AF has several special countries. And for some of them we still do not know the max
September VB - DV14 Last Chapter
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Kayend
Active Member
What I mean is that if Nepal has 5k selectees returning forms to KCC and up to Aug it has 3.7k selectees scheduled for interviews, you mean KCC will not impose a special limit and still scheduled the remaining 1.3k selectees and only cancel the interviews when Nepal hit the country limit in mid of Sept?
I have to check the june ceac data. I did not follow Nepal closely.
vladek
Active Member
How sure are you?
What about a huge increase in EU quota ?!
Because for me that obvious! Otherwise they would of stopped the EU progress...
vladek
Active Member
Nigeria is surely maxing out they had a 7k jump never happend before ! So that a huge sign...
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Kayend
Active Member
Ok, based on the data i collected so far from CEAC, data from this forum and various selectees input, I pretty sure that Iran has about 4.3k selectees returning the forms and Nepal has about 5k selectees returning the forms to KCC. So, with this data, Asia will have around 13k selectees interviews scheduled to ensure Asia quota met and up to Aug, it is expected to have around 11k to 11.5k interviews scheduled, so Asia should only have 1.5k to 2k selectees schedule for Sept interviews. And your prediction is 14k to 17k which fall into the range of 13k selectees. Maybe you use a different way to calculate it but the end result is almost the same as mine.
rolybao
New Member
So there is no hope for a guy like me with case number a little above 100k. I cancelled all future plans because of DV....
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
So there is no hope for a guy like me with case number a little above 100k. I cancelled all future plans because of DV....
Rather than taking a guess on a forum from somebody wait for the visa bulletin in a few weeks. You have waited so long, before you start getting too depressed wait for the official numbers. You may or may not be current. No one here can really know.
Hey Friends!
Don't forget 7% max for each country.
For exemple there are almost 2428 visa available for Morocco but till now the number of visas given is under the half.
DKK
Active Member
It makes me worried, 3.7 k already scheduled.
, 96## , Nepal
DKK
Active Member
oh... Nice, I got someone like me, yeah yeah....... from ktm?
ASIA
1. Nepal
Out of first 6500 numbers (cutoff for May, and those were processed already)
Admin 161
Issued 2238
If we project the same rates up to 9500, we get:
Issued 3271
Admin 235
Totally 3506
If not all admin are processed, then with the same rates 10165 cutoff for Nepal will exhaust Nepalese quota.
So, Nepal will max out after 10200 or earlier. Cutoff for Nepal will not get higher than about 10200.
2. Iran
Out of first 6500 numbers
Admin 1781
Issued 1105
With the same rates after 12700
Issued 2159, and a lot of admins that will be processed by FBI in September. Iran will max out at the end of September,
and there is not need to lift cutoff beyond 12700
Anyway, Iranian max CN is likely to be around 10K-11K.
3. The rest of Asia.
After 6500 numbers:
Admin 252
Issued 1053
Projecting to 12700 would give
Admin 492
Issued 2057
1. Nepalese cutoff for September could become a little bit higher, about 10200 max. However, the max nepalese CN might be
not much higher.
2. Iran will probably not have per country cutoff because of large number of AP, but will max out when FBI processes them
anyway.
3. The rest of Asia will have up to 2500 visas already, with numbers up to 12700.
Last year quota 9500 with Nacara is 10200. 3500 nepalese + 3500 iranians is already 7000. 10200 - 7000 = 3200. Between
2050 and 2500 will be taken from numbers up to 12700. Then up to 700 - 1100 additional visas more might be needed to be
issued. That could lift cutoff up to 6500 more (from 12700), but I would expect it to be lifted only half of that amount.
Expect 14K-17K max. In case Nepal and Iran are given 3750 visas each, there is no need to lift AS cutoff at all. So, it
might not even be lifted above 13000. But 14K-17K is more likely.
EUROPE
Ukraine 1244 visas issued
Uzbekistan up to 16350
admin 156
issued 2477
Projecting to 20000 (Uzb max CN) we get 190 admin and 3030-3200 visas.
Last year EU quota = 16619. With Nacara released that would become 17890. Minus Ukraine and Uzbekistan that would give us
13550. For the rest of EU.
The rest of Europe
For EU up to 30700 we have:
Admin 1499
Issued 9319
Up to number 38700 (my projection of max) that would mean
Admin 1890
Issued 11747
Total 13637
With 40150 (cutoff) that would mean
Admin 1960
Issued 12188
Last year EU had less than 500 AP left in EU. So by any means EU will be exhausted before 40150. No need to increase EU
cutoff for September, even if noone of those who are below 30700 submits documents (but they will)
AFRICA
Ghana
Up to 29136
Admin 127
Issued 1346
That is it, I think no more CNs for Ghana
Nigeria
Up to 13500
Admin 230
Issued 1634
CNs go up to ~20K.
That would give with the same rate:
admin 340
Issued 2420
Ethiopia numbers up to 37900
admin 174
issued 1968
Ethiopia's CNs go up to ~43418
That would give
admin 199
issued 2255
Egypt with numbers up to 25900
admin 128
Issued 2828
Egypt's CNs go up to 28200
That would give
issued 3078
Rest of AF up to 37900
Admin 1440
Issued 4796
up to 63900 that would gibe
Admin 2428
Issued 8086
up to 80K that would give
admin 3040
issued 10123
up to 100K that would give
admin 3799
issued 12654
AF quota with possible nacara released could go up to 25087.
