I still think protesting in front of PBEC makes sense. Without a labor certification and I-140 approval, we have to get yealy H1-B extensions. Secondly if any used visa numbers are reallocated, we need to have a labor certification to take the benefit.MDwaiter24 said:
Philadelphia Backlog Elimination Center Tracking
- Thread starter gp111
- Start date
The point is to get voice out
Department of State and Department of Homeland Security are forbidden places to hold rally... because of terrorists etc.etc. Besides Congress control the numbers, not Dept. of State (Dept. of State at fault only for disclosing this too late and too much a shock)
Phily backlog center is the perfect place, these fools process things randomly rather than following FIFO order... they were way too slow... waiting for one year to process the cases while Dallas was way ahead of them. Backlog center belongs to department of labor, and it can not prevent people from holding protest rally in front of their building... we have to select this "soft" target in order not to be sent to prison... but get the voice heard.
Phily is close enought to NJ, NY, Maryland, Delaware and DC, making it the best location.
Department of State and Department of Homeland Security are forbidden places to hold rally... because of terrorists etc.etc. Besides Congress control the numbers, not Dept. of State (Dept. of State at fault only for disclosing this too late and too much a shock)
Phily backlog center is the perfect place, these fools process things randomly rather than following FIFO order... they were way too slow... waiting for one year to process the cases while Dallas was way ahead of them. Backlog center belongs to department of labor, and it can not prevent people from holding protest rally in front of their building... we have to select this "soft" target in order not to be sent to prison... but get the voice heard.
Phily is close enought to NJ, NY, Maryland, Delaware and DC, making it the best location.
MDwaiter24
Registered Users (C)
richshi
Space in the front of Department of State building or even in front of the Capitol is public and there is nothing illegal about gathering on those grounds. No one can send you to prison. All they can do is to arrest you for tresspassing if people do some stupid stuff, like blocking traffic. As you pointed out Congress can allocate more visas for EB and therefore we need to protest where we can be visible by them. Protesting in front of PBEC is not going to gain us this visibility. With the retrogession PBEC lost its importance, as I said before it doesn't matter if you get processed now or a year later, it has no effect on the time when you get your GC, but quotas allocated by the Congress do.
richshi said:
Space in the front of Department of State building or even in front of the Capitol is public and there is nothing illegal about gathering on those grounds. No one can send you to prison. All they can do is to arrest you for tresspassing if people do some stupid stuff, like blocking traffic. As you pointed out Congress can allocate more visas for EB and therefore we need to protest where we can be visible by them. Protesting in front of PBEC is not going to gain us this visibility. With the retrogession PBEC lost its importance, as I said before it doesn't matter if you get processed now or a year later, it has no effect on the time when you get your GC, but quotas allocated by the Congress do.
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MDwaiter24
Registered Users (C)
sb
the benefits you are talking about you will get with filing I-485, which is dependent on the visa numbers. If you get your LC certified tomorrow and file for I-140 as well, it is not going to do any good, because of EB retrogession. So this is the problem we need to address and the Congress may fix it. The best way to gain their visibility is to rally by the Capitol and talk to them about this issue, send petitions to our congressmen and senators. With rallying in front of the PBEC we are not going to make this impact.
sb41 said:
the benefits you are talking about you will get with filing I-485, which is dependent on the visa numbers. If you get your LC certified tomorrow and file for I-140 as well, it is not going to do any good, because of EB retrogession. So this is the problem we need to address and the Congress may fix it. The best way to gain their visibility is to rally by the Capitol and talk to them about this issue, send petitions to our congressmen and senators. With rallying in front of the PBEC we are not going to make this impact.
MDwaiter24
Registered Users (C)
Rally on Capitol Hill
I believe that we need to do something about this situation and make the Congress aware of the issue and de facto legalized slavery. There are many people from Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia suffering the consequences of the retrogression. The Capitol Hill is easily accessible for people living in DC and the suburbs. People from NY, NJ, DE and PA can protest in front of the PBEC, because they need to get their act together as well. But making the Congress aware is urgent, otherwise we will be slaving here as second hand citizens for a few more years even with our I-140 filed.
