Retrogression: Doing the Math

What is it about the AC-21 kicking in?

infostarved said:
To predict the future you have to explain the past... so listen up ppl....

Disclaimers and prerequisites...
1. I am assuming you have read and understood the statutary limits on employment based immigration. Please refer to my older post on reading material if you havent.
2. Forget for the moment AC21 - the pool of 100K visas from '99,'00 - it hasnt kicked in since FY2002... there was no need.
3. All statements below are logical conjectures on my part substantiated with facts and events wherever possible


You have to go back to FY2003 to understand this.

FY2003
-------
1. FY2003 had 64K unused family based visas (FB overflow) which by law is avlbl to EB guys in FY2004. So total EB limit for FY2004 was 140K + 64K = 204K (source: http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/FlowReportLegalPermResidents2004.pdf).

FY2004
-------
Look at the FY2004 limit of 204K EB visas. This makes a *minimum* of 58K avlbl to each of EB1,EB2 and EB3 (the 28.6% rule). The following were the real consumptions....
EB1 = 31K, EB2=32K
(source: http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/FlowReportLegalPermResidents2004.pdf)

So, at the minimum, EB3 had (58K - 31K) + (58K-32K) + 58K = 111K this year.
Actual consumption in EB3 was 86K, much less than the visas avlbl. Since nobody went home unsatisfied, per-country caps evaporated too. So all dates were current all through FY2004.

FY2005
--------
For FY2005, the FB overflow from '04 was only 8K (source: Sep 05 bulletin). Therefore the total avlbl EB visas on '05 are 140K + 8K = 148K. This brings the visas avbl to EB1 and EB2 to only 28.6%*148K = 42K each. From 04's experience state dept expects....

(42K - 31K) + (42K - 32K) + 42K = 63K visas avlbl for EB3.

From 04's experience, state dept also knows that this number is not enough (86K > 63K) and somebody is going to go unhappy... so for sure the caps cannot be lifted, so it makes noises early in the year and imposes EB3 cut-off dates of 1 Jan 2002 on oversubscribed countries in the Jan 05 bulletin.

Furthermore, the per-quarter limitation of 27%, makes only

27% * 63K = 17K EB3 visas avlbl in Q1 of FY2005.

Sure enough, if demand aped the previous year, these 17K would be gobbled up in...
17K/86K * 12 = 2.36 months i.e mid Dec 04.

... exactly what the Jan 05 bulletin says in section D.2

At this point, state dept probably hopes that the cutoffs will reduce the EB3 consumption from oversubscribed countries significantly, probably enough to keep away from a worldwide EB3 cutoff. But no such luck....

Enter the just-got-labor-done-with-PDs-before-Jan02 folks in the rest of FY2005.... and the worldwide demand stays put.

So lo and behold EB3 becomes unavailable - "U" - without so much as a worldwide cutoff. How many months does it take to get to U?

63K/86K * 12 = 8.79 months.

Count 8.79 months from Oct 04 (beginning of FY2005) and tell me when it should become "U" guys ... tell me guys.... July 2005

I rest my case. Was long-labor-getting-done-now to blame like the bulletins keep claiming? Yes it did play a role in blindsiding the state dept. Is it the entire truth? Absolutely not!

The million dollar question is.... why hasn't AC21 kicked in already... and what's with the doomsday prediction about slow PD progress in the bulletins.

What is it about the AC-21 kicking in? What are you referring to? Can you please elaborate? Thanks in advance.
 
Prasad ..I think it will be faster than that (optimistic thinking) ..since many people who did apply in 2000, 2001 and 2002 already got their GC. well in any case I intend to keep all my savings liquid ...bangalore seems to be a great place to be in nowadays !!!!
 
unitednations said:
keep in mind that within eb3 there is "professional" and "skilled workers". Other workers are non degree and less then two years of experience.

Most of the 245i labors are actually skilled worker. chefs, cooks, carpenters, construction workers, drycleaners, etc. all their labors require two years of experience. All eb3 workers will compete with these category of workers. That is the main reason why other countries are retrogressed to March 2001 because these labors were generally filed by the illegal workers from all countries. Unfortunately, since other countries are using up their quota, there won't be a spillover to india/china/mexico, etc.

The bright side (don't know if it is bright), is that every tom, dick and harry filed a 245i labor for their friends. However, I've worked on cases where some of these companies had $15,000 in revenue. Although there are many labors filed, since most of them were illegals, they do not show they worked for the company and they have immense difficulty in getting the 140 approved.
Thanks for your inputs UN!
I read that DOS determine the cut-off date based on approved 140, so 245i labors which are not approved are not included in the cut-off date decision.
In other word, for non-retro affected countries, March, 2001 does NOT factored in most of 245i cases. Comments thanks.
 
