Retrogression: Doing Math part 2

Forecasting challenges

Guys and Gals

This exercise of predicting dates (especially on all country basis) is turning out to be a lot more data intensive and requiring many many assumptions to fill in data gaps. This is making me very uncomfortable - the less assumptions and more facts we have, better we are in a position to infer something.

Conceptually, my approach is similar to the way Akela went about predicting likely dates - in the sense, we will have to try and get a handle on Service Centers adjudicating approach and what happens in BEC. The differences are likely to be in base numbers we are starting off with, and some factors (such as EB3 to EB2 change-overs, mutliple applications, FB to EB flowover) and some other details. But the broad "framework" which I have come up with is similar to Akela's.


One case in point about complexities involved: China's H-1B beneficiaries

One thing I did notice was China's H-1B beneficiaries number. They have been sending less than 60% of what India has been sending but they are still retrogressed with India (EB2/EB1).

This fact makes me think the flow over from Family based (FB) to Employment based (EB) each year is a HUGE variable - it appears India is getting more of FB to EB flow-overs than China. Or me, there is some other factor.

So, you see, this further complicates the modeling process.


I will keep trying for some more time but I do not know what I will get finally.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
gcstrat said:
This fact makes me think the flow over from Family based (FB) to Employment based (EB) each year is a HUGE variable - it appears India is getting more of FB to EB flow-overs than China. Or me, there is some other factor.

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...

GCStrat, the Family-Based quota is retrogressed as well. So why should there be any flow over from Family-Based to Employment-Based?
 
I really appreciate the efforts of gcstart and akela and the other people who are working on improving this model.
Thanks a lot and hats off for you SIR. I would highly appreciate it if you can find some estimate of the ROW EB3 priority date.


Charlotte person:
You need to have the approved petition I-824 for follow to join. In some cases like embassies in india they dont need approved petition and instead the I-824 receipt notice will work. The embassy requires some other docs as well like marriage certificate, birth certificate etc but 824 is the main document. Let me know if you need any further detais.
 
Good analysis

But do you think our friends at USCIS and DOS follow the laws to the letter? When there was no retrogression, they were just randomly approving cases. Then they would just wake up and tab on their foreheads and set up PD dates. By the way they calculate backlog, we should think that they do not have data to backup the retrogression. Just an arbitrary date. Thanks.

gcstrat said:
Guys and Gals


One case in point about complexities involved: China's H-1B beneficiaries

One thing I did notice was China's H-1B beneficiaries number. They have been sending less than 60% of what India has been sending but they are still retrogressed with India (EB2/EB1).

This fact makes me think the flow over from Family based (FB) to Employment based (EB) each year is a HUGE variable - it appears India is getting more of FB to EB flow-overs than China. Or me, there is some other factor.

So, you see, this further complicates the modeling process.


I will keep trying for some more time but I do not know what I will get finally.

Regards
GCStrat :)
Click to expand...
 
Good points

Good points

FB is also retrogressed - there should be no overflow. Therefore all overflows are from EB only.
And good question - Does USCIS follow the letter of the law? I do not know.
But, in our model, we will have to assume they do. However, we do not know how they handle the "over-flow".

Got to think what is happening at Service Centers!

Regards,

GCStrat ;)
 
Hold on guys,

1. The USCIS follows the law to the letter (they better, in US no one is above law). In fact my calculations from past and past facts show that they do follow all the law.

2.The is over flow from family based GC. The overflow depends on how many were granted the last year, if the quota was say x and they could only grant x-10,000, 10,000 GC flow to EB in next fiscal. The point to understand is that, due to inefficiency, not all visas were granted (and not that there was no demand for it). The usused flows to EB (I might be wrong on this though, please check the relevant law)

3. Bottom line, GCStrat, still you show a huge number of Indians in the pipeline. Where are they, BEC says they have 370,000 LC waiting (of which 225,000) are 245 i (all data from this thread). 750,000 GC's are waiting in USCIS but they are mixture of both employment and family (and out of total quota of a million GC, only 140,000 are employment based i.e. 14%, rest is family based). However you do the math (i.e. Infostarved did a very good modelling and I believe his numbers are correct), total cannot be more than 100,000 (73k according to Infostarved math). These people already have spouse and children applied. So total people in line, all of world as of Sept 2005 (and discarding PERM filing)= 50,000 + 150,000 = 200,000.

