10/07/2005: Shocking EB Visa Numbers Prediction for FY 2006 and FY 2007
The AILA has reported the FY 2006 and FY 2007 Employment-Based Visa Number predication based on the information from the State Department and the Labor Department. It is literally shocking.
The recapture number from prior employment-based visa numbers, which we reported in our Visa Retrogression Q&A, approximately 101,000 have been almost completely exhausted, and fewer unused family-based immigrant visas out of about 89,000 are available for employment-based cases. Accordingly, recapturable numbers are practically almost gone.
The visa numbers for FY 2006 and FY 2007 which have been provided by the State Department to the AILA are so stunning that one feels completely lost. See the following figures:
FY 2005--249,000 (attributable recapture from the EB unused numbers and spillovers from the family-based categories)
FY 2006--156,000 (actual number is estimated to be about 6,000 fewer than this figure!)
FY 2007--148,000
For the Worldwide EB-2 numbers, it predicts that it may remain current at least through December 31, 2005, and then may retrogress during the 2nd quarter of FY-2006 (January - March 2006). What's more, a cut-off date may be established during the 3rd (April - June 2006) or 4th quarter (July - September 2006).
India used 45,000 EB immigrant visas in all of the employment-based visa categories in FY 2005, but in FY 2006, the per-country limit in all EB categories will only be 10,700, and of that 10,700, the number available per-country in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 categories is projected to be only 9,180 or less.
The 245(i) cases which were filed mostly before April 31, 2001 will more or less seriously affect the pace of the visa number progression. But look at the estimate of 245(i) which is pending at the DOL. The number is staggering. There are estimated to be approximately 345,000 245(i) applications with the DOL. Without doubt, some of these applications will be denied, withdrawn or abandoned, but the prediction indicates that as many as 250,000-275,000 direct beneficiaries plus additional derivative beneficiaries of their family members (average 2.5) will move into I-140 and I-485 streams in the future.
Again, as we emphasized in our Visa Retrogression Q&A, the only solution is to push the Congress to pass the Immigration Reform legislation as soon as possible. You all should join in this force to lobby the Congress and refute the anti-immigration forces!
... but if Nathan Deal has his way (H.R.698 in the 109th congress)... that wont help either