Predicted Priority Dates for final quarter of FY2005

I thought these 50k numbers for nurses and PT's were recapture from years 2001-2004. AC21 numbers 101k are from years 1999 & 2000 and as far as I understand they are alloted for EB categories unless they changed it very recently. The same is mentioned in DOS jan 2005 Visa bulletin too.

HumHongeKamyaab said:
rnt 50K of those visas going to schedule A workers. so others have just 50K.
Click to expand...
 
Yes I agree that they mentioned that they have 101K visas in Jan 2005 bulletine. If they really want to use them why would DOS predict that EB3 may not move either way in 2005?
 
Guys never in US will they predict something on a heavy positive note. They don't want to be questionable in future. Hence as analysed above, we should be positive and expect some decent progress in the final quarter of FY2005 though DOS says it that way.
 
I think on www.americanvisas.com they claimed that they had a chat with one of officer who confirmed them that these 101k numbers have been included in the quarterly 27% numbers. Meaning they pooled all available 140k for this fiscal year + 7k family based from FY 2004 and AC2101k making a total of 248k numbers available for fiscal year 2005 and they used up 27% of these 248k in each quarter for the 1st 3 quarters. But this news/claim has to be confirmed by DOS publicly. Only 1 website is reporting this info (atleast that I know off). I can not believe unless I see some authenticity for the above claim or if its widely reported by AILA and all other major immigration practisioners.

If whatever above claimed is true then DOS may be right in saying PD's may not move much. :( I wish this to be false and PD should forward. :D

__________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opinions.

baby_mde said:
Yes I agree that they mentioned that they have 101K visas in Jan 2005 bulletine. If they really want to use them why would DOS predict that EB3 may not move either way in 2005?
Click to expand...
 
As far as my knoledge isconcerned they are (DOS) not suppose to use them like that. I think unused visas should be used in Q4.

Now what happens to unused visas in Q1, Q2 and Q3 which were unsed visas from previous years

I think we need another law to use unused visas from unused visas. this is strange.

Any thoughts?
 
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So what is the consesus prediction on the June bulletin. Its unlucky if it stays the same way through the end of this year. 10 days make a large difference
 
Senate Passed Special Spending Bill Today & President to Sign Before End of This Week

http://www.immigration-law.com/

05/10/2005: Senate Passed Special Spending Bill Today & President to Sign Before End of This Week

Today, the Senate passed the Conference compromise bill, which is expected to become a law before next week as the President is expected to sign this legislation before the end of this week. This bill contains REAL ID, 50,000 Nurse/PT/Performing Artist Recapture of 2001-2004 Unused Visa Numbers, and H-2B Amendment to Admit Former H-2B Workers Return to the U.S. Being Not Subject to the Annual Cap. Stay tuned to this web site for the details of the immigration legislations
 
HumHongeKamyaab:

The AC21 numbers that increases that visa numbers to 195,000 is NOT FOR H1B...It is employment based visa numbers...Please read the analysis on the AILA that i have specified the link. One purpose of this law is to clear the backlog on the Adjustment of status from previous years (below 2000)...How can the DOS clear the backlog if they would allocate NON-IMMIGRANT h1b visa numbers??? Tell me???

I still stand that there are 101,000 EB visa numbers to be given and the 130,000 which 50k are for nurses is separate from the 101,000...


Trust me on this guys!

dale
 
Hey Labour Cleared:

The one you said you chatted with is NOT from DOS...

In the law you can only allocate the AC21 numbers ONCE the annual limit has been reached or exhausted...

I will explain to you in detail so that everybody can understand and end this confusion... Ok we all know that there are 2 MAJOR CATEGORIES OF VISA that can be allocated to applicant that would be based on one's petition. The first major category is the FAMILY BASED which i would not be discussing because you are more interested in the second category the EMPLOYMENT BASED. Employment Based visas have a worldwide limit of 140,000. I hope you agree again coz i am 100% right.

There are several categories of Employment Based visas...Do you agree? Definitely there is the EB1...extra ordinary ability (Einstein type) there is the EB2 (less Einstein like outstanding professors or researchers...nuclear scientists) EB3 in which most of you all belong... EB3 is separated by skilled/pro and other workers. (Other workers category of eb3 can only eat 10,000 visas) EB4 Religious workers, EB5 you have to possess million$$$ in order to be included in this category coz this is for investors...

(THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM THE 27% THE DOS IS TALKING ABOUT)
This means that out of the 140,000 worldwide limit the EB1 has 28.6% or 40,040 visas , EB2 has 28.6% or 40,040 visas, EB3 28.6% or 40,040 visas, EB4 7.1% or 9,940 visas, EB5 7.1% or 9,940...This is how EB are divided according to categories.

NOW THIS IS THE 27%...140,000 times 27% is equals to 37,800 Employment Based Visas... According to law and I am 100% right over Immigration and Nationality Act Sections 201, 202 and 203...You cannot give MORE THAN 37,800 EB visas for all categories PER QUARTER...this is the reason why DOS has shut down and retrogressed the PIC countries.

All countries regardless of population has the same number of annual cap which is 7%...So even China has a billion population China can only get 9,800 Employment Based visas. The reason why there is retrogression on the PIC countries (Philippines, India and China) is because they have exceeded the 9,800 Employment Based visas. Demands for visas for these countries are too high...

This is the reason why there is a retrogression...

TO END THE CONFUSION ON ALL OF YOU I WILL EXPLAIN IN DETAIL BASED ON COMPREHENSIVE RESEARCH OF THE LAW HOW VISA NUMBERS ARE DISTRIBUTED I CAN EVEN HAVE A DEBATE TO ANY IMMIGRATION LAWYER...

In this case since there is a 27% ban on the distribution of visas PER QUARTER and the 7% CAP of the PIC countries. The reason why there is a backlog on EB3 is because there are many applicants or the demand is HIGH...Since the EB3 can only eat up 28.6% or 40,040 WHICH IS BASED ON THE LAW of the worldwide level ALL OF YOU are retrogressed even further plus the 7% per country cap...

NOW WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO THE LAST QUARTER OF THE FISCAL YEAR???

I CHALLENGE ANY IMMIGRATION LAWYERS, OR ANYBODY SMART TO PROVE THAT I AM WRONG BASED ON THE LAWS OF INA SECTIONS 201, 202 AND 203 AND THE AC21 ACT OF 2000...

The last quarter of the fiscal year which would start at July 1, 2005 and ends at September 30, 2005 would...REMEMBER THIS WOULD ONLY HAPPEN IF THERE ARE VISAS AVAILABLE

1. The law states that if there are not too many EB1 or einstein that ate up the 28.6% visa allotment for them it would go to EB2...Ok if there are not that too many EB2 that eat up the numbers of 28.6% plus the ones that the EB1 did not use it will GO TO EB3...yeah all of these numbers that were not used by the EB1 and EB2 FOR THE WHOLE WORLD NOT ONLY IN THE PIC COUNTRIES category WILL GO TO EB3.

2. The last quarter lifts the per country cap of 7% if there are still visas available...Yes you are all right you can all eat the LEFTOVER visas...

3. Numbers that were not used in the FAMILY BASED categories will be alloted to a category who has still some demands...in this case the EB3 has still demands that is why the DOS published that there are still 7,000 VISAS.

4. It lifts the 27% ban on visas...These 27% has two effects that would be beneficial for the PIC countries...Here is the analysis... We have a 7% per country cap right? For example the PIC countries has reached their 7% cap at the first quarter of FY 2005 which was last October 1, 2004 to December 31, 2005 which the DOS claimed we have reached that because they shut the PIC countries down and only 2002 or earlier can demand for visas. 27% of 140,000 is 37,800 visas for each quarter...

I checked the statistics of USCIS based on the demand for visas for other countries on previous years and i found out that there are not that too many demands for other countries...Only Phil, India, China and Mexico has high demand for numbers...

I AM NOT SURE but I think not all of the 27% are being exhausted for each quarter based on my analysis... I am sure you will be asking me "SO WHY THE VISA BULLETIN ARE TOO SLOW?"

There are 2 reasons. One is because of the 7% per country cap, and second...because of the USCIS intention to clear the backlog THEY REALLY NEED TO SLOW DOWN THE PROCESSING of other new cases... For example they posted dates on I-140 Schedule A in the California Service Center that they are processing December 2005 dates when in fact there are still June 2005 THAT ARE NOT BEEN ADJUDICATED.

OR IT MIGHT BE THE 27% LEVEL HAS BEEN USED AS CLAIMED BY DOS...

Ok but the GOOD THING...assuming not all the 27% has been used for the last three quarters...What is leftover from the 3 quarters will be given to ALL OF YOU...

