Retrogression: Doing the Math

Can anyone suggest?

Hi gurus,

After a major roller-coaster ride with RFE-s and denials, my 140 finally got approved last week. I have a PD of 22Feb02 and I am in EB3 RIR...can anyone suggest how long I may have to wait or is that an improbable question? I am thinking that if the wait is 2 years or more, then I will pack and leave for a more stable future back in India...any thoughts, help?

Thanks guys - Roni
 
Short answer: Nurses will have little or no effect. Only those nurses with PDs before their regular EB3 cut-off will eat into the regular EB3 quota. Others will eat into their 50k pool allocated by congress earlier this year.

krprasad said:
can you please crunch some number about schedule A workers affecting the visa number for India.

I am scared shit that for EB3-india and EB2-india there is no hopes for next two years(assuming that some of nurses have a master degree)
Click to expand...
 
thats good atleast EB3 wont be affected.
but what about per country limit, if lets say 30k of these nurses are from india??
 
Sfmars

May be you are right........ As I told in my posting not to mind my posting if it doesn't make sense for you. Anyways no one in the world can ever convince me that BEC is lazy. They are NOT. They are working harder day by day.....
I was one of the member in BEC tracker since 1and1/2 year. I know BEC has cleared cases between 97 and 98. I will not blame the politics or the government because Iam a capitalist by choice.

Anyways good luck....





sfmars said:
Reading your post one can understand that everything is right and fair and done in accordance with reality and general logic, but it is not. You may know that cut off dates from the visa bulletin work for the both ends: 1. You can not file I485 if you did not do it before 2. You will not get green card until your PD is current even if you could manage to filed I485 in time.
And of course you will not get majority of green card benefits in this case except for EAD for you and for your dependants.

What would you say if DoS in November bulletin sets cut of date for India EB2/EB3 category January 1980 ?

Why did you decide that BECs work like crazy? I would say they work like lazy, they did not clear even 5% of the cases for almost one year.

Reading different forums I saw only one guy from NY who's PD is 2000.
People with PD up to 2000 already have green cards.
My point is even if there are 5-10 cases with PD 98/99 it is not the reason for retrogression like we have got in October.

My vision is that in the nearest future only EB1 qualified people will be able to get employment based green cards in US. It is current general line in US that Employment based immigration is not useful for native americans and for the country itself. Employment based immigrants steal jobs from the US citizens (it is not my thoght). The same time all illegal immigrants from specific country are very useful. They do not take high payable jobs from citizens and giving them chance to apply for green cards can help to get additional voices in the future election compaigns. We may see reflection of that in the discussed bills.

Today only nurses (Scheduled workers) can feel themselve relieved. But reading their discussions on the Murthy forum http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=1024039761&f=5314002182&m=267109829
I understood they also think they are relived now now due to the political reasons and expect retrogression for them too.
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InfoStarved..

please give it a thought..

EB3 wont be affected.but what about per country limit, if lets say 30k of these nurses are from india in 2006, wont that eat out of indias quota??


infostarved said:
Short answer: Nurses will have little or no effect. Only those nurses with PDs before their regular EB3 cut-off will eat into the regular EB3 quota. Others will eat into their 50k pool allocated by congress earlier this year.
Click to expand...
 
Keep dreaming guys..I think I may be the lone voice here who's reflecting reality.
In these times, repulicans will not go against the american workers by passing bills which will increase foreign workers. They cannot make the people more angry after Katrina and Rita.
They also want votes. Imagine what the public will do if they see that the politicos are reducing their wages furter by getting more people from overseas! With all the gas price hikes etc the last thing people need here is more competition which reduces their wages further.

Sorry to say the glass is half empty but it is more than half empty!! There is nothing in it !!
 
picture is bleak..

dont know about dreaming and all...but things does not look good right now..

i am waiting for InfoStarved opinion on all this.

assuming that there no law gets passed increasing visa numbers or per country limit...(i am afraid to say...it can be other way....i.e. more visa for schedule A worker on regular basis....that will eat into india's per country limit, making it worse for IT people)

EB3 after 2003 is hopeless....
EB2 after 2004 (wild guess)
EB1 may a bit better off since atleast there is a hope that 2006 will become current in 2008, when we can file 485..

sorry guys, i just hope i am wrong, looks like we may have to plan our life accordingly...
 
Why you think only EB2 after 2004 are in trouble? The cut off date is in 1999. Unless the PD is leaping forward soon, everybody is in deep shit.
 
LCSilence said:
Why you think only EB2 after 2004 are in trouble? The cut off date is in 1999. Unless the PD is leaping forward soon, everybody is in deep shit.
Click to expand...

