Outlook for FY2007

[sfmars]

245i

The 2002 and 2003 labors that are getting approved are reduction in recruitment labors.

The 2001 are regular permanent. The backlog centers start the recruitment process. Very big difference between the two tracks.

The same time number of people who filed traditional cases is 5-6 times less than RIR in general, and nobody said that BEC cleared all RIR cases, per my knowledge they continue to work with late RIR. If to take a look at the numbers of EB3 skilled workers for 2004 and 2005 FY, one can see that number of green cards obtained by 3 specific countries in 2005 (EB3 skilled workers) were 3 times higher than in 2004.

EB3 2004 2005

Mexico 4,988 11,844
Columbia 1,197 2,929
Brazil 2,549 6,227

As you know there were not retrogression in 2004 and 2005 except for India.
My point is that in 2005 FYI number of 245i approved greencard was more than in 2004. I guess that abovementioned countries got more green card in 2005 due to 245i, because they have the same numbers for EB1 and EB2.

If DOS and USCIS is looking at the BEC's statistic expecting bulk of approvals of 245i, I think by September 2007 they move backward cut off date for Mexico and move cut off retrogression dates forward for other countries, including India.

 

[posmd]

My experience

For the last few months people still didn't believe the vertical versus the horizontal spillover; even though department of state stated no more then 7% for India. No one believed it, even though it kept begin posted by posters over and over again.

Now, it looks like people aren't going to believe the "huge number of 245i cases" statement.

Keep in mind going through the historical trend of labor processing dates before backlog reduction centers; showed many states with regular permannet labors frozen at april 2001 and it was at that date for many years.

I recently got my Mid 2004 RIR labour approved. My lawyer says she was surprised since they were supposed to follow a FIFO policy and she personally had atleast 20 cases in 2001.

I am willing to bet many of those were 245(i) cases. I tend to follow the logic that once those cases move through the system later this year, we are going to see further retrogression not improvement. Truly a crappy scenario. This and perhaps next years quota will mostly be expended muddling through these applications.

The Labour Subs. if not a factor now will almost certainly play a role once people come to realise how bad the outlook really is and review their options.
If this nightmare scenario turns out to be reality. Lobbying ought to focus on adding visa numbers not permanently but to "compensate" for the 245(i) cases that were foisted upon the law abiding immigrant community. Otherwise this whole system can be construed as a disgrace to this country, which so vehemently argues for the rule law.

 

[sfmars]

I recently got my Mid 2004 RIR labour approved. My lawyer says she was surprised since they were supposed to follow a FIFO policy and she personally had atleast 20 cases in 2001.

I wonder if your lawyer received all 45 day letters for all cases of 2001 and responded positively ?

As for 245i, I believe that many of their companies, which they used to file LC, have annual revenue 10K-15K per year, it is going really hard for them to prove ability to pay on the I-140 step.

 

[posmd]

I wonder if your lawyer received all 45 day letters for all cases of 2001 and responded positively ?

As for 245i, I believe that many of their companies, which they used to file LC, have annual revenue 10K-15K per year, it is going really hard for them to prove ability to pay on the I-140 step.

My lawyer is a high powered DC based one. The only reason I mention this is her fees alone approach the annual revenue of those companies you mentioned.

She was refering to cases to which she had responded to 45 day letters. I however did not clarify with her whether they were RIR or traditional labour cases.

So I do not think your optimism is well placed. I like UN do not have faith in the BECs being that discerning in their deliberations. Now they just want to move those files onward.

 

[sfmars]

My lawyer is a high powered DC based one. The only reason I mention this is her fees alone approach the annual revenue of those companies you mentioned.

She was refering to cases to which she had responded to 45 day letters. I however did not clarify with her whether they were RIR or traditional labour cases.

So I do not think your optimism is well placed. I like UN do not have faith in the BECs being that discerning in their deliberations. Now they just want to move those files onward.

I did not say that 245i did not have money to pay lawyer's fee.
I just wanted to say that many of their compnies who filed their cases did everything to show minimum revenue to pay less taxes to IRS. If so it may be not good for them to respond for RFE regarding ability to pay.

I doubt that Intel/Microsoft/IBM/Amazon filed at least one 245i case.

As for lawyers, they all high powered and have very high rate.

PS: If you are not optimist what the purpose to stay here ?

 

[rucshaca]

Saras/All,

do we have any change in law which is in pipeline ? Last year, we are dying to have some laws passed and all ....what's up with all of them ?

any updates ....anything that if we can do.

