Some interesting Number and facts---
I am Indian, EB-2, mid 2002. So, I am doing calculation fronm that point of view.
But these numbers are universal asnyone can use them.
I have one very important queston (and believe me the right answer to that question would
detrmine how soon you will get GC if the current law prevails which is increasingly looking likely)
There are two source of GC seaker in front of you, people who are already filed 485 or 140 (i.e. they are post LC certified state)
and are waiting to be processed and people who have filed GC and yet not reached 485 state, i.e. people who filed
before you and are stuck in BEC. (All these data is from September). If I have missed any other source of
employment based GC seaker, please let me know.
The people in waiting for GC in post LC certified state are 73K. Please see reference 1 below.
The factor for consuming green card per applicant is 2.13. Please see reference2 below.
To know how many ppl in the backlog (or still in BEC and Perm stages) are ahead of you, use this chart. People before mid 2002 are 20% of all backlog. See reference 3
The distribution for EB1, EB2 and EB3 has been historically 20%, 20% and 60% respectively. Since EB1 do not file labor, EB2 and EB3 distribution in backlog is 29% and 71% respectively See reference 4. Reference of the last figure is in the same thread somewhere in Doing the math thread.
The number of Indians who got GC in 2001,2,3,4 (when no retrogression has been around 25%.). That should be the distribution in that pending 485 at USCIS. In baclog that % might be high as more Indians (as compared to other nationalities) came. Unless there is a better evidence on how many ppl are of Indian origin at the backlog center I would use the 25% (I agree thats optimistic). See refernce 5.
There are allegedly 350 K LC application in BEC. Murthy.com says 250 of them are April 30, 2001 application. I tend to believe 25% are. Lets be bold and say 100k are 245 i. See refernce 3.
There are two threads to look out for numbers. One is Retrogression: Doing the Math
and second is Why Rest Of World EB-1 and EB-2 should be safe for visa number availability .
Now to predict how long will it take, here are my calculations. (Why I am presenting this, I want people to say where I am going wrong and second I have few questions of my own).
I am going to assume all of 73K ppl in 485 pending are ahead of July 2002 (a small % might not be). 20% of them are eb2 and out that 25% are Indian.
Total Indians ahead of an EB-2 July 2002 person = 3650 Indian ahead
Out of Backlog, say removing 245 i applicants, the number backlogged are 150k as of Sept 2004 (where are the some 500K ppl who came on H1B from 2001 to 2004)
If you see distribution 20% of these applicantswere before july 20002, 29% of which are EB-2 and further only 25% Indian (could be higher, but thats the recent past trend), the number of Indian ahead = 2523
So total Indians in EB-2 ahead of an July 2002 applicant is 6200 approx.
It takes 2.05 GC per person total GC required = 12700
Now comes the millon dollar question. That will determine how fast we reach there. If the unused GC in EB-2 (or EB-1) are left unused by rest of the word by the end of year, where does those GC go, to the oversubscribe countries in the same category (EB-2, which would be India or China) in the last quater or it goes to EB-3 and then satisfies ROW. It seams the relevant law code is 8USC 1152(a)(5)(A). I could not find anything. If the answer to the question is Yes, EB-2 Indian and Chinese get them first, then all of EB1,2 and 3 China folks benefit (For EB-3 Indian or Chinese, it clears backlog of EB-1 and EB-2 Indians/chines ahead of them faster, so there que moves faster).
Per year (with 140,000 limit, the limit is at least these many, can be more), with 7.1% and 27% per category limit means, there are only 2684 application. it will take close to 5 years for that person, to get GC. But if EB-2 GC spill to oversubscribe coutries, I would imagine, that 2002 july person can apply by the end of this Fiscal year or at the most next.
Any news on AC21 GC left unused, how many of them are there and can/are they being applied towards GC this year.
Thanks,
a
I am Indian, EB-2, mid 2002. So, I am doing calculation fronm that point of view.
But these numbers are universal asnyone can use them.
I have one very important queston (and believe me the right answer to that question would
detrmine how soon you will get GC if the current law prevails which is increasingly looking likely)
There are two source of GC seaker in front of you, people who are already filed 485 or 140 (i.e. they are post LC certified state)
and are waiting to be processed and people who have filed GC and yet not reached 485 state, i.e. people who filed
before you and are stuck in BEC. (All these data is from September). If I have missed any other source of
employment based GC seaker, please let me know.
The people in waiting for GC in post LC certified state are 73K. Please see reference 1 below.
The factor for consuming green card per applicant is 2.13. Please see reference2 below.
To know how many ppl in the backlog (or still in BEC and Perm stages) are ahead of you, use this chart. People before mid 2002 are 20% of all backlog. See reference 3
The distribution for EB1, EB2 and EB3 has been historically 20%, 20% and 60% respectively. Since EB1 do not file labor, EB2 and EB3 distribution in backlog is 29% and 71% respectively See reference 4. Reference of the last figure is in the same thread somewhere in Doing the math thread.
The number of Indians who got GC in 2001,2,3,4 (when no retrogression has been around 25%.). That should be the distribution in that pending 485 at USCIS. In baclog that % might be high as more Indians (as compared to other nationalities) came. Unless there is a better evidence on how many ppl are of Indian origin at the backlog center I would use the 25% (I agree thats optimistic). See refernce 5.
There are allegedly 350 K LC application in BEC. Murthy.com says 250 of them are April 30, 2001 application. I tend to believe 25% are. Lets be bold and say 100k are 245 i. See refernce 3.
There are two threads to look out for numbers. One is Retrogression: Doing the Math
and second is Why Rest Of World EB-1 and EB-2 should be safe for visa number availability .
Now to predict how long will it take, here are my calculations. (Why I am presenting this, I want people to say where I am going wrong and second I have few questions of my own).
I am going to assume all of 73K ppl in 485 pending are ahead of July 2002 (a small % might not be). 20% of them are eb2 and out that 25% are Indian.
Total Indians ahead of an EB-2 July 2002 person = 3650 Indian ahead
Out of Backlog, say removing 245 i applicants, the number backlogged are 150k as of Sept 2004 (where are the some 500K ppl who came on H1B from 2001 to 2004)
If you see distribution 20% of these applicantswere before july 20002, 29% of which are EB-2 and further only 25% Indian (could be higher, but thats the recent past trend), the number of Indian ahead = 2523
So total Indians in EB-2 ahead of an July 2002 applicant is 6200 approx.
It takes 2.05 GC per person total GC required = 12700
Now comes the millon dollar question. That will determine how fast we reach there. If the unused GC in EB-2 (or EB-1) are left unused by rest of the word by the end of year, where does those GC go, to the oversubscribe countries in the same category (EB-2, which would be India or China) in the last quater or it goes to EB-3 and then satisfies ROW. It seams the relevant law code is 8USC 1152(a)(5)(A). I could not find anything. If the answer to the question is Yes, EB-2 Indian and Chinese get them first, then all of EB1,2 and 3 China folks benefit (For EB-3 Indian or Chinese, it clears backlog of EB-1 and EB-2 Indians/chines ahead of them faster, so there que moves faster).
Per year (with 140,000 limit, the limit is at least these many, can be more), with 7.1% and 27% per category limit means, there are only 2684 application. it will take close to 5 years for that person, to get GC. But if EB-2 GC spill to oversubscribe coutries, I would imagine, that 2002 july person can apply by the end of this Fiscal year or at the most next.
Any news on AC21 GC left unused, how many of them are there and can/are they being applied towards GC this year.
Thanks,
a
... but if Nathan Deal has his way (H.R.698 in the 109th congress)... that wont help either