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sloner axiom :)

vladek15425 said:
ok guys
there my predictions for the next cutoff, i will not predict till the end of the fiscal year its to risky by now things can happen
i dont wanna sit and readjust:
AF ; 36000
AS ; 6000
EU ; 28500
OC ; 1000
SA ; 1200
SLONER WHAT DO YOU THINK MY FREIND?
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Those seem like good targets to shoot for - I hope you are right!
 
vladek15425 said:
ok guys
there my predictions for the next cutoff, i will not predict till the end of the fiscal year its to risky by now things can happen
i dont wanna sit and readjust:
Af ; 36000
as ; 6000
eu ; 28500
oc ; 1000
sa ; 1200
sloner what do you think my freind?
Click to expand...

af: 32,650
as: 5,625
eu: 26,700
oc: 950
sa: 1160
na: 8
 
ok guys
there my predictions for the next cutoff, i will not predict till the end of the fiscal year its to risky by now things can happen
i dont wanna sit and readjust:
AF ; 36000
AS ; 6000
EU ; 28500
OC ; 1000
SA ; 1200
SLONER WHAT DO YOU THINK MY FREIND?
Click to expand...
It is a real forecast. Regions should to move fast. :)
 
vladek15425 said:
Yours look very stingy but realistic hope mine will happen though :)
Click to expand...

I am not stingy,but this depend to the visas # available for April.
Reference to the last year 2013 there will 15,950 visa available in April for all regions:
AF 47%=32.650
AS 9%=5.625
EU 41%=26.700
OC 1.5%=950
SA 1.5%=1160
NA 0%=8
 
If throughout the year (DV-14) 2220 interviews are going to be scheduled in Warsaw, what is 69% of DV-13 amount, then it is logical to think that during the first 4 months of the year (Oct-Dec) also about 69% of DV-13 amount (Oct - Dec) are going to be scheduled in Warsaw. That is exactly what we currently see. Do you agree, Sloner? Does it look funny to you? To me it seems logical, not funny.
I guess, you have a personal preference against it?
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:D I doubt that you have finished school. In DV13 is scheduled for the year 1058 interview. Increase winnings on 3425-3233= 192 not allow an increase in the interview 2220-1058=1162 :) I think you do not understand. Because the calculations do not agree with your theories.
 
Ameer said:
I am not stingy,but this depend to the visas # available for April.
Reference to the last year 2013 there will 15,950 visa available in April for all regions:
AF 47%=32.650
AS 9%=5.625
EU 41%=26.700
OC 1.5%=950
SA 1.5%=1160
NA 0%=8
Click to expand...

Makes sense I agree but I think for dv 14 now for the 6th month cutoffs will start speeding at this stage
So I think mine will be more to happen :)
 
Sloner said:
:D I doubt that you have finished school.
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:D:D:D

You crack me up Sloner :) If anyone else would have said that, it would sound just rude. Like I said before you are a funny man :)


Here's what I think:

AF ; 34000
AS ; 5800
EU ; 25500 30000 33000 37000 40000 44000
OC ; 980
SA ; 1150
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You crack me up Sloner If anyone else would have said that, it would sound just rude. Like I said before you are a funny man
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How can the 192 member families in 1162 to get an interview. I think here smells corruption.:rolleyes:
 
franko said:
:D:D:D

You crack me up Sloner :) If anyone else would have said that, it would sound just rude. Like I said before you are a funny man :)


Here's what I think:

AF ; 34000
AS ; 5800
EU ; 25500 30000 33000 37000 40000 44000
OC ; 980
SA ; 1150
Click to expand...

So frank you choose to be in between me and ameer :) prediction.
Can't wait for the new VB. Its gonna be a hectic lol
 
raevsky said:
My estimation of Sloner effect was exact.
1840-2270
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If this is your final estimation for OC? Hope I'm not misunderstanding .
than the gab is to large between
1840 to 2270 (430) is huge ! Its like telling us AF 60000 to 120000 !
Give more smaller gab?
 
LOL, like Franko says, you are funny! That is like telling the Pope he isn't a good catholic...
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He's a good mathematician, I'm sure. But why does it make such childish mistakes in calculations, I do not understand.It is always good to consider. Sometimes I envy him.:)
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon your predictions for next cutoff ? And your opinion about mine and ameer and frank ?Thanks
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My head is screaming for me to not make predictions because this year things are very unpredictable - but I know you won't let me get away with that so here goes.

I think your set of numbers is more hope based than fact based. I think there would be dancing in the streets if those numbers came true. but on balance they are too high for me.

Ameer and Franko both have more realistic numbers, I think. I'm really not sure we can predict out the number ranges to the end of the year, but I am pleased to see Franko being so bold as to go to EU44k for September. I think Franko must have been cheered up by Raevsky recently opening the door to a slightly higher number.

So my numbers would be something like this

AF ; 34000 (+/- 1000)
AS ; 5600 (+/- 300)
EU ; 26500 (+/- 1000)
OC ; 1000 (+/- 50)
SA ; 1150 (+/- 75)
 
britsimon said:
My head is screaming for me to not make predictions because this year things are very unpredictable - but I know you won't let me get away with that so here goes.

I think your set of numbers is more hope based than fact based. I think there would be dancing in the streets if those numbers came true. but on balance they are too high for me.

Ameer and Franko both have more realistic numbers, I think. I'm really not sure we can predict out the number ranges to the end of the year, but I am pleased to see Franko being so bold as to go to EU44k for September. I think Franko must have been cheered up by Raevsky recently opening the door to a slightly higher number.

So my numbers would be something like this

AF ; 34000 (+/- 1000)
AS ; 5600 (+/- 300)
EU ; 26500 (+/- 1000)
OC ; 1000 (+/- 50)
SA ; 1150 (+/- 75)
Click to expand...




I would like to stress out that what I have put there is a prediction. Nothing to do with calculations :) I have been here long enough to see that with every new detail that we find, we still don't have enough data to correctly calculate cut-offs :) Probably that's what makes it fun for people like Raevsky.

So my approach is simple. DV2014 is very similar to DV2013. It is safe to assume that 31-33k will be achieved easily. Now if you add higher number of selectees (I assume that KFC :) had a good reason to add people, other than using 2012 data) and recent NACARA findings we can add another 5k so we are at about 38-39k. The rest is just wishful thinking :)
 
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