 

[saras76]

Nothing yet ..

Saras/All,

do we have any change in law which is in pipeline ? Last year, we are dying to have some laws passed and all ....what's up with all of them ?

any updates ....anything that if we can do.

rucshaca,

As of this moment there is no relief in sight. Once the Novemeber elections are over there "may" be some sort push for an immigration bill. We should not count on it though. As things stand we need to be ready for a long wait (expecially if we are EB3).

regards,

saras

 

[gc_retrogress]

I guess people are applying using these sub labors in the market that are as old as 1998.

The only thing these companies have to do is get some one hitched onto AC21 once they file 2 and 3 stage together move them to their sister company. Then revoke I-140 and reuse the labor.

That would mean that the same labor can used to file all 700 cases for a quarter.

Labor sub has to be stopped. We cannot expect any laws to remove EB retrogression. Atleast if they stop labor sub we should be fine. If that effects someone...that someone should also know that others waiting in FIFO Q will be suffering too.

I heard they were going to implement something that would make the company file I-140 within 45 days of approval. Is that in place already? If so does that stop labor subs?

one person i know came to US in 2002 and got 1998 EB3 sub-labor in june 2005 and got GC in 3 months, here how can USCIS approve GC even the person is not when this labor filed in 1998
one person is still waiting for 485 approval , came here to US in 1997, applied EB3 in Dec 2001. very bad to him

 

[idog]

Too quick and smart

I guess people are applying using these sub labors in the market that are as old as 1998.

The only thing these companies have to do is get some one hitched onto AC21 once they file 2 and 3 stage together move them to their sister company. Then revoke I-140 and reuse the labor.

That would mean that the same labor can used to file all 700 cases for a quarter.

Labor sub has to be stopped. We cannot expect any laws to remove EB retrogression. Atleast if they stop labor sub we should be fine. If that effects someone...that someone should also know that others waiting in FIFO Q will be suffering too.

I heard they were going to implement something that would make the company file I-140 within 45 days of approval. Is that in place already? If so does that stop labor subs?

I met this guy in Starbucks today. He came in Oct 1st, 2006. Just
filed I-140 and 485 using the sub labour Aug 1999. This includes
his spouse and three children. This goes on...

 

[masala dosa]

I met this guy in Starbucks today. He came in Oct 1st, 2006. Just
filed I-140 and 485 using the sub labour Aug 1999. This includes
his spouse and three children. This goes on...

Fuck screw that...

 

[posmd]

Capitalism Trumps fairness in the good old USA

Fuck screw that...

I suppose from a philosophical perspective we are supposed to say fair enough since this is EB based immigration. The employer rules and so it is his/her choice. Given the rampant abuse and such glaring examples as this and further as we all know the "bartering" of these labours in employer/employee negotiations (to put it diplomatically) this is a truly vexing problem and surely was not the intended outcome, Unfortunately this practice will continue as long as retrogression persists, or until the authorities wise up and put a halt to it. Fair or otherwise, thats life in the good old USA.

 

[bigbang2001]

Again this is an issue specific to India. USCIS is likely aware of these issue and that is likely the reason they pushed for making Labor substitution illegal and file for 140 within a specified period of time. There are several scruplous companies who do this. Late year someone I know whose H1 was reaching 6the year limit was looking Sub labor and willing to pay 30K

I hope the proposed law becomes reality so at least the sub labor buy/sell market would collapse.

I met this guy in Starbucks today. He came in Oct 1st, 2006. Just
filed I-140 and 485 using the sub labour Aug 1999. This includes
his spouse and three children. This goes on...

 

[sfmars]

Something to feed into your theory:

What I have seen with 245i cases:

Print shop sponsoring printer
Seafood restaurant sponsoring 11 people
Indian restaurant sponsoring cooks
welding company sponsoring welder
Small company that makes wigs
Hair salon
company that plants flowers
bed and breakfast
Convenience store
Gas station
jewellery store
non profit jazz school
Karate school
wholesale distributor of indian packaged foods
Travel agency
Money transfer store

Above were all 245i cases where there was some friendship/relationship to the person being sponsored. All very small companies with ability to pay issues.

One of those never went over $15,000 in revenue in any particular year.

All of them approved. Some of the people were in removal proceedings; especially the people who belonged to NSEER countries. Their attornies, employers/ myself did everything possible to get them approved due to the huge stakes involved.