According to DOL, the cut-off dates are according to the I140 that are about to be approved, not approved yet.
 
A Question for United Nations

My I-485 was filed in Dec. 2004, just before the dates retrogressed
on 1 Jan 2005. Just when I was seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, since I got my second FP in 9 months, the dates retogressed further to Jan 98 for Indians.

My question to you in this situation is that since USCIS is currently under the pressure of reducing processing times of all the petitions and applications
to 6 months by Sep 2006, at least that is what is being claimed by them, what is going to happen to all pending (I-485) cases with USCIS. Since they are working towards achieving the 6 months goal, will they clear all pending cases, for more than six months, before 30 Sep 2006? If they wait for the dates to become current before approving such cases, will it not defeat the very purpose they are working for, i.e. the cases will be pending for more than six months.

----------------------------
PD - Nov. 2002
I-485 - Dec. 2004
1 FP - Jan 2005
2 FP/Biometrics - Sep 2005
 
What is the bottomline ?

I have two of my LC cases pending at BECs. both EB2 RIR
1st one is with PD of Aug 09 2004 - Chicago
2nd one with PD of Dec 21 2004.- Maine

Under any reasonable calculations ( taking into account for instance, that the Visa numbers are doubled - which is a dream that never comes true), what could be the time frame I can or one can expect with the above PDs ?

Can anyone please advice?,Since I am having a Canadian PR and looking forward to pack bags and move on for a change and a new life. Some how I am looking at 6-7 years from now at a minimum.

Thanks
 
101000 recaptures

"Approximately 101,000 of those numbers remained available for use in FY-2005, and there will be about 8,000 remaining for use in FY-2006."

My question, I saw "101,000 (AC 21 recaptures)remained for use in 2005" from different articles numerous times. Does this mean it had been used up in 2005, or it's still available but needs to be allocated evenly to many year to come?
Thanks for your answer.
 
Doesn't add up

The more I think about this latest report the more I am inclined to dismiss it. It just does not add up.

1. USCIS in its entire history has not processed more than 175K applications a year and now we are talking about doing about 200K in 9 months?
2. The Sep 05 bulletin says in as many words that the limit for EB in FY2005 was 148K. Shouldn't we be seeing something in the vicinity of 250K if this were true?
3. I find it very hard to believe they ran out of EB3 numbers in July inspite of pumping in all these AC21 numbers.

As for even allocation, I think congress needs to approve any such thing. AC21 has no rationing provision... if there's enough demand it could (and should) go out in a single year.


jnpr said:
"Approximately 101,000 of those numbers remained available for use in FY-2005, and there will be about 8,000 remaining for use in FY-2006."

My question, I saw "101,000 (AC 21 recaptures)remained for use in 2005" from different articles numerous times. Does this mean it had been used up in 2005, or it's still available but needs to be allocated evenly to many year to come?
Thanks for your answer.
 
infostarved, please read your personal message

Hi Infostarved, I have sent you a personal message. Please can you respond to it. Just give me your 2 cents. I guess, you have calculated already 73k GC application are in USCIS. 21% is a typical EB-2 number (again taken from this thread itself).

The total number of BEC cases is 350,000. I have seen 1/4th alleged to be 245i cases. So I have done some numbers...It's hard to find permonth eb-2 or total GC application. (we can always do 21% aprox calculation). I had a distribution of some stateS (in PBC reduction center thread), and basd on that my approx calculation said, of all cases (total e-B2 and EB-3) 10% of cases were EB-2 and were before mid of year 2002.

First please dont use my numbers to do your calculations, as they lack any serious analysis. But still read this and then read my personal message and then, can you please answer my query.
I know that eventually with your calculations, you are going to do an analysis like this but give it a rough shot.

rgds
 
infostarved said:
The more I think about this latest report the more I am inclined to dismiss it. It just does not add up.

1. USCIS in its entire history has not processed more than 175K applications a year and now we are talking about doing about 200K in 9 months?
2. The Sep 05 bulletin says in as many words that the limit for EB in FY2005 was 148K. Shouldn't we be seeing something in the vicinity of 250K if this were true?
3. I find it very hard to believe they ran out of EB3 numbers in July inspite of pumping in all these AC21 numbers.

As for even allocation, I think congress needs to approve any such thing. AC21 has no rationing provision... if there's enough demand it could (and should) go out in a single year.
I have the same doubts as you. However, if you think this 100k recaptures were not used up yet, where are they?
 
My 140 was approved on Jan 13, 2005.
485 and 140 was concurrently flied on Aug 18th 2004,
My PD is Oct 3, 2001.

