Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005

Thank you Sandeep for providing that link. I took a quick look at that OIS Site and probably it can yield more info.

My suspicion is that the data we are looking for gets hidden or is made unavailable and gross numbers like 37K 485 applications received for the month do not help us go forward as substantial numbers could be from non-capped categories. In anycase thank you. I will explore this a bit later.

Hanuman



Sandeep_N said:
Hanuman55,
Check out http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msrmar05/BENEFIT.HTM
This states that there have been "37,110 I-485 permanent resident adjustments" receipts in Feb'05. Could not locate any data later than this. Interesting thing is the change in the approvals YTD which indicates that in 2004, USCIS had approved 2049874 whereas in 2005 it was 2050209 - not much of a difference. Hence if the DOS claims to be approving faster, it must be after Feb '05
Also As of Sept '02 there were 966,472 I-485 pending cases as per http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/msrsep02/BENEFIT.HTM Question is how many of these are EB3 of PIC having P.D. before June'02. As of Sept '03 there were 1,238,371 and in Jan '05 it was 1,114,144 pending 485s

Sandeep
Click to expand...
 
Intriguing!!

This item from Americanvisas.com that you provided is indeed intriguing! This VO spokesperson mentions that 30,000 EB visas were used in FY2003 from the recaptured EB visas. Please take a look at this data published by OIS of USCIS: http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/YrBk03Im.htm

In FY2003 they say they used only 82,137 visas from all EB (of the annual quota of 140K)!! The actual usage of recaptured ones happenned in 2001 (179,195, so about 39K over the annual 140K EB limit) 2002(174,968, so about 35K over the annual 140K).

That just makes me wonder what was s/he talking! Just a political boss like we have those toads appointed by the ruling party to panchayaths & town municipalities? (Well, may be they are far better. You can get something done by warming...)

But the tragedy is these blokes get to decide on dates that affect so many of us in so many different ways!


Hanuman


c9411010 said:
I saw the following at http://www.americanvisas.com/chroni...DepartmentState

(3) Was the visa cut-off for purposes of computing the 27% demand value under INA 202(a)(2) based on the statutory 140,000 (per INA 201(d)(1)(A) or on the total available under paras. 1-5 of INA 202(b)? If the latter, shouldn't this include the temporary AC21 "pool" visas and thus should equal 241,000? If the former, why?
VO: Calculations were based on the total amount of numbers available during FY-2005, which are estimated to be approximately 247,000, including the remaining AC21 numbers. Per AC21 approximately 131,000 numbers were "recaptured" based on unused FY-1999 and FY-2000 Employment-based numbers. During FY-2003 approximately 30,000 were used, and the remaining 101,000 are being utilized during FY-2005. AC21 numbers were not required in the other fiscal years because demand did not exceed the amount of numbers available under the normal annual limit.


and yes you are right i am talking about logic and not the law.. if the above is correct - and i believe it is true - then everything that is being claimed by shusterman and murthy and other experts on EB3 becoming unavailable
soon rings true..

and let me request one thing of you and everyone in this forum who are assuming the 101000 visas would be released in the last quarter.. if the above is right and your interpretation is wrong, how would your conclusions change..

don't want to throw a wet towel but i am convinced that the premise of a 101000 visas being released is not true
Click to expand...
 
c9411010 said:
I saw the following at http://www.americanvisas.com/chroni...DepartmentState

(3) Was the visa cut-off for purposes of computing the 27% demand value under INA 202(a)(2) based on the statutory 140,000 (per INA 201(d)(1)(A) or on the total available under paras. 1-5 of INA 202(b)? If the latter, shouldn't this include the temporary AC21 "pool" visas and thus should equal 241,000? If the former, why?
VO: Calculations were based on the total amount of numbers available during FY-2005, which are estimated to be approximately 247,000, including the remaining AC21 numbers. Per AC21 approximately 131,000 numbers were "recaptured" based on unused FY-1999 and FY-2000 Employment-based numbers. During FY-2003 approximately 30,000 were used, and the remaining 101,000 are being utilized during FY-2005. AC21 numbers were not required in the other fiscal years because demand did not exceed the amount of numbers available under the normal annual limit.


and yes you are right i am talking about logic and not the law.. if the above is correct - and i believe it is true - then everything that is being claimed by shusterman and murthy and other experts on EB3 becoming unavailable
soon rings true..

and let me request one thing of you and everyone in this forum who are assuming the 101000 visas would be released in the last quarter.. if the above is right and your interpretation is wrong, how would your conclusions change..

don't want to throw a wet towel but i am convinced that the premise of a 101000 visas being released is not true
Click to expand...


Nothing is available from about 101000,

There might be unused visa of EB3 from other countries. Similarly unused EB2 and EB1 numbers are also available. EB2 and EB1 usage in the countries other CIP is very less. Ultimately all these unused visa numbers should reach EB3 during the last quarter. So there is still chance of good movement.
 
July Bulletin

From my past experience, the consulates seem to be getting the Visa Bulletin by around the 7th-10th of each month - usually about a week before the bulletin is published. Hence if someone gets any info from them - please post.
 
Based on theConnet News Letter from AILA (Follow the link below)
http://www.shusterman.com/pdf/connect505.pdf
The hypothesis that there is any visa allocated to the EB3 or EB2 categories
from previous years does not seem to hold
Apparantly the clause to make visa available was in the original proposal and
was amended to make it available only to Nurses and PTs
Assuming that there are no more visa numbers for the last Quarter for Eb3,
The Question is, what kind of progress is expected after October?
Can we assume that the PD will move up at least at a rate of 1 month every month in the new fiscal year?

