Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005

To recapture from 2001-2004

If whatever is claimed on americanvisas.com is just sheer truth, man it could be devastating because if 81% of 247,000 available numbers can be used up in first 3 quarters imagine what would happen even if they recapture 65,000 (after 50% reserved for Schedule A occupations) the numbers from 2001-2004. This new 65k could be used up in just 1 quarter because their average use in each quarter is 66k and PD's not moving much.

On top of it BRC's clearing the files will add more demand for the numbers becuase they are clearing older cases first and I think most of them are still from years 2001 & 2002.

I dont know what to predict now. Am I loosing hope already??? :mad:

_____________________________________
I am not a attorney. Just my opinions.
 
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Recapture!!!

Sandeep_N said:
Unfortunately, the americanvisas article is similar in wording to what Murthy was saying. And the question and answer format presented here sems to suggest quotes from an actual representative which all these websites are reporting. (Note the similarity in wording like "For the remainder of FY05 EB3 should remain pretty much where it is now"). I wish the DOS/VO would make public these so that we can know the authenticity.

If this is to be taken at face value, then why are they enacting the law for recapture of the visas if they are already asuming those visas available while calculating the visa cut off dates? Does not make sense.
Sandeep
Click to expand...

I think as of now we are using the recaptured VISAS from 1999-2000 (AC-21), the new law/amemdments are to recapture the lost visas from 2001-2004.
 
So provided the report is correct, this is the worst case scene:
247k were available
67k Used 1st quarter '05
67k Used 2nd quarter '05
67k Used 3rd quarter '05
47k Available Last Quarter '05 if there is no recapture
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving I believe makes sense.

OR Recapture happens:
65k Recapture (if it happens) for EB3 leaving nurses
112k Total Available for last Quarter '05
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving is conservative and we can see some movement.

OR Best Case scenario:
112k+ Unused among the 67k each quarter'05
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving is very much conservative and may change.

Is this interpretation correct?
Sandeep
 
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In the worst case(1st scenario), there would be 23k available for other professionals .. will that push the date to 1st jan 2003?

Second scenario is pretty much what can do great for all.

Third scenario would be indeed the best case scenario..

what do you say?

Sandeep_N said:
So provided the report is correct, this is the worst case scene:
247k were available
67k Used 1st quarter '05
67k Used 2nd quarter '05
67k Used 3rd quarter '05
47k Available Last Quarter '05 if there is no recapture
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving I believe makes sense.

OR Recapture happens:
65k Recapture (if it happens) for EB3 leaving nurses
112k Total Available for last Quarter '05
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving is conservative and we can see some movement.

OR Best Case scenario:
112k+ Unused among the 67k each quarter'05
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving is very much conservative and may change.

Is this interpretation correct?
Sandeep
Click to expand...
 
Dunno but a guess

When they are using up 67k numbers in each quarter and the PD is only moving by a month or 2 even if they recapture 65k this is equallent to average use of 67k per quarter and PD may move a month or two but with the quota of last quarter 47k it may move may be by 4 months. But DOS may not consider the 65k until its made into law.

So for the time being they may only count on 47k which will be available in last quarter. If that is the scenario then according to past 4-5 months history may be PD's will move by 15 days - 1 month.

This is my educated guess only.

________________________________
I am not an attorney. Above are just my opinions.


Sandeep_N said:
So provided the report is correct, this is the worst case scene:
247k were available
67k Used 1st quarter '05
67k Used 2nd quarter '05
67k Used 3rd quarter '05
47k Available Last Quarter '05 if there is no recapture
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving I believe makes sense.

OR Recapture happens:
65k Recapture (if it happens) for EB3 leaving nurses
112k Total Available for last Quarter '05
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving is conservative and we can see some movement.

OR Best Case scenario:
112k+ Unused among the 67k each quarter'05
In this case, the DOS statement of it not moving is very much conservative and may change.

Is this interpretation correct?
Sandeep
Click to expand...
 
I suppose the DOS statement is incorrect or they are very conservative. Is their any place they provide the statistics for Visa usage with numbers. I can only beleive to their news after seeing this. Is their anyway one can request this information?

When DOS announced retrogression on Jan 2005 Bulletien, we were in the second quarter for FY2005 and they did mention that the 101K from AC21 are available and will be used once the yearly cap is reached. They did not mention as saying it is being used.

Something tells me that their will be movement in PD ( Trying to be positive here) and DOS is more conservative. I suppose their PD movement is tied up with the 485 ND movement . They are carefully moving so that USCIS looks good on approving cases.

This is just my view.

gc_vsc




LaborCleared said:
When they are using up 67k numbers in each quarter and the PD is only moving by a month or 2 even if they recapture 65k this is equallent to average use of 67k per quarter and PD may move a month or two but with the quota of last quarter 47k it may move may be by 4 months. But DOS may not consider the 65k until its made into law.

So for the time being they may only count on 47k which will be available in last quarter. If that is the scenario then according to past 4-5 months history may be PD's will move by 15 days - 1 month.

This is my educated guess only.

________________________________
I am not an attorney. Above are just my opinions.
Click to expand...
 
PD - Visa Recapture

The main reason why Congress and Senate are bending over backwards for EB3 visa recapture is to help qualified nurses get GC. Nurses come under Schedule A occupations and do not require a Labor certification. They directly apply for I-140 and I-485. Their priority date is the I-140 application date. If USCIS does not intend to make the priority date 'Current' for Eb3 China, Philliphines and India, then the recapture of visas from 2001 to 2004 would be a futile attempt, since the nurses would be unable to adjust status or in most cases not able to get an immigrant stamp at a consulate abroad becos of retrogression. Incidentally, most of the nurses are from these very retrogression affected countries, especially Philliphines. In my opinion, once the 'visa recapture' becomes law, the Priority Dates have to become current.
 