Now you are getting these many Indians only, so something is off by multiples. I do not know which side of th equation it is.

Predicting EB-3 should be easy (compared to EB2/EB1). sINCE eb-3, NO perm APPROVED LABOR IS BEING approved you just have to figure the distribution by date, by country and voila you know how much it will move. EB-2/EB-1 cannot be predicted as the GC numbers are being eaten by people who are getting there LC done through PERM. You do not know what is the overflow to the oversubscribed countries each quarter.

rgds,
 
Comments

Dear Akela

I am with you on this. I haven't downloaded FB data but I trust you and I buy your argument - unused FB numbers (due to USCIS stupidity) would flow/ have flown to EB.

May be doing this "over-flow" analyses may further streamline my calculations.

I know we are off 73K v/s 302K. I am purposely not looking at Infostarved's analyses - I want to build my model from bottom up and them reconcile with your's and his analyses.

One question - did anyone other than you and infostarved did any analyses? I would be scared to think only 3 of us have attempted this. Were they near your numbers or way off?


Regards
GCStrat :)
 
Not this analysis, but bekleybee did some analysis and then removed it (according to him it used wrong data and assumptions). eb2kid also did some analysis. I do not know of any1 else.

Thanks
 
One other figure I got from going to Murthy and soem other websites. Of all GC applied between April 2001 and May 2002, a good 40% have gotten there LC approved long back. I was jsut focusing on my date.

So to summarise here are the assumptions once again.

1.) 73K of 750 K of GC in USCIS are EB GC (and these do not have to be multiplied by 2.13 as at this stage everyone has applied)
1b)The distribution for EB1:EB2:EB3 is 20:20:60
2. )300K - 370K LC are at BEC, the number of 245i filling varies from 150k to 225 K
3.) 25% of all ppl in line for GC are Indian(historically, which is as recent as 2004, and this number has been very consistent through out)
4.) 29% of all LC in BEC are EB-2, 71% EB3
5.) There are no 245i in EB-1 or EB-2
6)Of all Candidates in BEC full 16-18% are before may 2002 (after april 2001)
7)Of all the application in the above period, 40% had already been approved (by sept 2005)

thanks
 
73K v/s 302K

Dear Akela

Our numbers are bound to be different:

Your 73K number is for people waiting for I-485 adjudication. My 302K number is for people waiting all stages, Labor, I-140 approval and I-140 approved but cannot file I-485 and waiting for I-485 adjudication.

Also, personally I think 73K is probably understating actual numbers. Remember, there are 890K I-485 pending with USCIS as of September 2005. This number is close to average LPRs issued for all categories all countries for the 2002-2004 period. During those period, roughly 155K EB based LPRs were issued.

I am going to break my numbers into likely numbers at various stages - Labor, I-140 approval and I-140 approved but cannot file I-485 and people waiting for I-184 adjudication.

Regards
GCStrat
 
Useful analysis

GCStrat,
Well done, I think this analysis of all people waiting at different stages would give a more clear picture of how all EB categories would be moving in future.
gcstrat said:
Dear Akela

Our numbers are bound to be different:

Your 73K number is for people waiting for I-485 adjudication. My 302K number is for people waiting all stages, Labor, I-140 approval and I-140 approved but cannot file I-485 and waiting for I-485 adjudication.

Also, personally I think 73K is probably understating actual numbers. Remember, there are 890K I-485 pending with USCIS as of September 2005. This number is close to average LPRs issued for all categories all countries for the 2002-2004 period. During those period, roughly 155K EB based LPRs were issued.

I am going to break my numbers into likely numbers at various stages - Labor, I-140 approval and I-140 approved but cannot file I-485 and people waiting for I-184 adjudication.

Regards
GCStrat
Click to expand...
 
Immigration-law reports 47K EB LPRs granted to Indians in 2005

GUYS and GALS

FYI __

Regards
GCStrat :)
===============================================

01/25/2006: Top 10 Countries That Sent EB-Immigrants to the U.S. in FY 2005 by Category

The State Department has just released a report of immigrant visas and I-485 granted in FY 2005 by country and by immigrant category. We are reporting the following 10 countries in EB immigration categories to learn where each of EB category immigrants came from. This 10-country summary may indicate which coutries have more stakes in each of EB visa categories (EB-1, EB-2, EB-3, EB-EW) in the comprehensive immigration reform.