A few of those people still haven't gotten their 245i labors approved. After they were safe by filing 245i labors; they processed one in reduction in recruitment so they could file 140/485. They used those backlog labors as 245i protection. (note; people who get substituted onto those labors don't enjoy 245i protection but do get the priority date for standing in line.). There is too much at stake in the 245i cases for them to not get approved.

Two of those people who are using 245i haven't gotten backlog labors approved; they filed on reduction in recruitment labors.

Those cases which you are refering probably were not from BEC,
So and number of them was limited. It could be not a problem for INS to approve couple of hundred 245i cases when retrogression did not present.

The situation can be completely different if such type of cases will be 50K,
in this case USCIS can be not so liberal to them.

In addition to their processing, there is I485 with possible background check, where they have to prove that they did not violate the law and paid taxes,
or you want to say that they are completely clean since they filed 245i labor ?

 

[sfmars]

I hate to say this but many people have gotten over the "denial stage" and are now in "recovery phase".

Looks like you are still in "denial stage".

If it makes you feel better or sleep better to think all the backlog cases are going to get denied or 140 is going to get denied and they won't impact the current process then so be it.

However, keep in mind current retrogression is not based on how many labors might get approved. It is based on I-140's pending and approved and their priority dates current in the system.

To each his own.

DOS strategy regarding retrogression cut off dates and their brief reports in their recent bulletins regarding EB visas clear showed that those dates do not reflect realities and based on their "future expectations"

I did not say that all rest of BEC cases will be denied. By the way BECs did not finish to clear even RIR cases (PD 2003/2004/2005) yet. Do you really know how many 245i case (PD < May 2001) is accumulated at both BECs ?
245i from BECs will impact but not so dramaticaly as some people think.
The current cut off retrogession dates are based not on the accurate numbers but on the "DOS anticipation" of the future number of approved cases with PD < May 2001.

I just wanted to say that real impact depends on many factors:
1. accurate number of cases in BEC with PD < May 2001
2. geographical applicants birth of place
3. sponsor's companies ability to pay.
4. others

If to take into account all factors may be picture will be not so hopeless.

 

[envision]

Those cases which you are refering probably were not from BEC,
So and number of them was limited. It could be not a problem for INS to approve couple of hundred 245i cases when retrogression did not present.

The situation can be completely different if such type of cases will be 50K,
in this case USCIS can be not so liberal to them.

In addition to their processing, there is I485 with possible background check, where they have to prove that they did not violate the law and paid taxes,
or you want to say that they are completely clean since they filed 245i labor ?

Under 245i no one has to prove they did not violate the law and did not pay taxes . It's common knowledge from the very beginning, because one's status it required on all the forms. ( labor certification, I140, I485 and I485A)They do have to pay a $1,000 penalty fee in addition to the regular AOS fees though .

 

[Jackolantern]

OK. How do you justify a greencard holder waiting five to six years to bring their spouse to USA?

I already said I fully support spouse and child immigration. Just get rid of the brother/sister/etc., and expand the EB quotas instead so they can take advantage of that if they're qualified.

Point system would never work. If DOL/USCIS based it on demand professions, it would turn the greencard upside/down. Cooks, nurses, auto sales people would get in.

Demand should not be evaluated just on absolute numbers wanted, it should be considered relative to the supply. If there are only 1000 nuclear scientists in the country and you want to increase that number by 50%, they should also be treated as a high demand profession and should get high points accordingly. Unless there is such a huge supply of those scientists wanting to enter the US in which case you'd be more strict about giving them points.

People who want this type of system in place; think their skills would be the ones that would be part of the quota system. However, according to DOL, the preference seems to be in unskilled side.

I already qualify under the points systems of other developed countries, so if I wouldn't qualify for the US under a points system, I can live with that ... as long as they can give me the yes/no in a short and predictable amount of time.

If it wasn't subject to per country limits and it was point system, how many people do you think would apply? It would take them years to just get through the applications?

If the points system is properly documented, most people would be able to derive a good estimate of their own score and most who don't qualify would not bother to spend the time and money to apply. So the USCIS wouldn't be flooded with millions of excess applications.

Of course, any such points system has to be well-designed or it won't necessarily be any better than what is there now.

 

[saras76]

No point in this arguement ..

DOS strategy regarding retrogression cut off dates and their brief reports in their recent bulletins regarding EB visas clear showed that those dates do not reflect realities and based on their "future expectations"

I did not say that all rest of BEC cases will be denied. By the way BECs did not finish to clear even RIR cases (PD 2003/2004/2005) yet. Do you really know how many 245i case (PD < May 2001) is accumulated at both BECs ?
245i from BECs will impact but not so dramaticaly as some people think.
The current cut off retrogession dates are based not on the accurate numbers but on the "DOS anticipation" of the future number of approved cases with PD < May 2001.