Any takes on this?
 
well that's good news. at least we now know that PD's have jumped by 2 months unless this case was approved in error.

rrajendr said:
Looks like 50K allocated to PT is kicking in. Look at the below url , it shows a NSC AOS EB3 Indian(in non-PT) with a PD of Aug 21st 2002 (spouse Indian) getting approval yesterday.

http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=177159

Also NSC I-485 receipt date processing jumped by 4 months, a giant leap.
http://www.aila.org/

Hope the PD for July bulletin has moved.
Click to expand...
 
swinging back to optimistic mode.. This surely is a good news.
rrajendr said:
Looks like 50K allocated to PT is kicking in. Look at the below url , it shows a NSC AOS EB3 Indian(in non-PT) with a PD of Aug 21st 2002 (spouse Indian) getting approval yesterday.

http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?t=177159

Also NSC I-485 receipt date processing jumped by 4 months, a giant leap.
http://www.aila.org/

Hope the PD for July bulletin has moved.
Click to expand...
 
Don't be that OPTIMISTIC

My brother got a mail from Chennai Consulate saying that

"Your PD is 01-Jan-2004 and the current PD for E3 is 01-Jun-2002, so you wait to wait till your PD is current to be scheduled for an interview."

This mail was received yesterday in response to his e-mail asking for an update on the Interview scheduling.

So I guess the above mentioned I-485 was approved in error.
 
helpwithGC said:
My brother got a mail from Chennai Consulate saying that

"Your PD is 01-Jan-2004 and the current PD for E3 is 01-Jun-2002, so you wait to wait till your PD is current to be scheduled for an interview."

This mail was received yesterday in response to his e-mail asking for an update on the Interview scheduling.

So I guess the above mentioned I-485 was approved in error.
Click to expand...

Usually Chennai consulate will get the bulletin somewhere around 9 th every month.We will wait for some more days :)
 
helpwithGC said:
My brother got a mail from Chennai Consulate saying that

"Your PD is 01-Jan-2004 and the current PD for E3 is 01-Jun-2002, so you wait to wait till your PD is current to be scheduled for an interview."

This mail was received yesterday in response to his e-mail asking for an update on the Interview scheduling.

So I guess the above mentioned I-485 was approved in error.
Click to expand...

I-485 approvals came from USCIS. The e-mail that was for your brother came from the US Embassy. There is a big difference from the agencies that you mentioned with regards to the information that they have.

Well we just have to wait for the July Visa Bulletin.

BREAKING NEWS!!! Even there is no supplemental visa bulletin that was published...

The U.S. Embassy in Manila has officially announced that they will start resuming the processing of Schedule A cases that were affected by retrogression. Please check the link below...

http://usembassy.state.gov/manila/wwwhr433.html

I think there will be a big movement in the July visa bulletin.


DALE
 
Indeed, looks optimistic!

I saw another 485 approval - Totally unbelievable case - Labor of 2004 approved in Dec 2004, EB3 from India, 140 approved in Jan/Feb and now 485 approved!! No way the case could have escaped Retrogression!

Just an unbelievable fluke or the emerging picture of the coming Quarter!!

I hope it is the latter!

Hanuman

gceeker05 said:
swinging back to optimistic mode.. This surely is a good news.
Click to expand...
 
Hanuman55 said:
I saw another 485 approval - Totally unbelievable case - Labor of 2004 approved in Dec 2004, EB3 from India, 140 approved in Jan/Feb and now 485 approved!! No way the case could have escaped Retrogression!

Just an unbelievable fluke or the emerging picture of the coming Quarter!!

I hope it is the latter!

Hanuman
Click to expand...

That indicates sada predictions is right ........
 
july 1st bulleting

the ways of the lord.. will wonders never cease..

1st jan 2005 .. that sounds more like a dream.. well we will know this week i guess..
 
Hanuman55 said:
I saw another 485 approval - Totally unbelievable case - Labor of 2004 approved in Dec 2004, EB3 from India
Hanuman
Click to expand...

What is priority date? He might have applied LC earlier and I-140 or his wife might have borned in some other country
 
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Search for VenkiKS postings.

Or you could search for mine and look up my congrats to him. You will be surprised/amazed/looking for your lower jaw all over the place!!!

Let us hope for a great July/Aug/Sep Bulletins

Hanuman

tammy2 said:
What is priority date? He might have applied LC earlier and I-140 or his wife might have borned in some other country
Click to expand...
 
Guys,
I remembered reading few posts with subject line "Retrogression did NOT affect my 485" about two three months back. What the person was informed by his lawyer that if you had filed your 485 application before Jan. 05 then you're not affected(not me...he said in his email..I believe it was in Vermont VSC 140 or 485 folder). If I see some CP guys with a PD after June 1st. 2002 getting interview then I would see some light and hope at the end of the tonnel. Shusterman/Murthy and all the lawyers I see are predicting that EB3 will be unavailable which makes me very passimastic about coming July/Aug/Sept. Bulletine. But..surely keeping my fingers crossed and hoping for the best and preparing for the worst.
 
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Bapunagar,

But for getting immigrant visa ( green card) the pd should be current. Even it is consular or AOS the USIS /consular has to request the visa from the DOS.USually consulate will get the bulletin around 10 th of each month...
 
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