**********
EB3 after 2003 is hopeless....
EB2 after 2004 (wild guess)
EB1 may a bit better off since atleast there is a hope that 2006 will become current in 2008, when we can file 485..
**********

Well EB2 will also be not better than EB3 because 50% of current EB3 are going to file for EB2 and most of them will get it...hence you can see the same rush in EB2.

i said EB3 is hopeless after PD of 2003.

there is no hope for INDIA for 2006 (cutoff PD will just inch by a year or so)
because of Schedule-A worker eating up all the india's visas (unless i am wrong, i have not got any clarification from anyone so far???)

things may move a little in 2007 only, when EB1 may move by few years, only because 1% of us have a PhD, and there is not a big backlog in EB1 up until 2004-2005.

all this is for INDIA only.
 
krprasad said:
**********
EB3 after 2003 is hopeless....
EB2 after 2004 (wild guess)
EB1 may a bit better off since atleast there is a hope that 2006 will become current in 2008, when we can file 485..
**********

Well EB2 will also be not better than EB3 because 50% of current EB3 are going to file for EB2 and most of them will get it...hence you can see the same rush in EB2.

i said EB3 is hopeless after PD of 2003.

there is no hope for INDIA for 2006 (cutoff PD will just inch by a year or so)
because of Schedule-A worker eating up all the india's visas (unless i am wrong, i have not got any clarification from anyone so far???)

things may move a little in 2007 only, when EB1 may move by few years, only because 1% of us have a PhD, and there is not a big backlog in EB1 up until 2004-2005.

all this is for INDIA only.
Click to expand...

Hi krprasad, What is the estimate time for PD cutoff date would move to 2003 for EB3 India ?
 
MAybe sometime after 2009-2010 after the next election. EB3 India will be even later in 2011 or later.
 
I can see EB3 in big trouble. I still don't understand the cut offs for EB1 and 2. USCIS didn't approve that many I485 and not that many I485 pending either. And according to the tracker of this forum, not many Eb2 before 2002 either.

What's the issue? Why we just keep singing dooms day song? I think USA just don't want us here, not all the excecuses they brought up.
 
What is this ?!!

catdog said:
MAybe sometime after 2009-2010 after the next election. EB3 India will be even later in 2011 or later.
Click to expand...
Catdog, why are you interrupting other conversations by providing baseless and fictitious information? I have noticed your other posts in other threads. What exactly are you upto? Are you trying to provide a social service by encouraging people to leave for India - or are you here to mentally harrass them by picking on their current vulnerabilites? In either case, this website serves people from numerous countries of the world - many of them have very legitimate reasons to seek immigration here in US, I'm sure - and not everyone's country is progressing like India and China. So will you please stop this undesired and indecent behaviour? Thanks.
 
A way out? Schedule A Group 2(aliens of exceptional ability in the sciences or arts)

I spoke with some one at State Department today to check if Group 2 of Schedule A (aliens of exceptional ability in the sciences or arts including college and university teachers of exceptional ability) is CURRENT for India. He assured me it was and and when I asked him about requirements, he asked me to search the doleta site.

Requirements:

Schedule A, Group II includes aliens of exceptional ability in the sciences and arts (except performing arts) including college and university teachers of exceptional ability who have been practicing their science or art during the year prior to application and who intend to practice the same science or art in the United States.

To apply for Schedule A designation, the employer must submit a completed, uncertified Form ETA-750 in duplicate to the BCIS along with the I-140 petition. An employer shall apply for a labor certification for a Schedule A occupation by filing an ETA Form 9089, in duplicate with the appropriate USCIS Center, NOT with the Department of Labor or a SWA.

An employer seeking labor certification on behalf of an alien under Group II of Schedule A shall file, as part of its labor certification application, documentary evidence:

* testifying the widespread acclaim and international recognition accorded the alien by recognized experts in their field;

* and documentation showing that the alien’s work in that field during the past year did, and the alien’s intended work in the United States will, require exceptional ability.

In addition, the employer shall file, as part of the labor certification application, documentation concerning the alien from at least two of the following seven groups:

1. Documentation of the alien’s receipt of internationally recognized prizes or awards for excellence in the field for which certification is sought.

2. Documentation of the alien’s membership in international associations, in the field for which certification is sought, which require outstanding achievement of their members, as judged by recognized international experts in their disciplines or fields.

3. Material in professional publications about the alien, relating to the alien’s work in the field for which certification is sought, which shall include the title, date, and author of such published material.

4. Evidence of the alien’s participation on a panel, or individually, as a judge of the work of others in the same or in an allied field of specialization to that for which certification is sought.

5. Evidence of the alien’s original scientific or scholarly research contributions of major significance in the field for which certification is sought.

6. Evidence of the alien’s authorship of published scientific or scholarly articles in the field for which certification is sought, in international professional journals or professional journals with an international circulation.

7. Evidence of the display of the alien’s work, in the field for which certification is sought, at artistic exhibitions in more than one country.


(So its not just nurses and physical therapists who can escape the retrogression.)
Has any one gone this route or planning to use Schedule A Group 2?