4. AC21 WOULD STILL BE AVAILABLE...I WILL STAND BY MY RESEARCH THAT THERE IS A DIFFERENCE BETWEEEN THE NUMBERS THAT WERE RECAPTURED FROM 1999 TO 2000 which is 101,000 AND THE ONE'S THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY RECAPTURED 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 which are for schedule A.

The 101,000 EB visas would still be available for ALL EB3 as stated by DOS...This is different from the 130,000 EB for schedule A...

OK LABOUR CLEARED THIS IS BASED ON THE LAW...THE ONE THAT YOU CHATTED WITH IS A FAKE...YOU KNOW WHY????

AC21 NUMBERS CAN ONLY BE USED ONCE THE 140,000 ANNUAL LIMIT FOR EMPLOYMENT BASED VISAS HAS BEEN USED, DRIED UP AND EXHAUSTED...

So these AC21 numbers would still be available for all of you...

So i challenge anyone to prove that i am wrong based on the law...


I am not a lawyer...I am just so cool...

DALE
 
STILL_DALE

You are cool , i agree and i did the same research 3 months back and i floated 3 threads with same conclusions and then i went to hibernate until the July bulletin will come out.
Now lets chill and wait for the next month bulletin

/s
 
Q

Still_dale,
Its Good that you have invested enough time to write this up. Good work. But I would like to ask you to read my post one more time :D . I DID NOT SAY I CHATTED WITH THEM. I SAID WWW.AMERICANVISAS.COM (http://www.americanvisas.com/chroni...DepartmentState) IS CLAIMING THAT THEY HAD A CHAT WITH..... If you read my earlier postings in this forum even I said according to LAW they can only use the AC21 numbers in last Q of the fiscal years. In my posting I also said I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS website's claim. I hope you understand plain english.

The above link was brought forward by gc_vsc into this forum. You can find his post on page 3 in this tread.

So please watch out your language (before saying/calling anyone "FAKE") and read the postings carefully before replying. No one in this forum has anything against each other. And finally I am pretty sure most of us understand this as this usage of AC21 numbers will be in final Q because this has been extensively discussed in this forum.

Good luck every one.
 
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still_dale,
The below link you provided in one of your previous posting's about the numbers increased to 195000 and said to look for section 102 (a).

http://www.immigrationlinks.com/news/news556.htm.

But nowhere it mentioned that these numbers belong to EB immigration visa numbers. This is for H1 numbers increased from 65k to 195k for those 3 years. Please read the analysis of this section at the bottom of this section.

Here are the excerpts

Analysis: This section significantly increases the H-1B cap, and, by clearing out the pending case backlog carried over to the current years’ cap from past years, ensures that the full 195,000 visas are available in FY2001.

I would infer this as they are talking about carring over pending H1b applications to next year quotas and that is what they mean by "backlog carried over to current year's"

I dont see immigration numbers being mentioned anywhere here in this section. So where did you conclude it from? What is your source? If you have seen it anywhere can you please provide the link of it.

Other members thoughts & opinions after reading the above link are very much appreciated.

___________________________________
I am not an attorney. Just my opininos.

still_dale said:
HumHongeKamyaab:

The AC21 numbers that increases that visa numbers to 195,000 is NOT FOR H1B...It is employment based visa numbers...Please read the analysis on the AILA that i have specified the link. One purpose of this law is to clear the backlog on the Adjustment of status from previous years (below 2000)...How can the DOS clear the backlog if they would allocate NON-IMMIGRANT h1b visa numbers??? Tell me???

I still stand that there are 101,000 EB visa numbers to be given and the 130,000 which 50k are for nurses is separate from the 101,000...


Trust me on this guys!

dale
Click to expand...
 
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http://www.visalaw.com/05may1/5may105.html

As part of the Tsunami/Iraq spending bill Congress is set to pass this week, Congress extended a provision in the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act of 2000 that allowed unused employment-based green cards from 1999 and 2000 to be reclaimed for later years. The new law allows for the continuation of this practice for the years 2001 through 2004 as long as the numbers are allocated for nurses and physical therapists (Department of Labor Schedule A occupations) and as long as the number used does not exceed 50,000.

The green cards should become available immediately after President Bush signs the bill next week, but it is not clear how quickly consulates will move to issue the approvals. The bill is not quite as generous as an earlier version approved in the Senate that would have allowed all 140,000 of the potentially available unused green cards to be reclaimed. Half would have been available to nurses and the rest would have been available to all other workers.
 
Dear Labour Cleared:

My apologies for you. I did not call you "fake" the one that i called fake is the one that chatted with American Visas. I am really sorry.