I believe that we need to do something about this situation and make the Congress aware of the issue and de facto legalized slavery. There are many people from Maryland, Washington DC and Virginia suffering the consequences of the retrogression. The Capitol Hill is easily accessible for people living in DC and the suburbs. People from NY, NJ, DE and PA can protest in front of the PBEC, because they need to get their act together as well. But making the Congress aware is urgent, otherwise we will be slaving here as second hand citizens for a few more years even with our I-140 filed.
few questions...
Guys ..this is so sad and frustrating that I can't even express here. I feel like chasing a mirage here. I waited so long ( as many many others) and was very hopeful that by end of this year will get my LC and should be able to file for next stage early next year. Now everything looks like a fantasy. Everytime I see a light its nothing but a myth.
I know people are planning to take some actions. I have few questions though:
1. Does someone know how many Visa# are available in EB3 and EB2 category for Indian citizens? Is there a way to check that number online?
2. Is this a joint decision between DOL and DOS to implement FIFO in the most cruel ( and unjustified) way ?
3. Who can help us? Lawyers, Congressmen, senators...?
4. One thing I could not understand is this: Almost all the USCIS centers were processing I485 from 2004. How did they estimate the demand ?
May be my questions do not make sense. But I am not able to think straight. This is making me angry and you know what angers does to your mind
Guys ..this is so sad and frustrating that I can't even express here. I feel like chasing a mirage here. I waited so long ( as many many others) and was very hopeful that by end of this year will get my LC and should be able to file for next stage early next year. Now everything looks like a fantasy. Everytime I see a light its nothing but a myth.
I know people are planning to take some actions. I have few questions though:
1. Does someone know how many Visa# are available in EB3 and EB2 category for Indian citizens? Is there a way to check that number online?
2. Is this a joint decision between DOL and DOS to implement FIFO in the most cruel ( and unjustified) way ?
3. Who can help us? Lawyers, Congressmen, senators...?
4. One thing I could not understand is this: Almost all the USCIS centers were processing I485 from 2004. How did they estimate the demand ?
May be my questions do not make sense. But I am not able to think straight. This is making me angry and you know what angers does to your mind
USCISisMockery
Registered Users (C)
MDwaiter24 said:
Sudden interest in this forum is taking toll on portal server and if we are seriously thinking of taking any awareness effort, we need to open new Yahoo group or merge with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/techworkers/ group.
Also, its my understanding that PBEC is far more important than visa number retrogression, why ? because:
1) Labor certificate is owned by employer, you are just beneficiary so you have limited rights. 485 (AOS, Adjustment of status) is filed by you, you own it, you can represent yourself in court for any injustice.
2) if I had to choose 3 years wait for labor and 5 years wait
for 485, i would always choose 5 year wait for 485 because labor certificate is time sensitive application. Lets say we are suddenly in some kind of depression (though, if its something like 1929, then have to forgo "land of opportunity" and go back to "land of piece"), your labor is sure to be rejected but nobody can deny your 485 because of economic situations.
3) lot of uncertainities with labor. You are not 100% sure till your labor is approved. Whereas if you have correct documents and followed everything lawfully during your stay in US, USCIS can't reject your 485.
4) Psycologically its better to be stuck at stage 3 (485) than stage 1 (labor)
5) Visa numbers can be recaptured, can be added but labor certificates can't be adjudicated without following all the steps properly.
6) More people are affected by visa retrogression than PBEC so even if we don't focus on visa numbers, there will be lot of action. But with PBEC, we (300,000 of us) are the only who are affected
7) Logically it make sense to complain about something that we are waiting for 3 years rather that gripe about something that is going to come in future. I have good analogy, while standing in checkout line at wal-mart for 20 minutes you complain about line formed at the "return" counter.
8) Lot of native citizens are against labor certification (because they think it affects their jobs directly) than visa number. I still have to meet any sane US citizen who is against giving GC to any law biding resident but there are lot who think whole LC process is farce.
9) Visa availability dates can drastically change back to where it was, but PBEC can't eliminate all the backlog suddenly.
visa number is not our priority, without labor certificate we have nothing to shout about/at. Without visa number, we still have approved LC and 140.
On side note, as its high time for us, we should seriously think about taking some action. And to do that, we have strictly ignore/discourage any RIR->perm conversion, what is eb2,eb3, PERM questions and focus solely on PBEC.
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MDwaiter24
Registered Users (C)
atyagi
let me try to answer
1. Does someone know how many Visa# are available in EB3 and EB2 category for Indian citizens? Is there a way to check that number online?