If so please post your experiences
 
lcsilence,
It is a good observation. probably shusterman just shoot it from his mind as this would be the his first thought. My guess is say if there are 350K cases say 2.5 people per case. so in backlog centers there are virtually about 900K cases pending. In these 900K cases about 50K pre 2000, 100K -->2000, 150K-->2001, 150K-->2002, 200K-->2003, 300K-->2004, 50K-->2005
then you can do math on how many of these are Indians and per country limits etc etc. But do you think my estimate is wrong ? people who started ther process in 2000/2001 /2002 allready got there GC except for the people who filed from NY/NJ/CA/DC/Maryland and some more places, but they should be less than 2003 and certainly less than 2004. So my take is people who started in 2003 or later are in real trouble. Please with PD in 2002 or earlier will see things clearing up in 2-3 years, but for people with 2003 and later will not see their green cards until there are some changes by the government.
 
If some one has good knowledge about MS-Access or Excel or whatever in handling huge data like 500K records, we can find out an approximation on what is going on with DOL. I tried to analyze the data but not very successfull.

Website: http://flcdatacenter.com/casesearchperm.asp

We can download a text file containing information about all the labor applications filed between 10/01/1996 and 12/3/2003. This can be linked in access or excel... With that, some simple programs can show how many are pending at every date (it gives PD) by comparing with the last event. With some more effort we can go beyond and compare prevailing wage etc.. for EB2 and EB3. I guess mostly people from India are Tech people so we can compare OCC_Title with Software engineer or Programmer Analyst or whatever is under Math category.

Any volunteers?

-GcNov2004
 
GcNov2004 said:
If some one has good knowledge about MS-Access or Excel or whatever in handling huge data like 500K records, we can find out an approximation on what is going on with DOL. I tried to analyze the data but not very successfull.

Website: http://flcdatacenter.com/casesearchperm.asp

We can download a text file containing information about all the labor applications filed between 10/01/1996 and 12/3/2003. This can be linked in access or excel... With that, some simple programs can show how many are pending at every date (it gives PD) by comparing with the last event. With some more effort we can go beyond and compare prevailing wage etc.. for EB2 and EB3. I guess mostly people from India are Tech people so we can compare OCC_Title with Software engineer or Programmer Analyst or whatever is under Math category.

Any volunteers?

-GcNov2004
Click to expand...

I did think about using this data BUT it doesn't contain the EB classification variable or the country of origin variable. There isn't sufficient data to construct an EB classification; we can't assume that all tech related applicants are Indian, or the converse.

I'd be happy to do some number crunching if someone tracks down data with the PD, last event, EB classification and country of origin. I haven't found anything like that yet.
 
GC in-Waiting

GCin-waitng said:
I spoke with some one at State Department today to check if Group 2 of Schedule A (aliens of exceptional ability in the sciences or arts including college and university teachers of exceptional ability) is CURRENT for India. He assured me it was and and when I asked him about requirements, he asked me to search the doleta site.

Requirements:

Schedule A, Group II includes aliens of exceptional ability in the sciences and arts (except performing arts) including college and university teachers of exceptional ability who have been practicing their science or art during the year prior to application and who intend to practice the same science or art in the United States.

To apply for Schedule A designation, the employer must submit a completed, uncertified Form ETA-750 in duplicate to the BCIS along with the I-140 petition. An employer shall apply for a labor certification for a Schedule A occupation by filing an ETA Form 9089, in duplicate with the appropriate USCIS Center, NOT with the Department of Labor or a SWA.

An employer seeking labor certification on behalf of an alien under Group II of Schedule A shall file, as part of its labor certification application, documentary evidence:

* testifying the widespread acclaim and international recognition accorded the alien by recognized experts in their field;

* and documentation showing that the alien’s work in that field during the past year did, and the alien’s intended work in the United States will, require exceptional ability.

In addition, the employer shall file, as part of the labor certification application, documentation concerning the alien from at least two of the following seven groups:

1. Documentation of the alien’s receipt of internationally recognized prizes or awards for excellence in the field for which certification is sought.

2. Documentation of the alien’s membership in international associations, in the field for which certification is sought, which require outstanding achievement of their members, as judged by recognized international experts in their disciplines or fields.

3. Material in professional publications about the alien, relating to the alien’s work in the field for which certification is sought, which shall include the title, date, and author of such published material.

4. Evidence of the alien’s participation on a panel, or individually, as a judge of the work of others in the same or in an allied field of specialization to that for which certification is sought.

5. Evidence of the alien’s original scientific or scholarly research contributions of major significance in the field for which certification is sought.

6. Evidence of the alien’s authorship of published scientific or scholarly articles in the field for which certification is sought, in international professional journals or professional journals with an international circulation.

7. Evidence of the display of the alien’s work, in the field for which certification is sought, at artistic exhibitions in more than one country.


(So its not just nurses and physical therapists who can escape the retrogression.)
Has any one gone this route or planning to use Schedule A Group 2?

If so please post your experiences
Click to expand...

Hi GC in - Waiting
First I want to tell U
Thanks a lot for your info....
My case is
VSC EB-3
PD Nov 2001
I-765 AD
I-140 AD
I-485 Waiting
Now I have one thing my I-140 is notice type:
Section: Skilled Worker or Professional,
Sec. 203(b) (3) (A) (i) or (ii)

hi my friend, could tell me what exact .... is it schedule A or some thing
which catagery??????

if U can really i appreciates that

thanks
smkr 999


Thanks lot
 
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