Ghana 1346 + 127 AP
Nigeria 2420 + 340 AP
Ethiopia 2255 + 199 AP
Egypt 3078 + 139 AP
Rest of AF 10123 + 3040 AP (up to 80K)
Total: 19222 + 3845 AP, definitely less than quota (if AF up to 80K)
Total 21753 + 4604 AP (if AF up to 100K). Potentially more than quota.
So, I would say AF will exhaust between 80K and 100K. Expect AF cutoff between 80K and 100K
At the same time all results (for all regions) are not 100% conclusive because people even with smaller numbers still
apply for visas. So, actual cutoffs will be even smaller.
1. Nepal
Out of first 6500 numbers (cutoff for May, and those were processed already)
Admin 161
Issued 2238
If we project the same rates up to 9500, we get:
Issued 3271
Admin 235
Totally 3506
If not all admin are processed, then with the same rates 10165 cutoff for Nepal will exhaust Nepalese quota.
So, Nepal will max out after 10200 or earlier. Cutoff for Nepal will not get higher than about 10200.
2. Iran
Out of first 6500 numbers
Admin 1781
Issued 1105
With the same rates after 12700
Issued 2159, and a lot of admins that will be processed by FBI in September. Iran will max out at the end of September,
and there is not need to lift cutoff beyond 12700
Anyway, Iranian max CN is likely to be around 10K-11K.
3. The rest of Asia.
After 6500 numbers:
Admin 252
Issued 1053
Projecting to 12700 would give
Admin 492
Issued 2057
1. Nepalese cutoff for September could become a little bit higher, about 10200 max. However, the max nepalese CN might be
not much higher.
2. Iran will probably not have per country cutoff because of large number of AP, but will max out when FBI processes them
anyway.
3. The rest of Asia will have up to 2500 visas already, with numbers up to 12700.
Last year quota 9500 with Nacara is 10200. 3500 nepalese + 3500 iranians is already 7000. 10200 - 7000 = 3200. Between
2050 and 2500 will be taken from numbers up to 12700. Then up to 700 - 1100 additional visas more might be needed to be
issued. That could lift cutoff up to 6500 more (from 12700), but I would expect it to be lifted only half of that amount.
Expect 14K-17K max. In case Nepal and Iran are given 3750 visas each, there is no need to lift AS cutoff at all. So, it
might not even be lifted above 13000. But 14K-17K is more likely.
EUROPE
Ukraine 1244 visas issued
Uzbekistan up to 16350
admin 156
issued 2477
Projecting to 20000 (Uzb max CN) we get 190 admin and 3030-3200 visas.
Last year EU quota = 16619. With Nacara released that would become 17890. Minus Ukraine and Uzbekistan that would give us
13550. For the rest of EU.
The rest of Europe
For EU up to 30700 we have:
Admin 1499
Issued 9319
Up to number 38700 (my projection of max) that would mean
Admin 1890
Issued 11747
Total 13637
With 40150 (cutoff) that would mean
Admin 1960
Issued 12188
Last year EU had less than 500 AP left in EU. So by any means EU will be exhausted before 40150. No need to increase EU
cutoff for September, even if noone of those who are below 30700 submits documents (but they will)
AFRICA
Ghana
Up to 29136
Admin 127
Issued 1346
That is it, I think no more CNs for Ghana
Nigeria
Up to 13500
Admin 230
Issued 1634
CNs go up to ~20K.
That would give with the same rate:
admin 340
Issued 2420
Ethiopia numbers up to 37900
admin 174
issued 1968
Ethiopia's CNs go up to ~43418
That would give
admin 199
issued 2255
Egypt with numbers up to 25900
admin 128
Issued 2828
Egypt's CNs go up to 28200
That would give
issued 3078
Rest of AF up to 37900
Admin 1440
Issued 4796
up to 63900 that would gibe
Admin 2428
Issued 8086
up to 80K that would give
admin 3040
issued 10123
up to 100K that would give
admin 3799
issued 12654
AF quota with possible nacara released could go up to 25087.
Ghana 1346 + 127 AP
Nigeria 2420 + 340 AP
Ethiopia 2255 + 199 AP
Egypt 3078 + 139 AP
Rest of AF 10123 + 3040 AP (up to 80K)
Total: 19222 + 3845 AP, definitely less than quota (if AF up to 80K)
Total 21753 + 4604 AP (if AF up to 100K). Potentially more than quota.
So, I would say AF will exhaust between 80K and 100K. Expect AF cutoff between 80K and 100K
At the same time all results (for all regions) are not 100% conclusive because people even with smaller numbers still
apply for visas. So, actual cutoffs will be even smaller.
What is your evidence towards huge increase in EU quota?
Nigeria did not max out in DV-13, and the number of winners from Nigeria is about the same in DV-14 as it was in DV-13. Why would it max out?
I recalculated this morning, as you see. Seems Nepal could max out even from 9500, but only if all APs are issued visas. Most likely Nepalese cut off will be slightly increased, at to 10K-10200. And at the same time APs are processed too. I would expect Nepal t max out in September, before September 15th. Iran would max out when APs are processed, the same as last year, around Sept. 20th.
DKK
Active Member
Most of these guys are expecting Nepal's final cut off be 10,200. So, our optimism may work.