The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. Exact numbers for a country are hard to know though but the retrogression dates from Visa Bulletin can give you an idea.
2. Is this a joint decision between DOL and DOS to implement FIFO in the most cruel ( and unjustified) way ?
The way it works is when your PD (when you filed at SWA) is posted on Visa Bulletin you can adjust your status. This is beneficial to people at BEC, because PERM folks with a latter PD will not cut in the line. The rest is just the plain math applied to my answer for question 1.
3. Who can help us? Lawyers, Congressmen, senators...?
Congressmen can allocate or increase 140,000 cap to help us out and to keep pressure on BEC to work faster.
4. One thing I could not understand is this: Almost all the USCIS centers were processing I485 from 2004. How did they estimate the demand ?
Not sure how to answer this one.
let me try to answer
1. Does someone know how many Visa# are available in EB3 and EB2 category for Indian citizens? Is there a way to check that number online?
The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. Exact numbers for a country are hard to know though but the retrogression dates from Visa Bulletin can give you an idea.
2. Is this a joint decision between DOL and DOS to implement FIFO in the most cruel ( and unjustified) way ?
The way it works is when your PD (when you filed at SWA) is posted on Visa Bulletin you can adjust your status. This is beneficial to people at BEC, because PERM folks with a latter PD will not cut in the line. The rest is just the plain math applied to my answer for question 1.
3. Who can help us? Lawyers, Congressmen, senators...?
Congressmen can allocate or increase 140,000 cap to help us out and to keep pressure on BEC to work faster.
4. One thing I could not understand is this: Almost all the USCIS centers were processing I485 from 2004. How did they estimate the demand ?
Not sure how to answer this one.
MDwaiter24
Registered Users (C)
Mockery
your post is a proof that we need to fight on two fronts:
- PBEC - to increase the speed and post timelines
- Congress - to increase the quota for EB categories
your post is a proof that we need to fight on two fronts:
- PBEC - to increase the speed and post timelines
- Congress - to increase the quota for EB categories
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StressTestInUSA
Registered Users (C)
Yep...we sure need to do something. We spent the best of the years and any $$ if at all we could save for insurances and taxes...
Going back and starting all over again after so many years is getting drained psychologically..
As someone posted..lets wait for a couple of months..things might get clearer, otherwise 'Sharanam..sharanam' with Rajiv Khanna..Murthy and goto Senators, Congressmen and make our voices heard...
Wonder how many are having a sleepless night..
for insurances and taxes...Going back and starting all over again after so many years is getting drained psychologically..
As someone posted..lets wait for a couple of months..things might get clearer, otherwise 'Sharanam..sharanam' with Rajiv Khanna..Murthy and goto Senators, Congressmen and make our voices heard...
Wonder how many are having a sleepless night..
USCISisMockery
Registered Users (C)
I feel dejected right now, but it won't stop me bashing some members who had high hope from BEC and USCIS.
Unfortunately "don't sleep...wake up...otherwise..." slogan is turning out true now. We still have last chance to save ourself before "they" literally throw us out.
Unfortunately "don't sleep...wake up...otherwise..." slogan is turning out true now. We still have last chance to save ourself before "they" literally throw us out.
The following has been posted in murthy.com
What Can I Expect in the Future?
The Visa Bulletin indicated that forward movement of the dates is likely to be limited at least for the remainder of this calendar year, 2005. In a more detailed discussion with The Law Office of Sheela Murthy this morning, the senior official in charge at the DOS advised us that the plan is to hold the visa dates where they are for the month of November 2005. They do not anticipate making changes for November 2005, unless the data they received from the USCIS is in error regarding the number of pending I-140 filings that were ready for approval, as well as other information that goes into establishing cutoff dates.
Conclusion
The cutoff dates are based upon estimates of demand for the limited supply of visa numbers. This demand, in turn, is fueled by case filings and processing times at the USCIS and the Department of Labor. The approvals from the Department of Labor have started to increase, because they are coming from two sources. That is, PERM labor certifications are being approved and pre-PERM cases in the backlog centers are also being approved. Additionally, since EB3 numbers have been unavailable for three months, many of those cases pending with USCIS now have approved I-140s and would be eligible for I-485 approval / filing if the visa numbers were available. Thus, the DOS established cutoff dates so far back. We at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy hope and believe that by early 2006 there should be some movement in the dates depending on the usage or demand for visa numbers.