One more thing based on the AC21, the 195,000 visa allotments are for temporary workers. Which leads to the next scary question...

If you would compute the visa numbers alloted during the years 1999 to 2000 and 2004? >>> It would not reach 101,000 --- the one that DOS claimed that would be available at the last quarter of FY2005.

Let's wait and see. It's better that we join hands and help each other...

dale
 
Dale is Right.....

Dale is correct[2 different recaptures 1) 101,000 & 2) 130,000]...Here is the latest from www.shusterman.com


The employment-based option is becoming less attractive each month. In January 2005, the waiting times for persons born in India, China or the Philippines seeking to immigrate through the employment- based third preference category (EB-3) as professionals and skilled workers retrogressed from no wait time to three years literally overnight.

A couple of months later, the waiting times for unskilled workers went from zero to four years, also overnight. Soon, this category will become completely unavailable.

Recently, the State Department predicted that the EB-2 category (persons with advanced degrees or of exceptional ability), and possibly the EB-1 category (persons of extraordinary ability, outstanding researchers and professors and multinational executives and managers) for persons born in India and China would backlog within the next fiscal year.

Waiting times for the employment categories are going to continue to get longer and longer. Why? For starters, the Immigration Service, which approved very few applications for adjustment of status based on employment between late 2001 and the beginning of 2004 has been approving such applications at a record pace since mid-2004. The problem is that the quotas are set on an annual basis. Unused visa numbers in one fiscal year are not available for use in the next fiscal year.

The "recapture" provision recently passed by the House of Representatives would recover only 50,000 of the 130,000 immigrant visas lost between 2001 and 2004, and would restrict their usage to registered nurses and physical therapists. This is more a band-aid than a cure.

Consider the numbers. In fiscal year 2005, U.S. employers were able to use 248,000 EB immigrant visas, almost double the 140,000 usually available. This is because they used the normal 140,000 quota plus 7,000 unused family-based immigrant visas from the year before plus 101,000 "recaptured" visas from a law enacted in 2000, popularly known as AC-21. By September 30, all of the recaptured visas will be used.

What happens starting on October 1, 2005, the beginning of fiscal year 2006, when the quota reverts to a mere 140,000 visas plus the visas reserved for RNs and PTs?

It does not take a rocket scientist to predict that backlogs will continue to grow in most employment-based categories. This would be a tragedy for our country.

The United States is the country where the best and brightest minds from all over the world are attracted to. Just as our economy changed from one based on agriculture in the 19th century to one based on manufacturing in the 20th century, we must be prepared to be the leader in advanced technologies in the 21st century. Brain power is replacing muscle power.

This should be easy to accomplish since the U.S. has the finest system of higher education in the world. However, there is nothing in the DNA of Americans which makes us superior in intellect to other people from around the world.

The genius of the United States is that, more than any other country, we accept exceptional persons born around the world, and they, in turn, invent and refine the most advanced software, biotech drugs, and electronic equipment the world has ever seen. If we prevent these highly-talented people from residing in our country, maybe by the next generation, the leaders of these cutting edge industries will live in China or India.

Our immigration policies must continue to reunite families and offer a haven to refugees, but new laws need to be enacted to make our immigration system more self-interested. In an economy with hundreds of millions of workers, would doubling the quota of persons selected because of their needed skills from 140,000 to 280,000 damage our economy? On the contrary, it would stimulate the economy, and help insure the ascendancy of the U.S. for another generation.

We believe that Microsoft CEO Bill Gates' recent criticism of the H-1B program extends equally to employment-based immigration in general: "The whole idea of the H-1B visa thing is, 'Don't let too many smart people come into the country.' The whole thing doesn't make sense." Gates characterized the visa caps as "almost a case of a centrally controlled economy. If the demand is there, why have the regulation at all?"
 
Just got a call from a reliable source in Washington that President Bush has already signed the Iraqi Bill. IT IS OFFICIALLY A LAW AS OF TODAY...

DALE
 
05/11/2005: Today, President Swiftly Signed the Special Spending Bill into Law! It is Law Now.

President today signed into law H.R 1268, so-called special spending bill, which the Senate signed yesterday, May 10, 2005, not even wasting a day! Accordingly, the H-2B amendments and 20,000 visa number recaptures for the nurses, physical therapists, and exceptional performing artists under Schedule A became available as of today. Sadly the REAL ID Act also became a law as of today! For the President's statement in signing this bill, please click here.



http://www.immigration-law.com/
 
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