FP was done on June 2005, I am on my second EAD and AP (Expiring June 2006) my H-1 expires on Oct 1, 2005,

What does this new Retrogration mean to me.
I was so close, they were processing as of Aug 16th 2004, when the EB3 cap was hit and was hoping to be done with this final hurdle in Oct or Nov.
 
Nkelkar, these two question from murthy.com will help solve your doubt
--------------------------------------------------------------
Question 1. My I-485 is already pending or will be filed by the end of September 2005. If my case is filed before retrogression / cutoff dates are established in my category, do I need to worry about all of this? Is my case affected?
Answer:
Yes and yes. In order to file the I-485, there must be a currently available visa number. However, to obtain the I-485 approval there must also be a currently available visa number. Thus, those who have I-485s filed, or who will get them filed while the priority dates are available for their cases, still need to be concerned about retrogression and cutoff dates. The pending I-485 cases cannot be approved until the visa number becomes available sometime in the future. People with these cases will be able to wait this out and obtain employment authorization document extensions and advance parole extensions year after year. Their green cards will await the availability of the visa number in the particular visa category, however.
©MurthyDotCom

Question2: Starting from January 01, 2005, are service centers going to follow cut-off dates as their processing dates for processing I-485s? Thanks for your excellent service.
Answer:
The USCIS has not stated if they will follow any cut-off dates in processing I-485s. We know that, previously, when the priority dates (or PDs) were backlogged, only CSC was not processing those I-485s with backlogged dates when the visa numbers were not current. The other service centers were previously processing the cases and sending out the approval letter with the note that the person could get the PP stamped when the PD became current. The USCIS has not made a policy decision on what they plan to do this time around.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
What I get from the above two is that Priority dates counts not just while filing 485, but also during approving the case.

This said, there is hope that like before they might approve the case and tell that PP stamping can be done when PD becomes current
Lets hope and pray that they make this policy decision.
 
You changed the answer for the second question????

satishshetty5 said:
Nkelkar, these two question from murthy.com will help solve your doubt
--------------------------------------------------------------
Question 1. My I-485 is already pending or will be filed by the end of September 2005. If my case is filed before retrogression / cutoff dates are established in my category, do I need to worry about all of this? Is my case affected?
Answer:
Yes and yes. In order to file the I-485, there must be a currently available visa number. However, to obtain the I-485 approval there must also be a currently available visa number. Thus, those who have I-485s filed, or who will get them filed while the priority dates are available for their cases, still need to be concerned about retrogression and cutoff dates. The pending I-485 cases cannot be approved until the visa number becomes available sometime in the future. People with these cases will be able to wait this out and obtain employment authorization document extensions and advance parole extensions year after year. Their green cards will await the availability of the visa number in the particular visa category, however.
©MurthyDotCom

Question2: Starting from January 01, 2005, are service centers going to follow cut-off dates as their processing dates for processing I-485s? Thanks for your excellent service.
Answer:
The USCIS has not stated if they will follow any cut-off dates in processing I-485s. We know that, previously, when the priority dates (or PDs) were backlogged, only CSC was not processing those I-485s with backlogged dates when the visa numbers were not current. The other service centers were previously processing the cases and sending out the approval letter with the note that the person could get the PP stamped when the PD became current. The USCIS has not made a policy decision on what they plan to do this time around.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
What I get from the above two is that Priority dates counts not just while filing 485, but also during approving the case.

This said, there is hope that like before they might approve the case and tell that PP stamping can be done when PD becomes current
Lets hope and pray that they make this policy decision.
 
You changed the answer for the second question????

Please refer to the link below to confirm the answer

h**p://www.murthy.com/Chatdb.asp?Search=priority%20dates&Type=All&page=2
 
How DoS actually implements cut-off dates

Interesting stuff in the visa bulletin for July 2000.

http://dosfan.lib.uic.edu/ERC/visa_bulletin/2000-07bulletin.html

====================================
E. THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM

The Department of State is responsible for administering the provisions of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) relating to the numerical limitations on immigrant visa issuances. The following information provides a brief explanation of the operation of the immigrant number allotment and control system.

DEFINITION OF SOME TERMS

Allotment

The allocation of an immigrant number to a consular office or to INS. This number may be used for visa issuance or adjustment of status, or may be returned unused to the Visa Office (VO) for reincorporating into the pool of numbers available for later allocation during the fiscal year.

Foreign State Chargeability

Ordinarily an immigrant is chargeable for visa purposes to the numerical limitation for the foreign state or dependent area in which the immigrant's place of birth is located. Exceptions are provided for a child (unmarried and under 21 years of age) or spouse accompanying or following to join a principal to prevent the separation of family members, as well as for an applicant born in the U.S. or in a foreign state of which neither parent was a native or resident. Alternate chargeability is desirable when the visa cut-off date for the foreign state of a parent or spouse is more advantageous than that of the applicant's foreign state.