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_091305.html
What Can I Expect in the Future?
The Visa Bulletin indicated that forward movement of the dates is likely to be limited at least for the remainder of this calendar year, 2005. In a more detailed discussion with The Law Office of Sheela Murthy this morning, the senior official in charge at the DOS advised us that the plan is to hold the visa dates where they are for the month of November 2005. They do not anticipate making changes for November 2005, unless the data they received from the USCIS is in error regarding the number of pending I-140 filings that were ready for approval, as well as other information that goes into establishing cutoff dates.
Conclusion
The cutoff dates are based upon estimates of demand for the limited supply of visa numbers. This demand, in turn, is fueled by case filings and processing times at the USCIS and the Department of Labor. The approvals from the Department of Labor have started to increase, because they are coming from two sources. That is, PERM labor certifications are being approved and pre-PERM cases in the backlog centers are also being approved. Additionally, since EB3 numbers have been unavailable for three months, many of those cases pending with USCIS now have approved I-140s and would be eligible for I-485 approval / filing if the visa numbers were available. Thus, the DOS established cutoff dates so far back. We at The Law Office of Sheela Murthy hope and believe that by early 2006 there should be some movement in the dates depending on the usage or demand for visa numbers.
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_091305.html
I remember someone in this forum mentioned a pending bill at senate about recapture unused visa numbers for EBs. What was the result?
We should focus our effort to push congress, senate to recapture, find or invent (whatever we just need more numbers) visa numbers. I think it is acheivable, since there was already some motion about it before.
As for BEC, since they already set up the centers, they already have the process, I believe once the data entry is completed, the approval pace will be pretty fast.
For many many members in this forum, just getting LC in the next a few months or year is not good enough. Getting I140 approval alone is not good enough. The real pain reliever would be to be able to file I485 so that we can get EAD, AP. Because the real pain with this long long GC process is that we are not free to change jobs, we constantly worry about job stability, our spouses are not allowed to work, we cannot travel outside US easily and worry free. With EAD and AP, we can do all above. So the bottom line is we need to be able to file I485. With the latest Oct. visa Bulletin this is nearly impossilbe. So, we need to push hard to find any way to help with the visa number situation.
I'm will show my support to any effort on the visa number front.
We should focus our effort to push congress, senate to recapture, find or invent (whatever we just need more numbers) visa numbers. I think it is acheivable, since there was already some motion about it before.
As for BEC, since they already set up the centers, they already have the process, I believe once the data entry is completed, the approval pace will be pretty fast.
For many many members in this forum, just getting LC in the next a few months or year is not good enough. Getting I140 approval alone is not good enough. The real pain reliever would be to be able to file I485 so that we can get EAD, AP. Because the real pain with this long long GC process is that we are not free to change jobs, we constantly worry about job stability, our spouses are not allowed to work, we cannot travel outside US easily and worry free. With EAD and AP, we can do all above. So the bottom line is we need to be able to file I485. With the latest Oct. visa Bulletin this is nearly impossilbe. So, we need to push hard to find any way to help with the visa number situation.
I'm will show my support to any effort on the visa number front.
You are right:
1) We do need to address the issue of slow LC certifications and for that if there is a plan to stand outside the PBEC and do a legal protest,I am in full support.
2) The need for additional visa numbers for EB1/EB2/EB3 categories needs to be highlighted with full force and if congress is the authority in that we need to approach our local congressmen/women in a big way.
GUYS- THE TIME HAS COME TO TAKE SOME ACTION!! I ALWAYS BELIEVED IN SHOWING OUR PROTESTS IN PEACEFUL WAY!! BUT NEVER GOT ANY SUPPORT!ATLEAST NOW WAKE UP AND ACT!!!
I have already met my local congressmen and shall meet him again!! Please find your local congressman and approach them with confidence.
1) We do need to address the issue of slow LC certifications and for that if there is a plan to stand outside the PBEC and do a legal protest,I am in full support.
2) The need for additional visa numbers for EB1/EB2/EB3 categories needs to be highlighted with full force and if congress is the authority in that we need to approach our local congressmen/women in a big way.
GUYS- THE TIME HAS COME TO TAKE SOME ACTION!! I ALWAYS BELIEVED IN SHOWING OUR PROTESTS IN PEACEFUL WAY!! BUT NEVER GOT ANY SUPPORT!ATLEAST NOW WAKE UP AND ACT!!!
