Retrogression: Doing the Math

350k Visas Include 245-I

Kudos infostarved. With all the confusing generated with this retrogression your calculations provide little insight into this whole process. BECs have reported that there are pending 350k applicaitions. But my guess is there are lot of labor applications for 245-I. In 245-I most of the applications where under Other Worker category and there may be duplicates as well. I guess once BECs finish entering the applications and get responses to 45day letters this number will go down significantly.

So my conclusion is till BECs get back on track things will remain hazy.
 
nashdel said:
I have been reading math for few days now and seems very complicated. I was doing my math (which I have given up at high school).

Here is what I think

If you go by muthy.com there are 350K labor in BEC and possibly more. That will translate into 485 requirements of about 1 million (given family size of 2-3) and taking into consideration that EB1 and certain EB2 does not require Labor.

I am not taking into account india or china. Just look worldwide. There are 140 K 485 that can be accepted in one year. At rate of 140K how many years it will take to clear 1 million requirement for 485 which are already into queue.


Now think about india and china. I personally have not filed labor yet though I have been in this country for 6 years. On H1b for one year (EB2 India). Just calculate for people like me who have practically not even born here yet.

Suppose I file my LC next month and Get a priority date. I have to wait for those 1 million people to clear up plus I have to give way to anyone who comes after me as long as he is not from India and China. for example, all people who come from nepal over next 8 years will supercede me as their PD is current.

Now H1B limit is 65K + at this time. Even if 30k are from countries other than india and china, with family size of 2.5 100K are given to these people. Imagine how long it will take to get me my GC. I have given up unless someone tell me I am wrong. I guess I have to save some money and go back home as soon as I get a window of opportunity back home.
Click to expand...

The situation over here in US does look grim unless the Congress markedly increases the number of green cards issued each year. If I were you I would wait and watch for one more year. If things have not improved by then I would lookfor opportunities in India or China.
 
china ?

Don't even think about China, it is pretty closed society. There are enough labor and Talent available in China to respod to their demand. If they see lot of desis there. they'll hunt everbody down.
 
EB1-india math

as u all know there is no labor for EB1, and from what i have heard, I-140 gets approved in 3-6 months for 75% of people (optimist guess).

and i think concurrent filing was allowed somewhere around 2003(i dont know exactly)

i would like to now calculate total applications pending till date (because i have not filed yet, hence i need to know people ahead of me in the queue).

assuming that 70% of people who applied till 2003 got their 485 that means their numbers has been counted, that means they are not in the queue.

and 50% people who applied till june 2004, got their 485 (optimistic guess)

my assumption is that not more than 5000 people may have been filing EB1-india.

approximate guess of pending application, EB1-india till aug 2002,
I think not more than 1000

till 2002------------ 1000
till 2003-------------1500 (30% of 5000)
till 2004 june--------1250 (50% of 2500)
till 2005 oct -------- 3750
_______________________________________
total ---------------7500

per year limit for EB1-india = 2800

assuming that because of some old visa number this goes upto 3500 for 2006
to clear the above queue.

2006 ----3500
2007 ----2800
2008-----2800 (i will get my 485 in this year :rolleyes: )

some one please verify if above approximations or badly off place...

not a great outlook but better than eb3 and eb2....atleast some hope is there...
 
Did you include 2.36 family members per primary applicant in your calculation? If not, you need to multiply 7500 with 2.36 which converts to around 17000 visa number requirement.

krprasad said:
my assumption is that not more than 5000 people may have been filing EB1-india.

approximate guess of pending application, EB1-india till aug 2002,
I think not more than 1000

till 2002------------ 1000
till 2003-------------1500 (30% of 5000)
till 2004 june--------1250 (50% of 2500)
till 2005 oct -------- 3750
_______________________________________
total ---------------7500

per year limit for EB1-india = 2800

assuming that because of some old visa number this goes upto 3500 for 2006
to clear the above queue.

2006 ----3500
2007 ----2800
2008-----2800 (i will get my 485 in this year :rolleyes: )

some one please verify if above approximations or badly off place...

not a great outlook but better than eb3 and eb2....atleast some hope is there...
Click to expand...
 
I am not an expert at this but based on my understanding 140k includes numbers for family members. In Yr 2004 total employment based visas issued were 155k which I think are result of spill overs from family based and other categories.
 
thats my point....