Priority Date

The priority date of a preference visa applicant is the filing date of the petition that accorded preference status.

Documentarily Qualified

The applicant has informed the consular processing office that they have obtained (after being requested to do so) all of the documents which are required to meet the formal visa application requirements.

HOW THE SYSTEM OPERATES

At the beginning of each month, the Visa Office receives a report from each immigrant visa processing post listing totals of documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants in categories subject to numerical limitation.

Cases are grouped by foreign state chargeability/preference/priority date. No names are reported. During the first week of each month, this documentarily qualified demand is tabulated.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations which are specified by the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) into twelve monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants reported to VO, and the expected INS demand for numbers, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. This allows for the determination of the monthly cut-off dates, and the allotment of numbers for reported applicants who have priority dates within the newly established cut-off dates.

If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "current."

Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be "oversubscribed" and a visa availability cut-off date is established. The cut-off date is the priority date of the first documentarily qualified applicant who could not be accommodated for a visa number. Only persons with a priority date earlier than a cut-off date are entitled to allotment of a visa number. The cut-off dates are ordinarily the 1st, 8th, 15th, and 22nd of a month, since VO groups demand for numbers under these dates. (Priority dates of the first through seventh of a month are grouped under the 1st, the eighth through the fourteenth under the 8th, etc.)

VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month. The dates, along with visa allotments for use during that month, are immediately transmitted to consular posts, and also published in the Visa Bulletin.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ON THE SYSTEM AND CLARIFICATION OF SOME FREQUENTLY MISUNDERSTOOD POINTS

Applicants entitled to immigrant status become documentarily qualified at their own initiative and convenience. By no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing cut-off date been processed for final visa action. On the contrary, visa allotments are made only on the basis of the total applicants reported documentarily qualified each month, and the expected INS number use. Demand for visa numbers can fluctuate from one month to another, with the inevitable impact on cut-off dates.

If an applicant is reported documentarily qualified but allocation of a visa number is not possible because of a visa availability cut-off date, the demand is recorded at VO and an allocation is made as soon as the applicable cut-off date advances beyond the applicant's priority date. Visa numbers are always allotted for all documentarily qualified applicants with a priority date before the relevant cut-off date, as long as the case had been reported to VO in time to be included in the monthly calculation of visa availability. There is no exception to this principle.

Allocations outside the regular monthly cycle are possible only in emergency or exceptional cases, and only at the request of the office processing the case. Note that should retrogression of a cut-off date be announced, VO can honor extraordinary requests for additional numbers only if the applicant's priority date is earlier than the retrogressed cut-off date.

Not all numbers allocated are actually used for visa issuance; some are returned to VO and are reincorporated into the pool of numbers available for later allocation during the fiscal year. The rate of return of unused numbers may fluctuate from month to month, just as demand may fluctuate. Lower returns mean fewer numbers available for subsequent reallocation. Fluctuations can cause cut-off date movement to slow, stop, or even retrogress. Retrogression is particularly possible near the end of the fiscal year as visa issuance approaches the annual limitations.

The annual per-country limitation is a cap which visa issuances to any single country may not exceed. Applicants compete for visas primarily on a worldwide basis. The country limitation serves to avoid monopolization of virtually all the annual limitation by applicants from only a few countries. This limitation is not a quota to which any particular country is entitled, however. Clearly all countries could not receive up to their numerical limit since the worldwide annual limitation would not permit visa issuances anywhere close to such a total.

Applicability of Section 202(e): When visa demand by documentarily qualified applicants from a particular country exceeds the amount of numbers available under the annual numerical limitation that country is considered to be oversubscribed. This oversubscription may require the establishment of a cut-off date, which is earlier than that which applies to a particular visa category on a worldwide basis. The prorating of numbers for an oversubscribed country follows the same percentages specified for the division of the worldwide annual limitation among the preferences. (Note that visa availability cut-off dates for oversubscribed areas cannot be later than worldwide cut-off dates, if any, for the respective preferences.)

===========================
 
Infostarved,

You are amazing.. where do you dig out all this info? I see you have a tremendous, insatiable appetite for information. Thanks for your posts.

I would love to hear your predictions too.. How long do you think this retrogression last? Do you think there is any hope that the mysterious 101K recaptured visas will be made available to us this year? Were you able to get any additional info about what happened to those visa numbers?
 
Hail the master .......Infostarved.
I dont think you are still info starved.
But if you are then you are sure going to quench that thirst and we will benifit out of it.

neocor
 
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