Retrogression: Doing the Math

Their Year Starts from Oct

Raj,
Their Year Starts from Oct. So 9 months from Oct is June. That's why begining July 2005 there were no Visas. We need to find out how many Visas are available for 2006. I think the crunch will actually begin once the backlog centers wakes up from sleep.
 
That 63K is NOT 80-17 (there is no round 80K figure anywhere in my calc). That 63K is the number of EB3 visas avlbl in FY2005 out of which 17K would have been the limit for Q1-FY2005. So the 8.79 months I calculated, under the assumption that worldwide EB3 demand for FY2005 stayed the same as '04, starts from the beginning of FY2005 i.e Oct '04

rajguy20022002 said:
...
I have only one doubt regarding the calculation where 80-17 = 63K would use 8.79 months. But this period should start from where the 17K ended i.e mid December.. Am I wrong somewhere??
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What about EB2?

infostarved...that's great analysis. You really have a lot better understading of the whole process and confounding math. My question is what happens to EB2? Though the retrogression is only marginally better (by a year or so for India)...any thoughts on that? Thanks, Deb
 
I have not gone through your latest calculation so far; but trust you on that one.
my questions center around eb2 backlog for India and\or China.
1> anyway to find out how many eb2 from India are pending at BECs? my simplistic calculation assumed 12% of 300k pending at BECs.
2> anyway to reliably predict how many max eb2 will get consumed from India yearly?
3> Is AC21 going to allow re-capture of unused numbers from 01-04? If so, why do kennedy-mccain and one other bill have such recapture as one of their provisions? maybe I am mistaken... I thought AC21 only allowed re-capture of previous year's unused numbers.

infostarved said:
That 63K is NOT 80-17 (there is no round 80K figure anywhere in my calc). That 63K is the number of EB3 visas avlbl in FY2005 out of which 17K would have been the limit for Q1-FY2005. So the 8.79 months I calculated, under the assumption that worldwide EB3 demand for FY2005 stayed the same as '04, starts from the beginning of FY2005 i.e Oct '04
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optimism is good; however, please note that lc sub is going to be a booming business even in the scenario you are predicting.
neha_wal said:
That 300K thing is true and I have read this in one of DOL releases it is in fact 350K. I only thing is in next 2-3 years lot of hopefulls will move on either filing new one in higher catagories, move to Canada etc.
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I am at work right now and I have already spent way too much time doing this :).... (neha.. inference: I aint a lawyer :)) Maybe I'll do some digging around and "predictive" analysis after I go home tonight and during the weekend. Thanks for the accolades guys... just doing whatever I can...

By the way some distinctions....

1. AC21 (signed way back in 2000 when clinton was around) makes avlbl a pool of visas recaptured specifically from 1999 and 2000 and gives it to all EB categories. There are 101K visas remaining from this pool.

2. REAL ID (signed into Law May 12, 2005) makes avlbl another pool of 50K visas recaptured from 2001 to 2004 to nurses (sched A workers). As drafted originally 50% of this recapture was to be made avlvl to all EB workers, but that part got killed somewhere in congress (Source: http://pubweb.fdbl.com/news1.nsf/7f...59f89f289994fa9b85256ffe006abda0?OpenDocument) (look under immigrant visa backlog relief)

3. Kennedy-McCain: This makes some far-reaching proposals for backlog reform. But I am not aware of any specific provisions with regard to recapture of still-unrecaptured-after-REALID visas for all EB categories. If you've seen it somewhere can you point me to a link?
 
fdbl.com has discussed mccain-kennedy bill in detail. please check out there. it not only allows re-capture of numbers going back to 01 but also rollover of unused numbers from previous to the next year.
infostarved said:
I am at work right now and I have already spent way too much time doing this :).... (neha.. inference: I aint a lawyer :)) Maybe I'll do some digging around and "predictive" analysis after I go home tonight and during the weekend. Thanks for the accolades guys... just doing whatever I can...

By the way some distinctions....

1. AC21 (signed way back in 2000 when clinton was around) makes avlbl a pool of visas recaptured specifically from 1999 and 2000 and gives it to all EB categories. There are 101K visas remaining from this pool.