I have already met my local congressmen and shall meet him again!! Please find your local congressman and approach them with confidence.
MDwaiter24 said:
I agree with you, USCISis Mockery! Very good! Points taken!
USCISisMockery said:Sudden interest in this forum is taking toll on portal server and if we are seriously thinking of taking any awareness effort, we need to open new Yahoo group or merge with http://groups.yahoo.com/group/techworkers/ group.
Also, its my understanding that PBEC is far more important than visa number retrogression, why ? because:
1) Labor certificate is owned by employer, you are just beneficiary so you have limited rights. 485 (AOS, Adjustment of status) is filed by you, you own it, you can represent yourself in court for any injustice.
2) if I had to choose 3 years wait for labor and 5 years wait
for 485, i would always choose 5 year wait for 485 because labor certificate is time sensitive application. Lets say we are suddenly in some kind of depression (though, if its something like 1929, then have to forgo "land of opportunity" and go back to "land of piece"), your labor is sure to be rejected but nobody can deny your 485 because of economic situations.
3) lot of uncertainities with labor. You are not 100% sure till your labor is approved. Whereas if you have correct documents and followed everything lawfully during your stay in US, USCIS can't reject your 485.
4) Psycologically its better to be stuck at stage 3 (485) than stage 1 (labor)
5) Visa numbers can be recaptured, can be added but labor certificates can't be adjudicated without following all the steps properly.
6) More people are affected by visa retrogression than PBEC so even if we don't focus on visa numbers, there will be lot of action. But with PBEC, we (300,000 of us) are the only who are affected
7) Logically it make sense to complain about something that we are waiting for 3 years rather that gripe about something that is going to come in future. I have good analogy, while standing in checkout line at wal-mart for 20 minutes you complain about line formed at the "return" counter.
8) Lot of native citizens are against labor certification (because they think it affects their jobs directly) than visa number. I still have to meet any sane US citizen who is against giving GC to any law biding resident but there are lot who think whole LC process is farce.
9) Visa availability dates can drastically change back to where it was, but PBEC can't eliminate all the backlog suddenly.
visa number is not our priority, without labor certificate we have nothing to shout about/at. Without visa number, we still have approved LC and 140.
On side note, as its high time for us, we should seriously think about taking some action. And to do that, we have strictly ignore/discourage any RIR->perm conversion, what is eb2,eb3, PERM questions and focus solely on PBEC.
whereismy_gc
Registered Users (C)
Don't give a damn until your LC is approved!
Agreed, Mr. USCISisMockery. Why the hell are these guys keep changing the dates back and forth? Why was the cut-off date not set to '98, 3 or 4 years ago? How come they were able to issue visas before this BEC thing started? I agree there are more approvals now than back then, but that is not the only reason. These guys just don't want to issue any more green cards to any outsiders. So that you, me and you too (340,000) applicants can pay to extend their work visas every year and Mr. Bush (evil spirit) can reduce his deficit.
I have very little faith in this Evil Spirit's administration. Look at what happened in Missi., La and the all Katrina victims? Do you think they would care more for non-citizens than Citizens, at least i don't? This guys doesn't even care for people who fight in Iraq to defend his word. He goes out on vacation while the soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan have been stuck there for years (may be in more worse condition than what we are here in this freaking land of opportunity). So....
USCISisMockery said:How about awareness effort
Some good things out of the retrogression:
-Its fair in the sense that PERM applicant and lucky Dallas BEC can't file for 485 without waiting for Philly BEC.
-My username turns out to be true and you thought DOL is joke
Personally I don't give damn about visa numbers till my labor is approved.
Agreed, Mr. USCISisMockery. Why the hell are these guys keep changing the dates back and forth? Why was the cut-off date not set to '98, 3 or 4 years ago? How come they were able to issue visas before this BEC thing started? I agree there are more approvals now than back then, but that is not the only reason. These guys just don't want to issue any more green cards to any outsiders. So that you, me and you too (340,000) applicants can pay to extend their work visas every year and Mr. Bush (evil spirit) can reduce his deficit.
