Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005

Appan,
Neither of the web sites are saying anything about EB3 moving forward so I would just wait/watch and pray. Logically, if Nurses go through different
quota then EB3(Skilled) should move forward...But you know...that's the one place where logic does not exist.
 
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Hello appan,

Are you saying "will not help EB3 PD move foward" ,because they(USICS) said they will be publishing dates for schedule A cases seperately.
So doesnt that mean EB3 is not affected and may move foward?

Subhash
 
for2003 said:
Hello appan,

Are you saying "will not help EB3 PD move foward" ,because they(USICS) said they will be publishing dates for schedule A cases seperately.
So doesnt that mean EB3 is not affected and may move foward?

Subhash
Click to expand...

YES... IF any visa left there in the FY 2005 then PD will move forward
 
http://www.murthy.com/chatlogs/ch051605_P.html

Chat User : Will the EB3 skilled worker category further retrogress? My labor was filed in April 2003 and in BEC Texas. What are the chances of my GC approval? I am in my 7th-year H1B.

Attorney Murthy : The additional 50,000 numbers that will go towards the nurse and physical therapists under the law signed by President Bush on or about May 11, 2005, should help to reduce the EB3 backlogs since nurses and physical therapists were also using up the EB3 quota from the countries suffering the retrogressions like India, the Philippines, and mainland China. On the other hand, even EB2 and possibly EB1 may also retrogress, as we mentioned in the MurthyBulletin article about a week or two ago. This was confirmed today in an eMail by Charles Oppenheim, the person in charge of the visa numbers at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., to an attorney at our office.
 
http://www.murthy.com/chatlogs/ch050905_P.html

Chat User : Can we conclude that there is absolutely no relief to EB3 retrogression in the recently passed Bill 1268?

Attorney Murthy : The original draft version, until the afternoon, showed that it would be divided equally between the nurses and all others. Then the final version only protected nurses and physical therapists and left out everyone else. Many people are understandably upset with this allocation, but measures such as this never make anyone happy in the long run since these are band-aid solutions to a difficult and complex problem.
 
well hopefully...the PD's for EB3 categories will move a little bit forward....


appan said:
http://www.murthy.com/chatlogs/ch051605_P.html

Chat User : Will the EB3 skilled worker category further retrogress? My labor was filed in April 2003 and in BEC Texas. What are the chances of my GC approval? I am in my 7th-year H1B.

Attorney Murthy : The additional 50,000 numbers that will go towards the nurse and physical therapists under the law signed by President Bush on or about May 11, 2005, should help to reduce the EB3 backlogs since nurses and physical therapists were also using up the EB3 quota from the countries suffering the retrogressions like India, the Philippines, and mainland China. On the other hand, even EB2 and possibly EB1 may also retrogress, as we mentioned in the MurthyBulletin article about a week or two ago. This was confirmed today in an eMail by Charles Oppenheim, the person in charge of the visa numbers at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., to an attorney at our office.
Click to expand...
 
Why are there so many EB skilled cases pending from 2002, is it because of the delay in the LC process in processing them?
What happened to the 101K visa numbers available from 1999-2000 AC21 amendment for the final quarter of FY2005? Was it used at all from the start of this year or when are they planning to use it. It doesn't make any sense from the June bulletin on their predictions.
 
rrajendr said:
Why are there so many EB skilled cases pending from 2002, is it because of the delay in the LC process in processing them?
What happened to the 101K visa numbers available from 1999-2000 AC21 amendment for the final quarter of FY2005? Was it used at all from the start of this year or when are they planning to use it. It doesn't make any sense from the June bulletin on their predictions.
Click to expand...

Actually the USCIS are processing AOS(adjustment of status) that were filed before Jan. 1, 2005. So even these cases were filed around December 2004 they would still be processed because they met the deadline. These I-485 cases are the ones eating more than 90% of the Employment Base visas. Making consular cases processing ZERO.