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Even I am optimistic about EB3 moving forward. You are right they said rolledover numbers are available to use but did not say they are being used (which is only claimed on americanvisas.com)

Anyway here are the excerpts from Jan 2005 Bulletin.

"creating a “pool” of 130,107 numbers which could be allocated to applicants in the Employment First, Second, and Third preference categories once the annual Employment-based numerical limit has been reached. Approximately 101,000 of these “pool” numbers remain available for use during FY-1005." :)
 
Also I think the annual limit for FY2005 should be 140K + 7K( from unused FY2004 family visa).
The quarterly cap of 27% should be based on the above 147K .

When DOS says 27% are met for each quarter, it does not include the unused visa's for other countries. It just means all Visa's for India,China and Phillipes are used up. Any unused Visa's from other countries had to be recaptured and that is what Congress is trying to do for the years 2001-2004.

The reason why I think AC21 unused Visa cannot be used in the yearly and quarterly limit is

Say if they had to use all the 101k along with the 147K for FY 2005, it leads upto 248K and each quarter can use 27% which will be ~67K. Out of 67K each country has a %( I suppose it is 7%).

If Visa's are used in that way, then we are providing the AC21 number ( recaptured visa) to countries that are not going to use them .

I think DOS might have to use a different approach on using the AC21 unused numbers. If they add to the yearly Quota at the begining of the year then some of them could be unused. This will lead to another law to recapture unused recaptured visa. So I am of the view that AC21 is not included when they divide the numbers for each Quarter.

Any seniors who know how recaptured visa are used can shed more light to this discussion.

All said and done, the above views are just some of my thoughts and efforts to be positive and give hope for all retorgressed applicants.


LaborCleared said:
Even I am optimistic about EB3 moving forward. You are right they said rolledover numbers are available to use but did not say they are being used (which is only claimed on americanvisas.com)

Anyway here are the excerpts from Jan 2005 Bulletin.

"creating a “pool” of 130,107 numbers which could be allocated to applicants in the Employment First, Second, and Third preference categories once the annual Employment-based numerical limit has been reached. Approximately 101,000 of these “pool” numbers remain available for use during FY-1005." :)
Click to expand...

gc_vsc
 
GC_VSC,

Excellent dissection. I agree with your viewpoint.
Personally, I am always happy :) when someone raises the hope and you and other members have really taken extra efforts in correctly understanding the matter. Eagerly waiting to see this comes true..

gc_vsc said:
Also I think the annual limit for FY2005 should be 140K + 7K( from unused FY2004 family visa).
The quarterly cap of 27% should be based on the above 147K .

When DOS says 27% are met for each quarter, it does not include the unused visa's for other countries. It just means all Visa's for India,China and Phillipes are used up. Any unused Visa's from other countries had to be recaptured and that is what Congress is trying to do for the years 2001-2004.

The reason why I think AC21 unused Visa cannot be used in the yearly and quarterly limit is

Say if they had to use all the 101k along with the 147K for FY 2005, it leads upto 248K and each quarter can use 27% which will be ~67K. Out of 67K each country has a %( I suppose it is 7%).

If Visa's are used in that way, then we are providing the AC21 number ( recaptured visa) to countries that are not going to use them .

I think DOS might have to use a different approach on using the AC21 unused numbers. If they add to the yearly Quota at the begining of the year then some of them could be unused. This will lead to another law to recapture unused recaptured visa. So I am of the view that AC21 is not included when they divide the numbers for each Quarter.

Any seniors who know how recaptured visa are used can shed more light to this discussion.

All said and done, the above views are just some of my thoughts and efforts to be positive and give hope for all retorgressed applicants.

gc_vsc
Click to expand...
 
House expected to vote today or tommorrow(05/05/05)...Senate would vote on May 9th after their return from recess!....Hope this becomes a law before the final quarter or FY2005...Else the 27% limit would throw a spanner in the works, starting FY2006...
 
50000 iV's for RN & PT's

http://www.shusterman.com/.

I am worried and confused a little bit as this news ticker says 50000 numbers will be made available imm. for Scheduled A occupations (RN's and PT's) as soon as the bill is signed into law. There is no mention of Engineers... :confused: :( .

Does it mean that they are recapturing only for Nurses & PT's? I think will have to wait until full details come out. Sitting with fingers crossed as always.

__________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opinions.
 
As per the official press release it states
http://appropriations.senate.gov/hearmarkups/05-03-0505SuppConference.htm

Additionally, the Hutchison amendment recapturing unused EB3 visas and the Frist amendment regarding Australian visas were included.

So, I suppose they are meaning 50% for Nurse and PT which will be 50-60K. Hope it stays that way.

Gc_vsc
LaborCleared said:
http://www.shusterman.com/.

I am worried and confused a little bit as this news ticker says 50000 numbers will be made available imm. for Scheduled A occupations (RN's and PT's) as soon as the bill is signed into law. There is no mention of Engineers... :confused: :( .

Does it mean that they are recapturing only for Nurses & PT's? I think will have to wait until full details come out. Sitting with fingers crossed as always.

__________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opinions.
Click to expand...
 
Only taling about 50k for Schd. A occ.

This bulletin does not mention about Engineers. Its talking about Nurses only. Even www.shusterman.com website is also talking about Nurses only. ON this website if you look in Immigration News previous it had a sub-heading Ending Retrogression and now this has been changed to 50000 for Nurses. And if you click on that details say no more than 50000 can be recaptured. THere is no mention of Engineers here too or I am missing something. I am getting nervous and loosing hope.

helpwithGC said:
Check

http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_050405.html

We should see abig jump in the pririty dates in the coming visa bulletin.
Click to expand...
 
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