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September VB - DV14 Last Chapter

EURO2014 said:
Yes, and in some year interviews in Spain were cancelled on September 29th, when global visa had run out... ;)
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raevsky said:
I have evidence that in DV-2000 world quota was exhausted by Sept. 22 and some people who were interviewed before, were not able to get visas because of that.
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Yes, I know that interviews for September have been cancelled - in more instances than above - as I already said. I was looking for something as precedent for Raevsky's assertion that interviews will be cancelled in August. He said he was "pretty sure" it had happened. I have never heard of August cancellations so am looking for precedent.
 
vladek said:
Raevsky what about SA? You predicted 1600 max for that region, they actually 1750 for august VB!
We know already that in the last data they hit the 2013 quota...
Do you think they will hit the wall in early august as well?
Because for me that also an other proof of quota increase!
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SA is different
I have to recalculate SA, but what I see here right now is that changes in SA were possible. Guatemala was added, and quota was increased. For the sake of AS and NA regions (high admission regions).
 
SusieQQQ said:
Yes, I know that interviews for September have been cancelled - in more instances than above - as I already said. I was looking for something as precedent for Raevsky's assertion that interviews will be cancelled in August. He said he was "pretty sure" it had happened. I have never heard of August cancellations so am looking for precedent.
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I do not have direct evidence, but some regions happened to become unavailable BEFORE August. It would normally be logical for some interviews to be cancelled at the same moment when visas become unavailble.
 
raevsky said:
I do not have direct evidence, but some regions happened to become unavailable BEFORE August. It would normally be logical for some interviews to be cancelled at the same moment when visas become unavailble.
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Well, can you show us the proof of regions being unavailable before August?
 
raevsky said:
SA is different
I have to recalculate SA, but what I see here right now is that changes in SA were possible. Guatemala was added, and quota was increased. For the sake of AS and NA regions (high admission regions).
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Ok but poland was back in 2013 and EU quota only jumped with 300 compare to 2011...
While poland took 760 visas.
Raevsky I'm pretty sure Nacara will be re injected to DV ! And DV2014 will end up at around 53500.
 
nerandima said:
No one was able to predict correctly till today....... So it's better to wait 3 weeks and see what KCC will do....... They have another plan which cannot be predicted by any of us........
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yes.. like no one can predict spain and england went home earlier in world cup 2014, so is DV2014, no one can predict it..
 
Slikk said:
Ah ok this is from rafik CEAC I thought you had more recent data, thats why I asked.. So it almost 3x higher refusal than in 2013 ceac form 5.27(1337) and without last 3 months and without AP for AF.So its going to be interesting situation after new Rafik update..What others think?Maybe AF will handle all remaining CNs with something like 21-22k visas?
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SusieQQQ said:
Well, can you show us the proof of regions being unavailable before August?
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look into dv-1 data. Two regions became unavailable - in April and June correspondingly, ans stayed unavailable until August
 
raevsky said:
look into dv-1 data. Two regions became unavailable - in April and June correspondingly, ans stayed unavailable until August
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I don't understand (1) where I find "DV-1" data and (2) how something can have reached its quota if it's only unavailable for a few months.... Something doesn't add up here.
 
vladek said:
Ok but poland was back in 2013 and EU quota only jumped with 300 compare to 2011...
While poland took 760 visas.
Raevsky I'm pretty sure Nacara will be re injected to DV ! And DV2014 will end up at around 53500.
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We do not know exact qouta, we are not even sure about how many visas nacara returned back. But in dv-14 I expect almost 55000 visas issued, and I base my calculations on that. That is the first year when DOS has enough candidates to get more than 55000 visas - except in dv-95 and in dv -97
 
raevsky said:
Regarding EU numbers, whatever cutoff they announce in July for September (40150 again or Unavailable or whatever), it is pretty much obvious visas for EU will exhaust in July or August, maybe except 2-3 visas, and there will be no additional interviews since then
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What???? What do you mean with that? I have interview end of August, does this mean maybe I can't have an visa?????
 