The AC21 101k visas can only be used ACCORDING TO THE LAW once the numerical limit has been reached. In that case the AC21 will be used at the last quarter of FY 2005 which would start at July 1, 2005. So there are many people expecting to see the July Visa Bulletin which will be published around mid June. The problem is that DOS continues to PREDICT or JUST ESTIMATE that the demand of USCIS from AOS cases would continue to grow. They are eliminating BACKLOG cases in AOS.

There would be a minimum or more than 134,600 Employment Based visas for use in the last quarter.

I arrive at this computation based on if the THREE 27% of 140,000 were used at the first three quarters 140,000times27%=37,800... 37,800 times three quarters if they were fully consumed as claimed by DOS=113,400. What would be left is 19% of 140,000 or 26,600 visas.

26,600+7,000(family based)+101,000(AC21)=134,600...

Another good thing is that Schedule A would be moving out of EB3. DOS will be allowed to use 134,000(or more) starting July 1, 2005 up to September 30, 2005. The main question is that would EB3 consular applicants have the chance to take a share of these visas?

DALE...
 
Dale,

Then we will see a forward PD movement from jul 05 to sept 05 bulletin.After sept 05 we will not see not see much pd movement ?
 
Forward movement in EB3 in July 2005

appan said:
Dale,

Then we will see a forward PD movement from jul 05 to sept 05 bulletin.After sept 05 we will not see not see much pd movement ?
Click to expand...

Yes according to the law "all the unused visas will be given to countries that met their numerical cap. In this case all unused visas will be given to the PIC countries. I think you should check on the I-485 trackers to see what dates the CIS are processing because if all the USCIS Service Centers have reached the December 2004 AOS dates it simply means that the backlog for AOS has been cleared and the consular applicants can take share of the visas.

By logical analysis visa numbers for these months are plenty so EB3 should have a forward movement. But on the DEMAND ESTIMATES by DOS they say that EB numbers will be retrogressing more. I really don't see why unless they have proven that there are many applicants adjusting for status. I can't see any statistics as of these present dates so that i can compute the demand estimates for the final quarter. It is like they are withholding information on these matters.

The sad part is that starting on October 1, 2005 the DOS can only allocate 27% of 140,000 and that would be only 37,800 that is why they are predicting that even EB2 and EB1 are going to be retrogressed. Unless a new law has been passed, retrogression will always be here.
 
Dale,
The CIS can process the immigrant visa subjected to the condition if the pd < Jun 02 .This applies to AOS or CP. i heard some case I485 is approved by CIS has not issued any immigrant visa becoz the pd is not current
 
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still_dale
Not very clear on what you are saying-
Are you saying cases having P.D. before June '02 AND filing of 485 before Jan '05 are holding up CP cases and eating up 90%?
OR
Are you saying any case file filed for AOS before Jan '05 is holding up CP?
The former makes sense. The latter is not consistent with what I understand - any case whether it be AOS/CP would be now in a common waiting line - sorted by the P.D. Even if the USCIS processes these cases, as Appan pointed out, they cannot be issued a visa number by the visa office - so why would they encroach on the C.P visa availability? Please explain
Thanks
Sandeep
 
Sandeep_N said:
still_dale
Not very clear on what you are saying-
Are you saying cases having P.D. before June '02 AND filing of 485 before Jan '05 are holding up CP cases and eating up 90%?
OR
Are you saying any case file filed for AOS before Jan '05 is holding up CP?
The former makes sense. The latter is not consistent with what I understand - any case whether it be AOS/CP would be now in a common waiting line - sorted by the P.D. Even if the USCIS processes these cases, as Appan pointed out, they cannot be issued a visa number by the visa office - so why would they encroach on the C.P visa availability? Please explain
Thanks
Sandeep
Click to expand...

