to whether or not the overall increased number of selectees in Oceania and worldwide in 2014 is due to KCC's calculations being based on the flawed 2012 lottery? If so, why would they do that?
Click to expand...

vladek15425 said:
Yes tony we debated on this matter and we concluded that it has nothing to do with sloner axiom!
So kcc just wants to secure the visas for 2014 and make sure none will be wasted!
With an extra 35k extra selectees taken compare to last year.
But sloner will tell you exactly the opposite still lol
Click to expand...

Actually Vladek I don't think it is unrelated.

I personally believe that the decision to select 140k was based on the 2012 results. I believe that strongly. My reasoning is based on two things. Firstly there are two huge anomalies in recent years, 2012 itself and then the 140k selection that came from nowhere. I'm convinced those two things are connected. Then you say what is the connection - well in 2012 100k selectees yielded 35k visas. If you have a formula that calculates how many selectees you need based on a previous years results (last completed year) then you would come up with a number of just over 140k.

Does that qualify as an informed guess? We won't get any statement or confirmation about that but DV2015 should return to normal selectee levels do the 140k will be a more obvious anomaly.
 
britsimon said:
Actually Vladek I don't think it is unrelated.

I personally believe that the decision to select 140k was based on the 2012 results. I believe that strongly. My reasoning is based on two things. Firstly there are two huge anomalies in recent years, 2012 itself and then the 140k selection that came from nowhere. I'm convinced those two things are connected. Then you say what is the connection - well in 2012 100k selectees yielded 35k visas. If you have a formula that calculates how many selectees you need based on a previous years results (last completed year) then you would come up with a number of just over 140k.

Does that qualify as an informed guess? We won't get any statement or confirmation about that but DV2015 should return to normal selectee levels do the 140k will be a more obvious anomaly.
Click to expand...

Simon you said befor it has nothing to do with 12 fiasco and my self I asked you the same question ?
Did you change your mind perhaps ? :confused:
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon you said befor it has nothing to do with 12 fiasco and my self I asked you the same question ?
Did you change your mind perhaps ? :confused:
Click to expand...

Can you remember where I said that Vladek? I don't think I've flip flopped on this - although I only realized the relationship after doing the 2011/2012/2013 vs2014 calculations which was the start of the "for those that like to argue statistics" thread. Now - I am NOT saying Sloners 2014 predictions are right - but I am saying that the 140k is based on the same mistake that Sloner bases his theory on.
 
Yes tony we debated on this matter and we concluded that it has nothing to do with sloner axiom!
So kcc just wants to secure the visas for 2014 and make sure none will be wasted!
Click to expand...
I came to the conclusion. You do not.

Simon agreed with me. Then he began to talk some nonsense and speculation.
 
Thanks for your thoughts, guys. To me, it seems strange that they'd base the 2014 selectee numbers on the 2012 lottery, given that they must have known that year's lottery was flawed. I guess, though, that because when the 2014 selectees were drawn, 2013 was still in progress so 2012 was the most recent completed lottery they had to base their projections on. Regardless, you'd think they'd still take into account the fact that there were problems with the 2012 lottery and keep that in mind when calculating how many selectees they'd need for 2014. Why unnecessarily disappoint thousands of superfluous selectees? Also, as in previous years, they could've always done a second-chance October draw if they needed to. I find this year's numbers confusing, and their slow progress frustrating, and it's hard to plan your life when KCC keeps its cards so close to its chest.
 
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