SusieQQQ said:
I don't understand (1) where I find "DV-1" data and (2) how something can have reached its quota if it's only unavailable for a few months.... Something doesn't add up here.
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Here it is.
We have quotas and visas issued. Quotas for Poland and NA were filled sometime in March. I suspect some interviews in March were cancelled. Quotas were filled and no more visas were issued. For SA it was different. Quota was filled May, some interviews were probably cancelled in May, no interviews were done in June July and August. But in September things changed. EU was still Current, because there were not enough available applicants. That was the only region current. Too many winners were from Poland, and Polish per country quota was exhausted. The rest of Europe did not have enough applicants. So, Europe got only 24289 visas, but the quota was 24549. The extra 260 quota units were transferred from Europe to other regions (except NA) in September. NA did not get any because it's share was less than 1 visa. Other regions got extra quota.
Totally, blue regions were underfilled, and red ones were overfilled. I have no idea why OC and NA were underfilled. The whole world got 55058 visas, that was more than quota. I suspect they issued 58 extra visas to family members of winners who submitted late, after other family members go visas. But the idea is clear. They made a mistake with Poland, so Europe did not have enough applicants from other countries, and the could not fill visas for EU. So the waited until September and transferred 260 extra visas to other region. AF quota exceeded with 114 visas, AS with 27, and SA with 196 ones.
 

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Guys, visas issued to date for each region is key. It doesn't happen last time doesn't mean it will not happen now. Remember DV14 is unique and whatever not happen before it might happen this year. So the best way is to monitor the CEAC data for visas issued. That is the only data we can have and I am pretty sure DOS will also depends on that data and AOS to decide Sept cut off, cancellation of interviews etc...

But I don't think they will want to cancel any interviews even in Sept and the only to do that is to target 50k visas only and let the NACARA cover the buffer that DOS put in for the 2 months of unknown (Aug & Sept). Based on the data movement we know DOS is very conservative in their planning because of slowness we noticed almost all regions. If it is conservative and with NACARA in, I don't see why they need to cancel any interviews even in Sept. Remember DV annual quota is 50k and not 55k, to them as long as it met 50k they are good.

Of course some might say KCC has not be doing a good job so far because of the increased of selectees etc... I was analyzing whatever data I can find for Asia and initially I don't really understand why Asia progress so slow and why no special cut off for Iran and Nepal but after I see the latest data it make sense not to put Iran and Nepal in early special cut off because it don't need to and yet it can fulfill the region quota with 12 months of allocation on visa slots.
 
levi2al said:
What???? What do you mean with that? I have interview end of August, does this mean maybe I can't have an visa?????
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Things like that happened historically. When visas exhaust, interviews are cancelled. Sometimes they still interview a couple of days until they cancel the rest of interviews. In that case people still get no visas, even after a successful interview.
 
raevsky said:
Things like that happened historically. When visas exhaust, interviews are cancelled. Sometimes they still interview a couple of days until they cancel the rest of interviews. In that case people still get no visas, even after a successful interview.
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I will tell you more. If someone waits for AP after an interview, and visas exhaust, and later AP comes up fine, you still do not get visas.
 
raevsky said:
Here it is.
We have quotas and visas issued. Quotas for Poland and NA were filled sometime in March. I suspect some interviews in March were cancelled. Quotas were filled and no more visas were issued. For SA it was different. Quota was filled May, some interviews were probably cancelled in May, no interviews were done in June July and August. But in September things changed. EU was still Current, because there were not enough available applicants. That was the only region current. Too many winners were from Poland, and Polish per country quota was exhausted. The rest of Europe did not have enough applicants. So, Europe got only 24289 visas, but the quota was 24549. The extra 260 quota units were transferred from Europe to other regions (except NA) in September. NA did not get any because it's share was less than 1 visa. Other regions got extra quota.
Totally, blue regions were underfilled, and red ones were overfilled. I have no idea why OC and NA were underfilled. The whole world got 55058 visas, that was more than quota. I suspect they issued 58 extra visas to family members of winners who submitted late, after other family members go visas. But the idea is clear. They made a mistake with Poland, so Europe did not have enough applicants from other countries, and the could not fill visas for EU. So the waited until September and transferred 260 extra visas to other region. AF quota exceeded with 114 visas, AS with 27, and SA with 196 ones.
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This is dv1 and dv2014 should be dv-20 if I get the version correct. So, you suggesting version 1 mistakes might happen in version 20? I do not want to rule out anything but this will be very unlikely.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Raevsky can't provide anything to back up that statement...Relax.
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Well when visa for Iran exhausted in DV-13, the ad on the consular website in Ankara said exactly that - no more visas even after AP or an interview, all interviews cancelled
 
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