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sloner axiom :)

Sloner said:
Аривидерчи, адьес или просто пока! Надоели вы мне все... С вами только смеяться можно. никаких серьезных тем пообсуждать нельзя)))
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Sloner sloner are you ok? Is it your software going crazy !? :)
 
No you not boring us I promise :)
I like my friend, tomorrow I will post my prediction
For next cutoff and than we must talk about it together :)
 
raevsky said:
Come on. It it easier to say your have not read my answer to your question. October through January is 170 in DV-14 vs 250 in DV-13, that is 68%.
The number of winners in DV-13 from Poland + Belarus is 3233, in DV-14 3425. 3425*35/54 = 2220, what is 69% of 3233. So, we have exactly the same rate. Waky waky, misterious man
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Raevsky, why wouldn't that be a 109/140 ratio instead of a 35/54 ratio?
 
House 409 the rate that we spoke about is the one in warsawus ambassy and they interview belarus (1873) as well in there .
 
House409 said:
Raevsky, why wouldn't that be a 109/140 ratio instead of a 35/54 ratio?
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Because we are talking about Europe (Warsaw consulate handles two countries, and they both are in Europe). Europe has numbers upto 54K, and my prospects for Europe were about 35K (withoout possible 5% adjustment), so I would assume about 2220 interviews are going to be scheduled in Warsaw in DV-14.
 
Sloner said:
смеется тот. кто смеется последним:)

Вы подсчитали, сколько номеров дойдут до 35000. Дальше что?
Кстати тут есть кнопка, игнор? я хочу вас туда занести. Все нашел, как хорошо что вас нет, только ник один:)
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If throughout the year (DV-14) 2220 interviews are going to be scheduled in Warsaw, what is 69% of DV-13 amount, then it is logical to think that during the first 4 months of the year (Oct-Dec) also about 69% of DV-13 amount (Oct - Dec) are going to be scheduled in Warsaw. That is exactly what we currently see. Do you agree, Sloner? Does it look funny to you? To me it seems logical, not funny.
I guess, you have a personal preference against it?
 
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raevsky said:
Because we are talking about Europe (Warsaw consulate handles two countries, and they both are in Europe). Europe has numbers upto 54K, and my prospects for Europe were about 35K (withoout possible 5% adjustment), so I would assume about 2220 interviews are going to be scheduled in Warsaw in DV-14.
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OK, for EU there are 46k winners for dv-14, last year dv-13 there were around 34k if I remember well. Wouldn't that be this ratio instead?

If we follow your 35k prediction, yes I agree this would be 35/54.

But all this assumes holes between subsequent winning CN are evenly spread. I'm not sure this is the case if DOS has limited the notification to around 17k for high entry countries, don't you think?
 
House409 said:
OK, for EU there are 46k winners for dv-14, last year dv-13 there were around 34k if I remember well. Wouldn't that be this ratio instead?

If we follow your 35k prediction, yes I agree this would be 35/54.

But all this assumes holes between subsequent winning CN are evenly spread. I'm not sure this is the case if DOS has limited the notification to around 17k for high entry countries, don't you think?
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35K amount already included that type of calculations. But the idea is that because of special countries (U-countries in EU) you cannot just simply use 34/46. Instead, you should subtract the number of visas for U-countries from both figures, because the amount of winners from U-countires did not change frrom DV-13 to DV-14.
 
raevsky said:
35K amount already included that type of calculations. But the idea is that because of special countries (U-countries in EU) you cannot just simply use 34/46. Instead, you should subtract the number of visas for U-countries from both figures, because the amount of winners from U-countires did not change frrom DV-13 to DV-14.
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OK, understood.

So, for EU we had last year only Uzbekistan which almost filled the 7% country quota. I can remember you also mentioned a while ago other countries. I guess these are the U countries you are talking about.

This year, there are much more selectees, and I see at least 3 countries which have a good chance to fill their quotas: Uzbekistan, Ukraine, and possibly Russia. They had plenty of selectee. Would we need to substract at least 3*3500 = 10500 visas from the visa count to other countries? Is it where your 35k comes from?
 
raevsky can you give us your estimation for oc by now ?
there is no special cutoff in there so im sure you have already readjusted on oc?
 
House409 said:
OK, understood.

So, for EU we had last year only Uzbekistan which almost filled the 7% country quota. I can remember you also mentioned a while ago other countries. I guess these are the U countries you are talking about.

This year, there are much more selectees, and I see at least 3 countries which have a good chance to fill their quotas: Uzbekistan, Ukraine, and possibly Russia. They had plenty of selectee. Would we need to substract at least 3*3500 = 10500 visas from the visa count to other countries? Is it where your 35k comes from?
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U countries include both Ukraine and Uzbekistan - the number of winners almost did not change since DV-13. Rissua is unlikely to hit 3500 limit - it had too little amount of visas in DV-13. That is why you do it with 2 countries only.
 
Raevsky, can you run your script to generate the CEAC data every 15th days, so we are informed on the # of visa issued so far. Only if you are free to do so.:)
 
ok guys
there my predictions for the next cutoff, i will not predict till the end of the fiscal year its to risky by now things can happen
i dont wanna sit and readjust:
AF ; 36000
AS ; 6000
EU ; 28500
OC ; 1000
SA ; 1200
SLONER WHAT DO YOU THINK MY FREIND?
 
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