2. REAL ID (signed into Law May 12, 2005) makes avlbl another pool of 50K visas recaptured from 2001 to 2004 to nurses (sched A workers). As drafted originally 50% of this recapture was to be made avlvl to all EB workers, but that part got killed somewhere in congress (Source: http://pubweb.fdbl.com/news1.nsf/7f...59f89f289994fa9b85256ffe006abda0?OpenDocument) (look under immigrant visa backlog relief)

3. Kennedy-McCain: This makes some far-reaching proposals for backlog reform. But I am not aware of any specific provisions with regard to recapture of still-unrecaptured-after-REALID visas for all EB categories. If you've seen it somewhere can you point me to a link?
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Huge Backlog

This is a recent post on Lawyer Sheela Murthy’s website
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_becupd.html
This tells us there are already 345,000 applications in Backlog centers and there applications still pending in SFO and NY, so probably numbers are beyond 400K. That is just amazing & depressing.
 
neha_wal said:
This is a recent post on Lawyer Sheela Murthy’s website
http://www.murthy.com/news/n_becupd.html
This tells us there are already 345,000 applications in Backlog centers and there applications still pending in SFO and NY, so probably numbers are beyond 400K. That is just amazing & depressing.
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I CAN JUST SAY FROM MY LABOR EXPERIENCE APPROVALS WERE MOVING ALONG AT ABOUT 2 MONTHS EVERY 3 MONTHS AND THEN SAT AT APRIL 2001 FOR ALMOST 2 YEARS THEN ONCE OVER THAT HUMP MOVED QUICKELY AT 2 MONTHS FOR EVERY MONTH

SO USING LABOR APPROVALS AS A GUIDE I WOULD SAY WE'RE LOOKING AT 2-3 YEARS TO GET PAST APRIL 2001

unfortunately.... i would expect the delays to be effected exponentially at the Visa level.

We need to to start working on legal changes....
 
I have heard rumors that the April '01 bulge was all in the "other worker" category. If that's true, then even though it held up DoL it should not have much of an impact on PD movement (otherworker per year < 10K). Can somebody confirm / trash this rumor?

nyc1999 said:
I CAN JUST SAY FROM MY LABOR EXPERIENCE APPROVALS WERE MOVING ALONG AT ABOUT 2 MONTHS EVERY 3 MONTHS AND THEN SAT AT APRIL 2001 FOR ALMOST 2 YEARS THEN ONCE OVER THAT HUMP MOVED QUICKELY AT 2 MONTHS FOR EVERY MONTH

SO USING LABOR APPROVALS AS A GUIDE I WOULD SAY WE'RE LOOKING AT 2-3 YEARS TO GET PAST APRIL 2001

unfortunately.... i would expect the delays to be effected exponentially at the Visa level.

We need to to start working on legal changes....
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Interesting link

http://www.ilw.com/immigdaily/

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The deadline to sign up is Wednesday, September 28th. For more info, including speaker bios, detailed curriculum, and registration information, please see: http://www.ilw.com/seminars/september2005.shtm. (Fax version: http://www.ilw.com/seminars/september2005.pdf.)
 
I have been reading math for few days now and seems very complicated. I was doing my math (which I have given up at high school).

Here is what I think

If you go by muthy.com there are 350K labor in BEC and possibly more. That will translate into 485 requirements of about 1 million (given family size of 2-3) and taking into consideration that EB1 and certain EB2 does not require Labor.

I am not taking into account india or china. Just look worldwide. There are 140 K 485 that can be accepted in one year. At rate of 140K how many years it will take to clear 1 million requirement for 485 which are already into queue.


Now think about india and china. I personally have not filed labor yet though I have been in this country for 6 years. On H1b for one year (EB2 India). Just calculate for people like me who have practically not even born here yet.

Suppose I file my LC next month and Get a priority date. I have to wait for those 1 million people to clear up plus I have to give way to anyone who comes after me as long as he is not from India and China. for example, all people who come from nepal over next 8 years will supercede me as their PD is current.

Now H1B limit is 65K + at this time. Even if 30k are from countries other than india and china, with family size of 2.5 100K are given to these people. Imagine how long it will take to get me my GC. I have given up unless someone tell me I am wrong. I guess I have to save some money and go back home as soon as I get a window of opportunity back home.
 