2004 -- Family-sponsored preferences............214,355

2004---Employment-based preferences..........155,330

i am also not exactly sure how these two add up, but i think, it looks like 155k is mostly employment based, and 214 is their dependents plus some others.
 
Wrong

That's not true. No such luck :)..

The 155K includes EB immigrants and their spouses and children.

Family based 214K is spouses, children and other relatives of permanent residents and citizens.

Look at immigration and nationality act (8USC 1153 (a) and (b)) - if you are an info junkie like I am that is :)..


krprasad said:
thats my point....

2004 -- Family-sponsored preferences............214,355

2004---Employment-based preferences..........155,330

i am also not exactly sure how these two add up, but i think, it looks like 155k is mostly employment based, and 214 is their dependents plus some others.
Click to expand...
 
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/YrBk04Im.htm
Table 5 (yr 2004)

The table shows that it includes numbers for family members

Total, employment preferences 155,330

Total, 1st preference 31,291
Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11) 350
Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16) 2,046
Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12) 107
Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17) 3,006
Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13) 1,190
Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18) 6,588
Spouses of E11, E12, E13, E16, E17, or E18, new arrivals (E14) 1,162
Spouses of E11, E12, E13, E16, E17, or E18, adjustments (E19) 8,023
Children of E11, E12, E13, E16, E17, or E18, new arrivals (E15) 1,422
Children of E11, E12, E13, E16, E17, or E18, adjustments (E10) 7,397

Total, 2nd preference 32,534
Professionals holding advanced degrees, new arrivals (E21) 604
Professionals holding advanced degrees, adjustments (E26) 15,273
Spouses of E21 or E26, new arrivals (E22) 484
Spouses of E21 or E26, adjustments (E27) 11,610
Children of E21 or E26, new arrivals (E23) 312
Children of E21 or E26, adjustments (E28) 4,251

Total, 3rd preference 85,969
Skilled workers, new arrivals (E31) 3,270
Skilled workers, adjustments (E36) 16,360
Professionals with baccalaureate degrees, new arrivals (E32) 3,788
Professionals with baccalaureate degrees, adjustments (E37) 16,346
Spouses of E31, E32, E36, or E37, new arrivals (E34) 4,741
Spouses of E31, E32, E36, or E37, adjustments (E39) 19,813
Children of E31, E32, E36, or E37, new arrivals (E35) 6,988
Children of E31, E32, E36, or E37, adjustments (E30) 11,355
Chinese Student Protection Act (CSPA) principals, adjustments (EC6) D
 
EB2 or EB3?

My EB3 was filed in Sept 03 from Nebraska region and EB2 was filed on Oct 04 from Vermont region. Now that EB3 and Eb2 are retogressed to Jan 98 and Nov 99, I am confused on taking up EB2 or EB3.
Please advice.
 
I stand corrected...thanks a bunch for the new information...

but i think my dates will remain similar since i had overestimated EB1-india as 5000 per year from 2003 onwards (before it used to be less, but in the recent years many medical doctors have started coming to usa, and they also use EB1, i am not very sure....this is just a educated assumption)

to make it short i will assume that EB1-india filing of application including family is around 5000, and quota is around 2800 per year.

since if we look at the primary EB1 numbers they are, much less than my previous assumption.

the below is for EB1 primary for all over the world.
------------------------------------
Aliens with extraordinary ability, new arrivals (E11) 350
Aliens with extraordinary ability, adjustments (E16) 2,046
Outstanding professors or researchers, new arrivals (E12) 107
Outstanding professors or researchers, adjustments (E17) 3,006
Multinational executives or managers, new arrivals (E13) 1,190
Multinational executives or managers, adjustments (E18) 6,588
 
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Good Calculations ..but

I am new to this site and I was impressed by the calculations for retro.
can someone tell me this ..my PD is Mar 2004 EB3 ..when can I expect to get EAD or file for it. my concept on this whole process is this ...be mobile i.e dont buy large houses or fancy cars ..if you get GC then good or be ready to move back to yr own country (with max savings so that you can have lots of breathing time) ..cheers !!!!
 
I am new to this site and I was impressed by the calculations for retro.
can someone tell me this ..my PD is Mar 2004 EB3 ..when can I expect to get EAD or file for it. my concept on this whole process is this ...be mobile i.e dont buy large houses or fancy cars ..if you get GC then good or be ready to move back to yr own country (with max savings so that you can have lots of breathing time) ..cheers !!!!
 
