Retrogression: Doing Math part 2

logically. meaningful analysis

Hi Friend

You made a logically meaningful analysis. What is your priority date in EB3? Mine is Nov2003.

EB3 PD: 11/2003
I-140 Approved: 05/2005
I-485 Filing Date ?????????????

kamrans said:
I dont understand why we are so much anxious about the visa numbers because of 245(i)cases.
Here is my analysis. Please let me know if I am wrong.

1) There is an estimate of 300,000 cases of 245(i) out of which it is estimated that 90% or more are mexicans which have their own quota. So around 30,000 Principal visa numbers will be needed except mexicans.
2) There were two options for the 245(i) applicants.. either they can go with the family based or the emplyment based. Family based is easy to apply rather than employment based as USCIS needs a lot of stuff for verification if someone is applying on employment basis. I would say fewer people applied for employment based.
3) I know personally some people who filed 245(i) and they approved way back and lot of them are still pending at the backlog centers. So there is no estimate how many dont need the visa numbers.
4) Based on the above facts I would say around 15,000 visa numbers would be needed for the employment based and they are further sub divided in India, China, Phillipines and all others.

This doesnt seem much to me. I would say that all others chargebility (in EB3) to which I belong to will become current in 2-3 months. India might take 4 months.

Please comment and let me know.
Click to expand...
 
My PD is July 2002, EB3, other chargebility and my 485 got approved in Feb 2005. At the same time my wife's 824 (follow to join) got approved as well. US embassy never contacted my wife and eventually I contacted them in march. Send the documents they are asking in May and got packet 3.5 in june. Sent all the documents back to them in August and then they say that the PD is not current so I have to wait till then.
See because of the ignorance of the US embassy I am suffering.

Hoping for the good for everybody and trying the best I can.
Good luck.



satyasaich said:
Hi Friend

You made a logically meaningful analysis. What is your priority date in EB3? Mine is Nov2003.

EB3 PD: 11/2003
I-140 Approved: 05/2005
I-485 Filing Date ?????????????
Click to expand...
 
Rir

My PD is April 2001, RIR, EB3, got approval of I-140 in 2nd of June, 2005 and still waiting for my I-485 approval, since I waited long and did not get any approvals, I filed second I-140 and I-485 and withdra after numerous calls to Service Center, and finally LUD changed for all Receipt numbers and now new and old I-140 & I-485 LUD dates are same. (which I understand that they cancelled my new I-140)

Vermont center asked for the Medical and was received in Sept. I do not know what happend about name check. RFE for medical was requested because they are ready for approval once the visa number is available? or still there are some more processing needed. Anybody has any idea. Because some one told me that since I did not submit my medicals with initial filings they requested it because my finger print and name check may be cleared. Pls help me. This waiting is very painfull. Sometimes I think my head will explode. Pls feed with anybody's thinking. Appreciate it.

Thanks and rgds
Rainu
 
Dear GCSTRAT,
Please continue your effort. Let me point out few things that you should use to further refine your model.

First a primer on my approach vs. your approach (and if we both are doing it right then we should reach the same ball park figure). I am taking into account what USCIS and BEC are saying how many applications they have. Now doing some mathematical modelling, I am coming with numbers that are country specific, criteria specific and trying to then guess how many (and Yes I am concentrating on Indians here) Indians are there ahead of someone.
My model has further room of refinement, as I change my ditribution, I get a different result, I am always on a look out for data that supports or negates my asssumption. If you take my assumptions as true, then the math is simple and the numbers are right. And I am thankful to manny people for these numbers, when I speak I speak from shoulders of other people (notably Infostarved, Breckleebee, EB2 KID etc.). They (and I) have been researching for the last 4-5 months and have come to some distributions. Please feel free to challenege the assumptions, as they make the model more perfect.

Your approach takes a different route, which is that you start with number of Indians that came here (against mine, I take my figure from USCIS and BEC and then try to estimate Indians in the line) and then try to figure how many are where. As such, it should also lead to the right number. This would hold true if all your calculations are right. Let me point out few things that does not match up.

For example your spread sheet 2004 H1-B L1 says that for all countries the total visa granted is 1320840, but we know H1B visa limit was 60,000. Agree that 1320840 inludes L1 visa , but that number is off by 20 times!!! I mean if it were off by say 30% or 40% it would be OK, but to use this number as a proxy for H1B or (and L1 as they also apply for GC, but I believe in E1 category and since India as well as China Category is moving so fast, it would be hard to say that these many visas were granted for L1, btw exchange visa is J1 and I have no clue to, if these guys can apply GC or not)
Moreover does this number include Spouse or Children of H1B.