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Your calculations are a bit too pessimistic but in general I agree that worldwide cutoffs dont bode well for oversubscribed countries like India and China. There are a few remedies in congress right now... such as raising the overall limit to 290K from its present 140K (mccain-kennedy bill) and to raise the per-country cap to 10% (... that can be of some help seen in the context of 290K).

I cannot get my head around that 350K-pending-in-BEC number... and I am not sure how many of those folks are from EB1,2,3 and how many are from the "other worker" list and I dont know what the distribution of priority dates is.

Anybody wants to take a shot at an educated guess?


nashdel said:
..........Suppose I file my LC next month and Get a priority date. I have to wait for those 1 million people to clear up plus I have to give way to anyone who comes after me as long as he is not from India and China. for example, all people who come from nepal over next 8 years will supercede me as their PD is current.............
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Dependent GCs per primary applicant

I did some analysis on this using ....
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/2004/table5.xls
... as my source data.


EB1 had 2.36 GCs per primary
EB2 had 2.05 GCs per primary
EB3 had 2.08 GCs per primary

The distribution among EB1,2,3 was roughly 21% for EB1, 21% for EB2 and 58% for EB3

So weighting it by that much.. it works out to 2.13 GCs per primary employment-based immigrant.

I suggest ppl use this number in all future calculations.

Also, do us all a favor.... if you are planning on having a kid, have it in the "land of opportunity" to keep it that way :)... but if Nathan Deal has his way (H.R.698 in the 109th congress)... that wont help either :).
 
I don't understand how could india and china oversubscribe the visa. USCIS cannot approve a I485 unless there is a visa available to them. Does that mean: there are more pending I485s than visa numbers. Even if so, how could PD be rolled back that much? I mean the pending 485 are not going to be approved until PD is current, which means these 485s are going to wait as long as the 485 have not been filed.
 
Sorry for editing. Long time no math.

Infostarved, I do not know how you come up with all data and analysis but It sure needs lot of your time and brain. you sure seems to be very knowledgeable.

With information you provided I am trying doing calculation for EB2 for India who are going to have PD of 2005. (just selfish)

Total application in BEC 350K plus (I am just trusting murthy.com)

Out of this 21 percent will be EB2 which is about 70 thousand. (based on 2003 and 2004 data. Look on excel sheet at last posting)

Say Indians are 50 percent (little pessimistic,I have no data to support this): That means 35 K are Indians.

Each one has 2.05 family members that means 70K

Minimum number of EB 2 guaranteed per year per country 2800. At this rate it will take 70K/2800 = 25 years to get GC for 2005 PD.

However, there have been redistribution of visas from donor countries. Suppose that donated number is X. it will take 70K/ 2800+X = number of years to get PD 2005 GC.

This number X is difficult to guess. I am not sure how redistribution works but it will be different in future than past. ( Donor countries are shrinking, EB3 is backlogged worldwide and EB2/ EB1 quota will not spill over to EB3).

Anyway last year 38K visas were given to India after redistribution, majority going to EB3 (EB2 and EB1 were current). Whatever visas Indian get this year will not be skewed to EB3 ( if redistribution works equally it be 33 percent in each category). This also depends on how fast BEC clears backlog.

So first of all 38K is likely to shrink ( no more donor from EB3 worldwide and EB1 EB2 India/China).

Only donor left are EB1/EB2 worldwide + family based unused visa + Recapture of 100K from year 2000.

Let us just assume 38 K like last year. 33 percent will go to EB2 which is 12K (grossly). It means it will take 70K/12K = 6 years for 2005 PD. This is close to what PD dates are for EB2 (5 years backlog). Remember there may be duplicate labor and 50 percent indians is assumption only.

With this breakdown, I am not concerned about our friends coming on EB2 rest of world as they will have their own quota and does not concern me if they get superceded. If there are too many of them, donation will decrease but I do not expect backlog in EB2 Other countries.

This situation will improve and may cut down the time to less than half if McClain Kennedy bill is passed as such and 100 K is recaptured.
 
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