EB-1 EB-2 EB-3 EB3EW Pref. Total CommentFocus (EB)

India 6,336 16,687 23,250 149 47,160 3 & 2
China 6,422 9,346 4,761 237 20,928 2 & 1
Mexico 2,932 368 11,844 788 16,676 3

Korea 3,427 1,405 8,316 915 16,167 3 & 1
Phil 777 979 2,911 41 12,723 3
Canada 5,756 1,643 4,544 13 12,329 1 & 3
U.K. 7,204 883 2,636 22 10,946 1
Brazil 1,883 329 6,227 356 9,145 3
Colombia 2,408 339 2,929 140 6,049 3 & 1
Venezuela 3,027 231 1,594 41 4,974 EB-1
 
PD Sept 2002

Going by your Math, when can you expect that the PD will will reach Sept 2002 for EB3 ? Any intelligent guesses - appreciated.

Thanks.
 
Good News

01/26/2005: Good News for Visa Movement

AILA has reported the DOS advised AILA that "thanks? to" the decrease in demand for EB visa numbers from USCIS I-485 cases and 245(i) labor cases still being held in the Department of Labor, the visa number would progress forward as follows:
Worldwide EB-1 and EB-2: There will be no cut-off date for the these categories.
Worldwide EB-3: Unlike the DOS previous prediction that the large number of 245(i) filings would be filed during March and April 2001 and it would result in a surge of EB-3 number demand and would limit movement of the cut-off date, 245(i) cases still remain at the DOL and therefore there will be movement in EB-3 visa numbers.
India EB-1 and EB-2: It will continue a rapid movement for the next several months.
India EB-3: It will move ahead but may become limited down the road.
China EB-1 and EB-2: It will continue a rapid movement for the next several months.
China EB-3: It will stay at the Worldwide date.
What a good news!
 
I am updating numbers

Guys and Gals

I updated the FY 2005 LPR numbers in my sheet. This brings down the backlog to 255K (principals + dependents).

I am working to break-it down. There are jsut too many iterations and I do not have Solver or other similar optimization tool. Working with basic EXCEL.

Hopefully, ny number for people waiting for I-485 adjudication, will be comparable to Akela's.

Regards
GCStrat :)
 
New backlog estimates: 84K in LC; 39K in I-140/I-485 (principals only - India only)

Guys and Gals

Updated analyses (focused on India):

This is what I did - to breakdown the 255K backlog number in various stages, I did an iterative calculation to estimate the likely cases which have their LABOR APPROVED, thereby giving us the backlog in Labor. This was a manual iterative calculation - i just wish I could some how used some optimization tool. However, one solution is the following and what I have represented in my XL sheet.

For 2000, 2001 and 2002, 75% of all those who applied for Labor have their cases adjudicated and approved.
For 2003 and 2004, however, the number is lower at 55% i.e. 55% of all those who applied for Labor have their cases adjudicated and approved.
For 2005, the number is relatively higher at 70% mainly due to PERM processing.

This gives us over 202K cases approved for labor between 2000 and 2005 i.e. effectively over 70% of all cases filed for Labor have been approved.

This also gives us nearly 85K cases pending for labor approval. Is it high or it is low???

Now we have had 203K EB LPR approved in the same period. I removed 19.4% of those application as realted to EB-1. Leaving us with 164K EB2/EB3 cases only. Taking the dependent factor of 2.07, this gives us 79K principal or applications.

Subtracting this from the 202K Labor apporved cases, we get a balance of 123K cases stuck in labor, I-140 and I-485 stages.

But, we know about 85K are stuck in labor (based on iterative calculation), giving us 39K cases (principals only) stuck in I-140/I-485 stage. Or about 80K with dependents.

I am stopping my calculations at this stage. Breaking down I-140/ I-485 is becoming a calculation and assumption nightmare.

I know that this calculation is based on the original iterative calculation - there could be other solutions also.

Let me know you thoughts.

Regards,
GCStrat
 
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