However, we know for sure that the sum of quotas for all regions together is 55000 or less. One of the consequences is that we cannot even consider a possibility that all regions together increased their quotas above 55000. Increasing EU quota would definitely mean decreasing AF quota. However, all possible arguments towards one of them increased a the sake of the other one would be absolutely symmetrical.
September VB - DV14 Last Chapter
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Me kidding? We have 6/3/2014 CEAC results. Out of 2571 visas issued in May in the whole EU 579 were under April cutoff. That is still more than 22.5%
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Agreed. But you are going with the theory that says KCC have been cautious in all regions but careless in EU. Scheduling appointments to be canceled in September is one thing, but doing so for August whilst other regions aren't even close makes no sense. So I agree we have no evidence of an increase in EU but if they were going to do that, you would have seen EU as a front runner all year and then a high number in August. Since that is exactly what we have seen, it might mean more visas for EU than shown in your models. And yes, I agree that AF would pay that price.
We are here talking about EU, Iran is not a part of EUSo maybe this has something to do with the so-called " 50% of late submmiters" with all other Iranians in the mesh..
"Failure to submit documents 15 days before the appointment date will result in delay of the processing of your file and your interview may not take place on the original appointment date."
Slikk
Member
Most of them are as I said rescheduled(ready cases), but good portion will be dead permanent.So is it 50%, 22.5% late commers or whats going to be after next ceac..
Small digression..
According to your data can you pls calculate refusal rate for AF in 2014 and predict final refusal number?
Small digression..
According to your data can you pls calculate refusal rate for AF in 2014 and predict final refusal number?
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Yes, Britsimon, this is quite right, and the best possible way to see this. Raevsky's analysis is based on the premise that each region will receive its DV-2014 visa share, based on respective DV-2013 numbers, i.e. by predicting the future by projecting out the past. Unfortunately, very few statistical models are so simple, as they need to account for a changing environment. In this case, the underlying change is the strong possibility that Europe will take more Visa numbers in 2014, due to the fact that EU went already current for August in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 and therefore could not effectively compete for Visa during September, as it had run out of applicants. AF certainly benefitted from this, as evidenced by respective September jumps. Obviously, that is not the case at all this year, as there are much higher EU numbers lined up, hence they will continue to compete until global visa will run out some time in September.
A true indication of the limitation of a statistical model occurs, once it is not able to explain what happens in reality, in this case EU40,150 for August. In Raevsky's model, this is not possible and he therefore has to argue that confirmed interviews have to be retro-actively cancelled, beginning in August, which just may make some people unnecessarily nervous. Raevsky's good and detailed analysis would therefore benefit from different visa number scenarios by region, which possibly will allow for an explanation of what we will be truly seeing for DV-2014 in August and September of this year.
We also have simultaneous increase in both regions for the number of visas issued compared to DV-13. About 13000 instead of 10000 for 6/3, for either region. That is much more than 7% increase caused by releasing 4K of NACARA quota. That makes me think that quotas are filled earlier in both regions this year.
Slikk
Member
I know its not EU, but may bring high load to the consular department, that was the point..Thats why I said Ankara is tricky one.
vladek
Active Member
Reavsky :
My evidence of EU increase is that they are running with the same pace as AF !
AF, 12656 visas issued
EU, 13040 issued up to the 3th of june.
So why would they let EU go faster than other regions ? And why would they let EU hit the wall before august !? While they have a full months left (september)!?
There has to be a quota increase, from where I'm not sure ! May be nacara of from AF....
My evidence of EU increase is that they are running with the same pace as AF !
AF, 12656 visas issued
EU, 13040 issued up to the 3th of june.
So why would they let EU go faster than other regions ? And why would they let EU hit the wall before august !? While they have a full months left (september)!?
There has to be a quota increase, from where I'm not sure ! May be nacara of from AF....
Not easy because of unknown refusal rates for AP cases. There still are a lot of AP cases.
There s not such thing as high load. DV interviews are a small portion of all interviews at a consulate. They could reschedule other cases to process DV by September.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I have never heard of interviews being cancelled before September. Do you have any precedent for this that you can show a link to? Especially as you seem to be saying only EU will be cancelled, not other regions?
Slikk
Member
Not so easy story with lot or Iranians...
Pls exclude AF AP as an error and give us number till now. I am sure it will be interesting compare to your final Ceac 2013
Pls exclude AF AP as an error
and give us number till now. I am sure it will be interesting compare to your final Ceac 2013 They also ran with the same pace in DV-13. 10000 by 6/1 each. So that is historical. And the reason is much more late submitters in AF than in EU. More cultural procrastinators. I think hat I a cultural difference. Life is more slow in undeveloped countries.
Regarding the full month length, it is goo t remember in DV-1 some regions exhausted several months before the end of the year. But in September they were given unused EU quota...
In DV-1 some regions became unavailable long before September, in March and in May. I am pretty sure some interviews were cancelled as well, as soon as the quotas exhausted.
So far we have 4600 APs in Africa. That is a very significant number to be ignored.Not so easy story with lot or Iranians...
Pls exclude AF AP as an error
Slikk
Member
Hey raevsky when you mentioned that all other benefit from unused EU quota in september, whats full EU quota under heavy load in your head?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Have to agree with Raevsky here. 50k DV visas a year. 1m other NIV visas a year. It's not DV that is the load issue. Also as we have discussed before chances are that very few Iranians get interviews in September given the typical AP length - I have posted before the links where they say most Iranians go on AP. They will try to have finished scheduling Iranian interviews by August. So even for Ankara DV won't be a load issue in September - they will mainly be issuing visas off finalized AP cases in Sept.
Slikk
Member
Ignored just for now not permanent, I asked whats total AF refused cases number if you know Pls tell us.
Pls tell us.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I'd like some more evidence than you being "pretty sure"
The only evidence of cancelled interviews I've seen were in September, but those were country quotas. I haven't seen any evidence for what has happened with regional or global quotas being exhausted.