If you can reconcile this number please let me know. I will point out few more things that we can refine later.

Thanks
 
Good maths

akela,

You are doing wonderful job. Based on my PD (EB2-India-May 2004), is there a possibility for the approval of my 485 from FY 2006 quota, ie before oct 2006?

Is my expectation too much? What will be your approximate guess, based on my PD?

Thanks
 
I have no clue dude. And please do not take them seriously (only I do coz I believe they are true), you are entitled to your optimism and happiness. I wish that your date become current before this year is out. Will they? No idea. I guess I will wait for two more visa avaibility dates to see what is going on? Since ROW in EB2 is current, that makes prediction even harder, we do not know haow many EB-2 ROW are being approved through PERM and being filed. That would be an interesting thing to find out.

rgds,
 
Inputs appreciated

Dear Akela

Thank you for the inputs - I will definitely look into them.

Also, I would like to point out that the persons admitted under H-1B and L-1 for all countries for 2004 is 701,305 (of which 386,821 were H-1B) and not 1,320,840 - this number if for people entering under all stated visa categories - J1, O1, O2, R1, etc.

However, You bring up a vaild point - if the H-1B cap in 2005 was 65,000+20,000 (additional for students doing masters, etc), why is USCIS listing 386,821 people admitted under H-1B. Even assuming overflow from previous years, this appears to be a high number.

I will try to research for that answer. Is it possible some countries such as Canada, Mexico, certain West European countries may not be counted under the H-1B limit cap ?.

USCIS also lists H-1B beneficiaries i.e. H-1B awarded in a particular year. The data for India for 2000 was 60757; 2001 was 161561 and 2002 was 64980. Unfortuantely, after 2003, after it came under Dept. of homeland security, that data has not been available (or maybe, I just could not find it). Let me check that data source and find out how many they list as H-1B beneficiaries for all countries for those years - may be we can get a clue.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
H-1B data is in column "D"l;L-1 in either column "I" some years and "J" others

Dear Akela and others

FYI - H-1B data is in column "D" of the relevant sheets "2004-H-1B-L-1", etc. whereas L-1 data is in Column "I" for 2004/ 2003 and Column "J" for other years.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
My data overestimates - plan to do with new base data

Guys and Gals

I stand corrected - on further research, I have found the data I based my analyses on contains "inflated" numbers. Below is the explanation of what is counted under "Admissions". Please JUNK my sheet - it is useless. Thank you Akela for making me think and research this.

I plan to redo my sheet with "H-1B beneficiary" information, using the same logic. Hopefully, now, our numbers will be much closer.

Regards
GCStrat :)

===============================================

"....Nonimmigrant admission counts are based on collection of
entry/exit forms (I-94) at the ports of entry.... Since nonimmigrant admissions data are collected for each arrival and an individual might enter more than once in a fiscal year (e.g., students), the count of admissions exceeds the number of individuals arriving. ..." (Source: USCIS 2003 year book)
 
Oops - forgot to add subaruyo's name

Thanks to subaruyo for first pointing out that possibility - of multiple entries.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Can we have an updated spread sheet?

First, my thanks to Akela, GCSTRAT and others for their excellent analysis and helpful statistics. I hope this will get better and better and may even able to predict the expected date in a better fashion. I am sure these analysis may be useful for the future aspirants as well.

It will be very helpful, if GCSTRAT can update your excel and circulate them again for after corrections for our reference.

Thanks again folks,
nlssubbu
 
Assuming Akela's numbers are correct.

Gcstart,
Let us do calculation other way, Asuming Akela's final numbers are correct.

we can do following maths:
Indian People in queue according to Akela:
Akela_cal = people in (I140 + I485 stage)*( %Indian) + (i245)*(%Indian)*(%Employment category) + (Non i245 people In labour backlog centers)*(%indian)

According to Gcstart
GcStart_cal = (Total people entered on H1B)*(% people stayed ) * (Average Foreign visits Number H1B holders)* (indian passport holders)

if we have all the factors correct:
Then we should have this calculation:(assuming akela underestimated i245 effect & whatever effects he used from i245 covers for his good intentioned optimism in other factors)

Akela_cal = GcStart_cal + (i245 effect on india )

Let us not involve EB categories for time being to keep it simple, as we know the ratios , so will be simple to derive any time.
 