I just wanted to say that real impact depends on many factors:
1. accurate number of cases in BEC with PD < May 2001
2. geographical applicants birth of place
3. sponsor's companies ability to pay.
4. others

If to take into account all factors may be picture will be not so hopeless.

sfmars,

I agree with a lot of what you have said regarding the true "data" that the current retrogression is based on. I am of the opinion that the current retro is not based entirely on hard data. I believe that there is a fair amount of guesstimation going on. The problem is that there is no transparency in this system and hence there will never be any satisfactory answer to any of our questions. Time and again the DOL and USCIS have bent the rules or interpreted them in their own way. Heck, most of the Service Centers do not follow the same procedures. I clearly remember that in 04-05 there were all sorts of things going on in different Service Centers. Some were approving cases concurrently, others were not. Some were following FIFO, others were approving randomly. How can we even try to make any sense of this process. A lot of people claim to "know" the system but my experience has proven time and again that everyone has their own theories and they justify/adjust them when contrary things start happening. Case in point, some members claimed in the past that EB3 World would not move beyond April 01 for years and when it did they adjusted their theory by stating that the DOS is allocating visas in different ways. If in the near future India EB3 does move beyond April '01, you will find another adjusted theory doing the rounds. If it doesn't move or goes back further there will be the "I told you so" emails. Its just a silly pattern ...

Theories or no theories we are stuck and things are not getting any better. I have stopped thinking about the reasons for this mess because there is no way to know the exact reasons and even if we knew, it would not change anything. This mess will sort itself out eventually. We should not even try to estimate the time line at this point. No one on this forum knows because if they did, they would not be here (would they?)

cheers,

saras

 

[gc_retrogress]

Maybe there are so many labor substitutions out there in USCIS with pending I-485 applns. I mean maybe there are 1998 2000 labors subs cases that are hogging these visas. It can be possible. UN and zzzz4zzzz explained one such case which got GC approval.

Do not get one me...I was only suggesting....

sfmars,

I agree with a lot of what you have said regarding the true "data" that the current retrogression is based on. I am of the opinion that the current retro is not based entirely on hard data. I believe that there is a fair amount of guesstimation going on. The problem is that there is no transparency in this system and hence there will never be any satisfactory answer to any of our questions. Time and again the DOL and USCIS have bent the rules or interpreted them in their own way. Heck, most of the Service Centers do not follow the same procedures. I clearly remember that in 04-05 there were all sorts of things going on in different Service Centers. Some were approving cases concurrently, others were not. Some were following FIFO, others were approving randomly. How can we even try to make any sense of this process. A lot of people claim to "know" the system but my experience has proven time and again that everyone has their own theories and they justify/adjust them when contrary things start happening. Case in point, some members claimed in the past that EB3 World would not move beyond April 01 for years and when it did they adjusted their theory by stating that the DOS is allocating visas in different ways. If in the near future India EB3 does move beyond April '01, you will find another adjusted theory doing the rounds. If it doesn't move or goes back further there will be the "I told you so" emails. Its just a silly pattern ...

Theories or no theories we are stuck and things are not getting any better. I have stopped thinking about the reasons for this mess because there is no way to know the exact reasons and even if we knew, it would not change anything. This mess will sort itself out eventually. We should not even try to estimate the time line at this point. No one on this forum knows because if they did, they would not be here (would they?)

cheers,

saras

 

[saras76]

Ready to accept any theory ...

Maybe there are so many labor substitutions out there in USCIS with pending I-485 applns. I mean maybe there are 1998 2000 labors subs cases that are hogging these visas. It can be possible. UN and zzzz4zzzz explained one such case which got GC approval.

Do not get one me...I was only suggesting....

gc_retrogress,

I am sure there are a bunch of old PDs being sold in the market these days. I am not trying to present any theories or dispute other people's assertions. At this point I am ready to believe any theory out there because it makes no difference to our situation. The only thing I am keeping an eye on is immigration reform in the form of a bill. That seems like the only solution. Rest of it is a waste of time for all of us.

regards,

saras

 

[gc_retrogress]

A bill that stops labor subs may help.

Maybe labor subs can provide immigrant visa but that should be a later date. Only then can there be a FIFO