September VB - DV14 Last Chapter
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Interesting. So if you look at the last CEAC download you could calculate how many visas could be granted based on the numbers already in the system (10 months selectees).
I agree that the next ful CEAC file will be interesting - but that will be available around July 1 or 2 - and then a few days later we will get the final VB numbers. Given that July 4th is a hard holiday to miss, I am sure that will affect when we get the numbers.
Slikk
Member
@Britsimon
Well its not so easy to calculate not for me, we still have too many unknowns. I said earlier Ready status is nasty variable thats why we need new CEAC.But for EU lower density at high stage is very positive sign,in last 15000(40-55k) we could have only 2k-3k visas issued...so 19.5-20k is something in my head for all EU CNs.Before I was not sure about term "reducing the density", but after the August numbers this looks like trend that continues.And I dont think this statement is valid for EU "However according to the State Department DV-2014 applicants have responded at a much higher rate than in previous years, resulting in greater visa number use by those with lower rank numbers and slower forward movement of the cut-off dates." because with higher density in lower numbers 40150 is really good actually for last cut off, in June EU was on 12500-13000k Issued.What do you think?Thats why I bet on EU current
Well its not so easy to calculate not for me, we still have too many unknowns. I said earlier Ready status is nasty variable thats why we need new CEAC.But for EU lower density at high stage is very positive sign,in last 15000(40-55k) we could have only 2k-3k visas issued...so 19.5-20k is something in my head for all EU CNs.Before I was not sure about term "reducing the density", but after the August numbers this looks like trend that continues.And I dont think this statement is valid for EU "However according to the State Department DV-2014 applicants have responded at a much higher rate than in previous years, resulting in greater visa number use by those with lower rank numbers and slower forward movement of the cut-off dates." because with higher density in lower numbers 40150 is really good actually for last cut off, in June EU was on 12500-13000k Issued.What do you think?Thats why I bet on EU current
Britsimon
Super Moderator
@Britsimon
Well its not so easy to calculate not for me, we still have too many unknowns. I said earlier Ready status is nasty variable thats why we need new CEAC.But for EU lower density at high stage is very positive sign,in last 15000(40-55k) we could have only 2k-3k visas issued...so 19.5-20k is something in my head for all EU CNs.Before I was not sure about term "reducing the density", but after the August numbers this looks like trend that continues.And I dont think this statement is valid for EU "However according to the State Department DV-2014 applicants have responded at a much higher rate than in previous years, resulting in greater visa number use by those with lower rank numbers and slower forward movement of the cut-off dates." because with higher density in lower numbers 40150 is really good actually for last cut off, in June EU was on 12500-13000k Issued.What do you think?Thats why I bet on EU current
Right, the problem is that you are taking the 40150 number (11 months) and comparing with the June CeAC number (8 months). You are ignoring the existing pace of issuances (2k per month) which would take the 13k to 19k even if they didn't increase above the 40150. Then there are aos cases which do not appear in the CEAC data but will add around 800- 1000 issuances. See what I mean? You are getting convinced about current even though your own (optimistic) visa target is already exceeded even with the numbers already announced.
You could also have figured this out from the selectees total in the CEAC file, but either way you cut it, current for EU looks unlikely.
Slikk
Member
Nope I am not ignoring anything, but I just cant agree with your theory.You can't count on linear trend in issuing 2k per month, not in June with small jump of 2k and july 3.3k, and low CN density in August.Most of stucked Ready cases for first six months are dead already, so in this 3 months(june,july,august) all you can get is 4k issued max.AP for EU isn't so high maybe ~500.But ok we'll see what happens at the end . Good luck to all high CNs.
. Good luck to all high CNs.
Sloner
Active Member
in Europe would not be 2,000 per month. Simon, you surprise me, the first time you came here? +5300=2000.simple math
Britsimon
Super Moderator
It may be simple math, but I have watched you making the same mistakes over and over again for the past year. But hey, let's not worry about that - so I assume you still think EU and all other regions are going current - correct?
Regarding EU numbers, whatever cutoff they announce in July for September (40150 again or Unavailable or whatever), it is pretty much obvious visas for EU will exhaust in July or August, maybe except 2-3 visas, and there will be no additional interviews since then
SudMD
Member
raevsky whats your thoughts about AF in september
Between 80k and 100kraevsky whats your thoughts about AF in september
SudMD
Member
huge gap right there raevsky.
We still do not know max numbers for Nigeria, for instance. That is some kind of uncertainty
Kayend
Active Member
What do you mean by Nepal exhausting earlier but no special cut off for Nepal in Sept. Are you suggesting that the density for Nepal is lesser from 9.5k onwards?
SudMD
Member
i know about egypt max CN *40k*
I really do not understand your question about density. But I think Nepal shoul not be exhausted even ar 10.5k. Earlier means around mid September