Eb1

HI Akela/GC Strat

Thanks for your analysis. it is logical and based on lot of research. Since you have done it so well, would you want to make a prediction ( based on the xls calculation) on how current the EB1 Category for India could get by the next 3 months ( say May06 Visa bulletin) ?

Regards
 
PB904207...this looks like your case number..

according to my calculation....you will see a good movement in
EB1-india/china....

its very difficult to give exact date but my guess is that PD will move between dec 2004-feb 2005, by may 2006 (unless it keeps the same pace, 7 months each month....in which case it will become current...which is not possible according to my estimate.
 
Updated calc - 145K principals; 302K with dependents

Guys and Gals

Here is my updated sheet.

The basis this time is the H-1B beneficiares approved by USCIS. I have focused only on INITIAL EMPLOYMENT data from USCIS. Unfortunately, this data is available till 2003. For 2004, 2005, I have made the following assumptions - Historically, USCIS approved about 95% of all H-1B application filed. since we know for the past 2 years, the H-1B limit reaches a cap, I have assumed USCIS approved 95% of that cap.

Some interesting observations can be made from the data - in 2002 / 2003, when the H-1B limit was 195,000, USCIS approved only about 103K and 105K respectively, mainly because it received only about 110K-115K applications. Economic downturn in USA ensured the H-1B limit was not reached at all.

Also, the data for India, while, it is true that for 2000/ 2001, nearly 45% of all H-1B visas were issued to Indians, the numbers drops sharply to 20% in 2002 and slightly higher to 27% in 2003. I have assumed 25% of 2004/ 2005 H-1B approved would be to Indians.

Further, I have discounted the India H-1B numbers by 5% to account for multiple INITIAL H-1B filed. There are many cases of H-1B transfers but they are accounted for in CONTINUING H-1B count. I know of very few cases of multiple INITIAL H-1B filings, which is why I assumed only 5% as the likely figure.

Based on this, 230K Indians received H-1B visas betwen 2000 and 2005.
I have assumed for every 4 H-1B person, there is only L-1 person. This is just an assumption and based on your inputs, I am willingly to revise this. The 25% number roughly mirrors the H-1B/L-1 ratio during admittance (which we know is based on I-94 data). This gives us 57K L-1 persons between 2000 and 2005.

Now, I have assumed that 10% of all H-1B/ L-1 people returned by home. i.e. about 53K principals + dependents returned back to India.

Based on 161K LPRs approved, we get a backlog number of 302K principals with dependents or about 145K only principals.

Approval ratio of EB1:EB2:EB3 has been 19.5 : 22.4 : 53.6.

IF we apply this ratio to backlog, we will get about 78K principals only backlogged under EB3 and 32K under EB2.

However, according to Akela's post, EB-1 do not require labor and are likely to backlogged in BECs. So, if use the EB2:EB3 ratio of 29 : 71, then we will get the following numbers: 103K principals backlogged under EB3 and 42K under EB2. Apply a factor of 2.07 to include dependents.

If you see some obvious flaws, let me know.

DATA SOURCE is the USCIS/ Flowsheetlegalpermanentresidents.pdf located in USCIS statistics home page.

Regards
GCStrat

Enclosed: EXcel document - gccalc-v2
 
Looks Good

It looks much better now. I think You and Akela need to make a prioprity
date projections for next year on quarterly/monthly basis ...and then we should
try to finetune the guesses to see, If You guys can still be in ballpark with
reasonable assumption.

Make no mistake both models have still lot of assumptions.

Great work guys and hope for best this year.May be one of you guys accept
part time job from USCIS & give them proper mathematical model with real numbers.
:)
 
kamrans said:
My PD is July 2002, EB3, other chargebility and my 485 got approved in Feb 2005. At the same time my wife's 824 (follow to join) got approved as well. US embassy never contacted my wife and eventually I contacted them in march. Send the documents they are asking in May and got packet 3.5 in june. Sent all the documents back to them in August and then they say that the PD is not current so I have to wait till then.
See because of the ignorance of the US embassy I am suffering.

Hoping for the good for everybody and trying the best I can.
Good luck.
Click to expand...
What are all the ocuments needed for FTJ ?
 
EB3 Retrogression in Rest of the world!

I would appreciate it too if one of you GURU'S could predict the Eb3 dates progression in EB3 for ROW. I am so mathematically challenged........
kamrans said:
Can anyone of you predict the advancement in worldwide EB3 category for this year.

Thanks a lot.
Click to expand...
 
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