Retrogression: Doing Math part 2

Best gestimate I had seen so far

gcstrat said:
Any feedback?

Regards
GCStrat ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks much to all for working hard to arraive at an gestimate. My hats off to GCStrat, Akela and others in compiling this work sheet. My only hope is that USCIS works based on this prediction!

nlssubbu :)
 
Guestimate from gcstrat

gcstrat:

You don't seem to include H1-B people not subject to quota like me, who are also quite significant in numbers. This might change your analysis.

Thanks, anyways for your good analysis. Hope numbers are actually the way you saw them.
 
thats right I have only 1 lc, but I have been to India 3 times and gotten my GC renewed. I would imagine that takes the number down by a factor.
rgds,
 
Only one beneficiary per initial employment

Guys and Gals

Whether you are in quota or not, you are counted as ONE H-1B or L-1 beneficiary (as the case may be).

My 3-year extension gets counted under CONTINUING H-1B category and not in INITIAL EMPLOYMENT.

I am counted only once in INITIAL EMPLOYMENT and this is the base number on which my calculation starts.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
No Method to madness

Great job guys, but what routinely happens is that 2 people who have applied the same day or have their priority numbers back to back receive their GCs 2 or 3 years apart, in short there is no method to the madness that the GC process is.
So even though priority numbers go past your date and become current, doesn't mean that you will get yours?? :confused:
 
I got multiple H1s

gcstrat said:
Guys and Gals

Whether you are in quota or not, you are counted as ONE H-1B or L-1 beneficiary (as the case may be).

My 3-year extension gets counted under CONTINUING H-1B category and not in INITIAL EMPLOYMENT.

I am counted only once in INITIAL EMPLOYMENT and this is the base number on which my calculation starts.

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...

Hi GCStrat;

I had multiple H1B's twice in my carrer. One at the time when I tried to come to USA and another one when I was trying for another job. Though there may not be many people like me, it may reduce your backlog estimation to that extent :)

Thanks
nlssubbu
 
I have assumed 5% reduction for such cases

Hi,

I have already assumed a 5% reduction for multiple initial employment cases in my calculations. I do not think there are likely to more than 5%.

H-1B transfers are part of continuing H-1B and not initial employment and so are H-1B extensions.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
EB2 - India

Guys:
I see lot of Math genius coming up with different probabilities scenarios here. I am not sure anyone has already figured out the answer for this.

Do we have the list of EB2 category labor approvals broken down by month to predict/see the concentration. Like many of us know, there is a big concentration during Apr 2001 timeline. EB2 has passed that timeline (at least by Feb 06 and let's hope it does not go backwards..). My question is, if we know the break down of pending applications (waiting for PD to come) then can we predict the PD movement?

i.e.., If we know there are 20 cases from India for the month Sep 01 and only 2 cases for Oct 01 then we know, Oct date will move just like that. But if we know Feb 2002 has some unusual big number, say > 5000 then we know for sure the PD date is going to take a break in Feb 2002. Does it make any sense or am I being narrowly focusing?
 
Let me try

Hi,

Let me try to answer that:

If you look at my sheet, there are close to 45K pending Labor applications for 2000 and 2001. There are about 6K pending applications for 2002.

Since EB2 is at August 2001 i.e. close to the end of the 2001 immigration year, and EB3 is at January 2000 (with 8 months of 2000 immigration year still pending), my inference is that a significant majority of these pending labor cases are EB3.

Likewise, for 2002, there are about 6K cases. 2001, 2002 and 2003 were years when the economy was not doing well and a lot cases were filed under EB3 even if they qualified for EB2. This fact makes me believe, that the proportion of EB2 cases pending for 2002 is also very less. Even if we take the historical EB2 ratio of 29%, it works out to about 1,800 EB2 cases pending for Labor for entire 2002.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
gcstrat said:
Hi,

Let me try to answer that:

If you look at my sheet, there are close to 45K pending Labor applications for 2000 and 2001. There are about 6K pending applications for 2002.

Since EB2 is at August 2001 i.e. close to the end of the 2001 immigration year, and EB3 is at January 2000 (with 8 months of 2000 immigration year still pending), my inference is that a significant majority of these pending labor cases are EB3.

Likewise, for 2002, there are about 6K cases. 2001, 2002 and 2003 were years when the economy was not doing well and a lot cases were filed under EB3 even if they qualified for EB2. This fact makes me believe, that the proportion of EB2 cases pending for 2002 is also very less. Even if we take the historical EB2 ratio of 29%, it works out to about 1,800 EB2 cases pending for Labor for entire 2002.

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...

Ok.. that's very interesting analysis. So if this is correct, is it safe to assume the EB2 PD will move substantially this time by at least touching 2003 mark? I am sure that should open flood of applicants to file for 485 if this happens.

Why can't they release bulletin every 10 days, we will experience less pain waiting by seeing slow progress every 10 days :eek: :eek:
 
March 06 could be the turning point!

If worldwide eb3 becomes current as rumors are saying then it could all open up as 7% country limits would fall away.

there could be hope!

and USCIS said April 01 numbers are stuck at labor

am I right with this prediction?


check this out

http://www.immigration-law.com/
 
NYImmigrant said:
I wonder where they get their stats from. They have something like a prediction engine at http://www.immigrationwatch.com/immi_predict_form.jsp

Well ... as per that my case should have already been approved... :(
Click to expand...
Mine too. I seriously doubt their claims. The same number is been repeating many times and the status gets updated on Sundas etc., It looks like somebody has written a good logic in coming up with this numbers. How would DHS release these numbers to a commercial website like this?? I am sure these people are trying to add up some hits by this new marketing trick.
 
lateguy said:
Mine too. I seriously doubt their claims. The same number is been repeating many times and the status gets updated on Sundas etc., It looks like somebody has written a good logic in coming up with this numbers. How would DHS release these numbers to a commercial website like this?? I am sure these people are trying to add up some hits by this new marketing trick.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't discount the stats so easily. I already know many people with my PD already approved pre-retrogression. I don't think they are getting feed through USCIS though. The section where is says "Todays Approvals" is TOTALLY speculations it seems...
 
There is something not very clear about this website

Guys and Gals

I am always a little concerned about website which do not disclose who is behind it.

I have asked the same question to marlon2006 - how authentic the website it? His reply was that there are many people on their forums which must indicate that the website is authentic.

However, I do find their long term statistics as having some value. I think, their "todays approvals" basically means the data they got today.

But an interesting point to observe is that service centers are processing cases after their disclosed cut-off dates, which makes me think the cut off dates represent some weighted average number of some purely speculative number.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
My I-485 info found missing

I do not think this web site has all the statistics.

My I-485 is LIN0504450**** with a receipt date of 12/06/2004 is not even found in this web site. :mad: I also do not think that their calculation takes care of retrogression as well.

nlssubbu
 
I am sure its a money making portal. Way too many pop-ups in the site. I stoppped visiting that site.
 
Creating a new thread for immigrationwatch.com

Guys and Gals

Let us keep this thread for its original purpose - doing the math and comments on that.

I am creating a new thread for discussion on immigrationwatch.com website.

Please continue discussion relating to immigrationwatch.com in that thread and not on this one.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
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