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sloner axiom :)

Sloner said:
How not? Is that EU 46000 win, CN 60000. Asia 23000 win, CN 27000? KFC decided to joke.:)
DV13 EU 35000 win, CN 30600. Asia 17000 win, CN 11000. This is also a joke?
Do not be naive, thinking that you know more.

Ukraine=World is a formula axioms.
http://diplopundit.net/tag/diversity-visa/

Was launched site update http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english.html
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I would not say i'm naive, as I don't really believe in miracles. I just wish you are right they have discovered more frauds (with or without a new computer program, who knows) and this has inflated the CN numbers. And more NACARA visas are available for DV, which all in all will makes everyone current at the end of the Summer. If only it turns true, you will be the most liked person in this forum.

Apparently KFC made it to Siberia :rolleyes: You seem to really like the fast food chain! Do they fry chickens in vodka there?
 
Hi everyone,

beside the dinner you re planning to go, I like Sloner predictions and you know why (because of my geant CN).

I think what sloner said is about the new performant software created more holes and that's can be verfiable throught the analysis of the CEAC detail and compare holes between DV-2014 and DV-2013 (of course there are other factor witch we have no idea about it like response rate, or unsubmitted document to KCC yet).
But 140k selectees sounds too much selection and it does explain the High CN across the world unless we had an abnormal derrivative rate (witch I think Sloner mention that before).
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi everyone,

beside the dinner you re planning to go, I like Sloner predictions and you know why (because of my geant CN).

I think what sloner said is about the new performant software created more holes and that's can be verfiable throught the analysis of the CEAC detail and compare holes between DV-2014 and DV-2013 (of course there are other factor witch we have no idea about it like response rate, or unsubmitted document to KCC yet).
But 140k selectees sounds too much selection and it does explain the High CN across the world unless we had an abnormal derrivative rate (witch I think Sloner mention that before).
Click to expand...

When you look at the number of selectees 10 years ago, they were in the 90k. They gradually increase year after year, and still most regions were current at the end. If you compare dv13 (109k selectees after second selection) to dv14 (140k selectees), the selectee count increased by 28%. That's still quite huge. Even if there are more holes in the CN sequence, they have selected lots of people this year. One believes this was due to the fiasco of dv12, which was the most recent dv stats they had on hand when DOS made its selection for dv14 (dv13 was not over yet then).

I don't think birth rates over several millions of applicants would drastically change from one year to the next. But derivative count would likely change if a specific country with a high birth rate made much more applications than others. In that case, yes, there would be more derivatives per application, but i would rather expect lower CN numbers then.
 
franko said:
stopped at motorway services for a coffee and somebody had this song on in a car exactly when i read the quote above : D


"ooohhh, my body's sayin' let's go
ooohhh, but my heart is sayin' no

i'm a genie in a bottle
you gotta rub me the right way"

sorry simon but for a second i thought you sound like christina aguilera . Maybe it's because vladdy and you are planing to cross dress for sloner in siberia :d

good predictions by the way sloner. Very positive :)
Click to expand...

lolol
 
But 140k selectees sounds too much selection and it does explain the High CN across the world unless we had an abnormal derrivative rate (witch I think Sloner mention that before).
Click to expand...
This was done intentionally, because 109000 is not enough to fill the quota.
 
Sloner said:
My prediction is for all regions:
Oceania +-100
April 975
May 1115
June 1800
July 2100
August 2500
September current

SA +-100
April 1100
May 1225
June 1600
July 1800
August 2200
September current

Europa +-2000
April 27000
May 32000
June 37000
July 41000
August 47000
September current

Africa+-3000-5000
April 34000
May 44000
June 68000
July 75000
August 85000
September 105000 (сurrent?)

Asia +-500-1000
April 5300
May 6600
June 9000
July 11000
August 16000
September 18000 (current?)

Further adjustment is possible :)
Click to expand...

By saying "further" you mean those numbers are adjusted already, from you earlier predictions, right? As far as I remember, your earlier prediction for April was 32000 for EU. Now it is down to 27000. Would you mind using this simple example answering just 2 questions.
1. How was the original April number 32000 obtained?
2. Why was it adjusted to 27000? Solely because of cutoffs for March?
 