I have very little faith in this Evil Spirit's administration. Look at what happened in Missi., La and the all Katrina victims? Do you think they would care more for non-citizens than Citizens, at least i don't? This guys doesn't even care for people who fight in Iraq to defend his word. He goes out on vacation while the soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan have been stuck there for years (may be in more worse condition than what we are here in this freaking land of opportunity). So....
as per my understand
hai,
i am the silent reader of this forum. i want to know that my understanding is right or not. anyway let me tell you what i understood from this eb2 and eb3 retrogression.
i think this retrogression is to make us wait till they get next year quota.
i guess they retrogress the dates to 98,99 because they may not having enough quota for this year.for example if they retrogress to 2000, there might be few people who filed at 2000, if they get their labour cleared they will file for 140 and 485, then they can't issue the work permit since they r out of quota. that's why may be they retrogress to the year which no people remains in that year.
hai,
i am the silent reader of this forum. i want to know that my understanding is right or not. anyway let me tell you what i understood from this eb2 and eb3 retrogression.
i think this retrogression is to make us wait till they get next year quota.
i guess they retrogress the dates to 98,99 because they may not having enough quota for this year.for example if they retrogress to 2000, there might be few people who filed at 2000, if they get their labour cleared they will file for 140 and 485, then they can't issue the work permit since they r out of quota. that's why may be they retrogress to the year which no people remains in that year.
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cutie said:
If the matter is that simple then, I don't think most of us will be upset.. but the fact is nobody knows the motive behind this retrogression.. It could be because the administration wants much much more of our visa extension money to pay for deficit (like one of the posters said), or worst of are not even planning on giving us our GC... and want us to go back to our homeland..
But whatever the situation, I think that the congress should either take action or tell us what they really want to do with us... At least we can look for alternatives... eg canada or australia or even homeland on our own...
As far as I know USA is the only country that takes this loooong to process a PR... Other countries take a shorter time ( among these, the max i know is Australia, about 2 years) & are straight forward with their answers.. It is a yes or no in the begining itself... not after so many years...
And not to mention the visa money we spend!!!!! Nowhere do they ask this kind of fees!!
I'm sorry,, just venting out...
TampaBelle
Registered Users (C)
cutie said:
Your argument has two flaws -
1) They have a notation - "U" or unavailable - which is used when the quota for a year is over for a particular category / country. In fact EB3 category as a whole had no visa numbers available for the last couple of months.
So they dont have to invent a arbitrary date to put in the table.
2) The new year and the fresh Quota starts in October
The only sense to make out of the whole thing is only that they want to achieve FIFO based on PD for the GC process. During this time of fast approvals from the new applications under PERM and clearing of backlogs by BEC (thats a laugh but still), the only way they can implement FIFO is at the 485 stage.
Benefits of doing this -
1) new applicants for the GC process cannot use PERM to jump over people who have been waiting for 5 years (many still at the labour certification stage). The oldest applicants can look at some relief and fast processing once the their LCs are cleared.
2) The backlog at the 485 stage comes down drastically. Of course they dont count any cases which were put on the back burner as their PD does not meet the cut off criterion. While they cannot limit the number of applicants for LCs, they will now clear the LCs under PERM within 3-4 months and the 140 / 485 within 6 months once the entire process is streamlined.
Finally what is going to happen in the next 3-6 months ??
BECs will finish inputting the cases in the database and will start processing LCs according FIFO rule based on the PDs.
This will let the guys in control decide how many cases they want to approve at 140/485 stages and they will move the cut off date accordingly. Once this happens, we will not see any "retrogression" and the dates will only move forward / stay put.
Implications -
1) Maybe no 485 approvals for the next 3 months
2) based on the PD, a person can estimate the exact time when he/she would have visa number available. There are only so many cases at BECs (lets forget at the PERM approvals, as under this new scenario they can forget about 485 filing and approval for about 2-5 years, depending on which country / category they belong to). 300,000 is the number thrown about. 140,000 cases per year that means more than 2 years i.e. without the EB category / country issues. Chinese and Indians in EB3 category should see the time frame as more like 5-6 years if they have filed in 2004 / 2005).
3) Once you file for 485, you should have the approval within 6 months to 1 year. Compare that to about 3 years backlog at 485 stage at some of the USCIS centers before this ruckus started.
4) It will be uniformly better, if the BECs clear the backlogs and the annual quota for the visa numbers is increased. Increase in quota for visa numbers is unlikely to happen, if you ask me.
This my understanding and hope. Please take the above analysis of the situation with a pinch of salt and a concrete advice from your attorneys.
Any criticism of the above is welcome.