Info starved you seem to be good in calculations.
can someone tell me this ..my PD is Mar 2004 EB3 ..when can I expect to get EAD or file for it. my concept on this whole process is this ...be mobile i.e dont buy large houses or fancy cars ..if you get GC then good or be ready to move back to yr own country (with max savings so that you can have lots of breathing time) ..cheers !!!!
 
I had done this exact same calculation; however, did not consider spillover effect.
Is the spillover just a result of EB redistribution or rollover of unused #s from past years?
nashdel said:
Sorry for editing. Long time no math.

Infostarved, I do not know how you come up with all data and analysis but It sure needs lot of your time and brain. you sure seems to be very knowledgeable.

With information you provided I am trying doing calculation for EB2 for India who are going to have PD of 2005. (just selfish)

Total application in BEC 350K plus (I am just trusting murthy.com)

Out of this 21 percent will be EB2 which is about 70 thousand. (based on 2003 and 2004 data. Look on excel sheet at last posting)

Say Indians are 50 percent (little pessimistic,I have no data to support this): That means 35 K are Indians.

Each one has 2.05 family members that means 70K

Minimum number of EB 2 guaranteed per year per country 2800. At this rate it will take 70K/2800 = 25 years to get GC for 2005 PD.

However, there have been redistribution of visas from donor countries. Suppose that donated number is X. it will take 70K/ 2800+X = number of years to get PD 2005 GC.

This number X is difficult to guess. I am not sure how redistribution works but it will be different in future than past. ( Donor countries are shrinking, EB3 is backlogged worldwide and EB2/ EB1 quota will not spill over to EB3).

Anyway last year 38K visas were given to India after redistribution, majority going to EB3 (EB2 and EB1 were current). Whatever visas Indian get this year will not be skewed to EB3 ( if redistribution works equally it be 33 percent in each category). This also depends on how fast BEC clears backlog.

So first of all 38K is likely to shrink ( no more donor from EB3 worldwide and EB1 EB2 India/China).

Only donor left are EB1/EB2 worldwide + family based unused visa + Recapture of 100K from year 2000.

Let us just assume 38 K like last year. 33 percent will go to EB2 which is 12K (grossly). It means it will take 70K/12K = 6 years for 2005 PD. This is close to what PD dates are for EB2 (5 years backlog). Remember there may be duplicate labor and 50 percent indians is assumption only.

With this breakdown, I am not concerned about our friends coming on EB2 rest of world as they will have their own quota and does not concern me if they get superceded. If there are too many of them, donation will decrease but I do not expect backlog in EB2 Other countries.

This situation will improve and may cut down the time to less than half if McClain Kennedy bill is passed as such and 100 K is recaptured.
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mariner:

pd of march 2004, at the rate of 2800 new eb3-india every year, there must be atleast 30k applicants(2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003 major years for filing) with pd before you.

we cant expect any overflow from any other category since they are going to be over-subscribed themselves (eb1 india and eb2-india etc..)

we are looking at atleast 6-8 years.....optimistic thinking...

to tell you the fact i think either we will all leave this country after 3-4 years......or there will be a legislation change....

but the number of people coming on H1 visa from india and china wont go down because we have too many people no matter how much jobs gets created in india or china.

i am just frustrated that we were all in dark all this days, and now its almost the end of the road.
 
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Class-of-admission-wise distribution of pending GC applications

Hello All,

Page 18 of USCIS ombudsman annual report (http://www.dhs.gov/interweb/assetlibrary/CIS_AnnualReport_2005.pdf) says that as of April 2005 750K GC applications were pending at all service centers.

I cannot find the figure for the EB applications out of this 750K. Estimating this number is kind of hard... though possible using other stats. Before I get into that I wanted to check... does anybody have that stat. Can you point me to a link?

Thanks.
 
According to Muthy.com: The vast majority of legal immigrants were family-based, either as immediate relatives (spouses, children, or parents of U.S. Citizens) or through the various family-preference categories. In FY 2000 approximately 585,000 individuals were granted permanent resident status based upon their relationships to U.S. Citizens or U.S. Permanent Residents. The remaining legal immigration was through employment, accounting for approximately 100,000.

So I would say, among the 750K pending cases, at most 150K will be employment based: almost a year's worth of employment based visa quota.

I might be wrong, however I don't think the current bad situation was because too many pending I485 cases, it is more about USCIS and DOL don't know how many are going to file I485 cases which have a PD before 2002.
 
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