Sandeep:

Cases having PD before June '02 and I-485 cases filed before Jan 2005 are eating EB immigrant visas. As i understand it, once your I-485 is APPROVED by USCIS YOU GET A VISA NUMBER ALREADY from NVC. That is why the DOS in their statements said that because of the backlog reduction efforts of the USCIS especially AOS, 90% of the visas are consumed by the USCIS.

There are no records that shows how many people are adjusting status. DOS just keeps on saying that there are thousands and thousands who were going for AOS. I am not sure if I-485 or AOS applicants would fall in line for visas like CP for priority dates. AOS simply means when it is approved by USCIS...your status is Permanent Resident and you consume a visa number already...

DALE
 
US Embassy in Manila Interview Schedule MNL2005XXXXXX

If you would check the U.S. Embassy Manila:
http://manila.usembassy.gov/wwwfvisa.pdf

you can see that they have posted dates with case numbers for EB3 MNL2005XXXXXX. It means that there are interview schedules for cases the NVC received from USCIS on 2005.

When a Consular Processing case has been approved by the USCIS, it is sent to the NVC. NVC in return assigns a case number in which the date it was received. So for example case number MNL2005XXXXXXX was assigned to a particular person. It means that they have received an approved case on 2005.

Dale
 
still_dale said:
If you would check the U.S. Embassy Manila:
http://manila.usembassy.gov/wwwfvisa.pdf

you can see that they have posted dates with case numbers for EB3 MNL2005XXXXXX. It means that there are interview schedules for cases the NVC received from USCIS on 2005.

When a Consular Processing case has been approved by the USCIS, it is sent to the NVC. NVC in return assigns a case number in which the date it was received. So for example case number MNL2005XXXXXXX was assigned to a particular person. It means that they have received an approved case on 2005.

Dale
Click to expand...

Dale, but the pd mentioned in the above case is < june 2002.
 
Guys,
i have been passively following the forum / thread about the Fy05 last quarter predictions and FY06 predictions.
there is a lot of analysis and also predictions. If we all understand the law correctly i think we can all agree that the fourth quarter MUST have a lot of visa numbers available to make the situation better.
But the problem with DOS is instead of actual usage against availabe numbers they are introducing a new parameter which is ESTIMATES of Demand for the upcoming months from USCIS.
Till last month this whole new concept was unheard of, now they are speaking about it.
My only thinking why they are doing this is, if we go by the rules/books then the PDs must "significantly" move forward or even become current in the last quarter of FY05 and then probably remain the same way first quarter of FY06 because of the fresh cycle for the fiscal year and then start to retrogress either in the second month or the third month of first quarter dependning upon demand.
But what does this going to make the DOS look to public and immigration community, PDs moving back and forth and this could go on for a while pretty much every year unless a legislation is passed.

So my guess instead of doing the back and forth which only will create MORE and MORE rush into USCIS as the applicants are going to flood AOS applications to get EAD cards because of this they are deciding to base the PDs on ESTIMATES FROM USCIS, there is no real LAW that actually requires them to do the same.

This is my understanding , im welcome to be critiqued
please throw your views.

thanks
/S
 
Sada,
Apart from the image point of view, there is a question of practicality. Let us say that the P.D. moves significantly due to the availability of the "extra" visas like the yo-yo effect that you describe. That means both the USCIS and the Consulates have their hands very much full in July if they are to meet every eligible case. But their staff remains more or less the same. The result? Like last years unutilized visas. Hence I guess the estimates are the only way out. However, this is a bit weird - on the one hand have a law which dictates the visa numbers on a per quarter basis and on the other, have the P.D. movement governed by some kind of estimate which by all means seems rather trial and error.
Sandeep
 
Sandeep,
I don't think there are so many pending cases in the consulates(may be some 100 applications).People who filed for I485 can applied can apply for EAD .
 
its less cases in consulate but the AOS rush might be significant as all those poeple who have not been able to file for 485 will do it asap
actually with the PD situation i think the CP route takers will almost become non existent

/s
 
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