Sloner said:
My prediction is for all regions:
Oceania +-100
April 975
May 1115
June 1800
July 2100
August 2500
September current

SA +-100
April 1100
May 1225
June 1600
July 1800
August 2200
September current

Europa +-2000
April 27000
May 32000
June 37000
July 41000
August 47000
September current

Africa+-3000-5000
April 34000
May 44000
June 68000
July 75000
August 85000
September 105000 (сurrent?)

Asia +-500-1000
April 5300
May 6600
June 9000
July 11000
August 16000
September 18000 (current?)

Further adjustment is possible :)
Click to expand...

If this happens that you will see this :)
http://outimpact.com/movies/DixieQueen/Dixie Queen Tara & Scarlett2.jpg
 
Sloner said:
dv2012.

dv2013 (04)22850-(05)27500. Dv2012 (02)22000-(03)26500. Dv2014 (03)20050-(04)27000


:d:d:d
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Here are your predictions:


Oct 8000
Nov 9800
Dec 13000
Jan 15300
Feb 18800
Mar 22700
Apr 32000
May 38500
Jun 43400
July 46200
Click to expand...
So, the only info that has changed since then was 2500 or less shift for some months, right? So, that 2500 adjustment for several months leads to conclusion for 5000 adjustment for April?
 
Sloner said:
Useful links http://fpc.state.gov/148253.htm September 27, 2010
http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/pdf/Edson04052011.pdf May 4, 2011

Russian forum analysis
I counted the number of winners until May 8 in 2012,2013,2014 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...mhiRzJpTl9jLVlIaVE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=2 and before July 23, 2012. http://www.govorimpro.us/
DV12 (1) - 117 СN 0-18000
DV12 (2) - 49 СN 0-32000
DV13 - 60 СN 0-28000
DV14 - 135 CN 0-54000.
Strange ....:confused:
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So you say there are more than twice as much winners in Dv14 vs. dv13 with CNs that nearly double... Ok, your conclusion is that they have selected twice as much winners?, that more Russians have played this year?, that Uncle Sam found a lot of frauds and increased the CN numbers?, or all of the above?

Imo, they notified more people (well, that's what they said anyway) and they are also more holes in the CN sequence.

When comparing AF with EU, they usually have CN going almost twice as high as Europe. But they only get around 50% more visas, and selectee count follows the same split between the 2 regions. How would you explain this? More holes in AF than in EU?
 
So, the only info that has changed since then was 2500 or less shift for some months, right? So, that 2500 adjustment for several months leads to conclusion for 5000 adjustment for April?
Click to expand...
I made ​​this forecast in September. Already much time has passed. The new forecast I give extra month in August to 47,000.
So you say there are more than twice as much winners in Dv14 vs. dv13 with CNs that nearly double... Ok, your conclusion is that they have selected twice as much winners?, that more Russians have played this year?, that Uncle Sam found a lot of frauds and increased the CN numbers?, or all of the above?

Imo, they notified more people (well, that's what they said anyway) and they are also more holes in the CN sequence.
Click to expand...
bold type. DV12 (1)=DV14 This suggests that they were planning to draw DV12 (1) to use 45-46 thousand won in Europa.
When comparing AF with EU, they usually have CN going almost twice as high as Europe. But they only get around 50% more visas, and selectee count follows the same split between the 2 regions. How would you explain this? More holes in AF than in EU?
Click to expand...
you want proof? DV13 CN 97000/30600= 3,17 DV14 CN 116000/60000=1,93. This means that the quota has been reduced in Africa, Europe at increased. Holes were more in Africa, Asia and Europe.
 
Sloner said:
My prediction is for all regions:
Oceania +-100
April 975
May 1115
June 1800
July 2100
August 2500
September current

SA +-100
April 1100
May 1225
June 1600
July 1800
August 2200
September current

Europa +-2000
April 27000
May 32000
June 37000
July 41000
August 47000
September current

Africa+-3000-5000
April 34000
May 44000
June 68000
July 75000
August 85000
September 105000 (сurrent?)

Asia +-500-1000
April 5300
May 6600
June 9000
July 11000
August 16000
September 18000 (current?)

Further adjustment is possible :)
Click to expand...

What do you base the jump in April for Europe by 7,000 on? Would be very if that was so!
 
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