Outlook for FY2007

[sfmars]

Schedule A is Unavailable

The best thing for EB3 people that Sch. A is unavailable in December 2006.
This is the key point for people to expect immigration relief.

At least the unavailability of Sch A will stimulate Senate and Congress to do something for employment based immigrants and especially for EB3.

The December 2006 bulletin is more positive than negative.

 

[santa4u]

It looks like they are moving EB2 on a week by week basis now!

INDIA EB2 moved from 01JAN03 to 08JAN03
INDA EB3 stuck at 22APR01
Sch A - went Unavailable...

------------------------

From this bulletin, it looks like for this calendar year...USCIS is planning to move (based on extrapolation),

INDIA EB2 - 10 weeks...2 more months...until Sep 07
INDIA EB3 - stuck at 22 APR01 or may go to 01MAY01....until Sep 07 (until labor backlog clears up)

 

[gc_tx_2003]

how is the dec 06 bulletin positive ?

what really is happening.

As far as I know there are 226K family and 140K emp visas avl.

of which EB1, Eb2, and EB3 will have 40 K each.

with EB1 current, and historic levels of consumption, there should be 10K visas surplus.

with EB2 in. ch consuming 14% that is 5600, and EB2 ROW being current, there is remaining 35K of which atleast 10K should be surplus.

with these 20K visas, should the EB2 IN ( oversubscribed not move more than just 1 week a month ) ? Of course this is assuming, that the surplus is leveled every quarter, instead of waiting until the end of the year.

Or, is this surplus going to EB3 ROW for the one month move ? that is hard to believe., cuz I would think EB3 ROW will move a month just by its own monthly limit of 40K - 12 k(4 retro countries) = 28 K / 12 ( per month ) visas.

THE ONE LAST THING IS THAT

Does these excess in employment EB1 and EB2 , actually going to family categories in some way ?

Can someone explain me the INA section 202 and 203, particularly INA section 202 ( e )

 

[sfmars]

how is the dec 06 bulletin positive ?

what really is happening.

As far as I know there are 226K family and 140K emp visas avl.

of which EB1, Eb2, and EB3 will have 40 K each.

with EB1 current, and historic levels of consumption, there should be 10K visas surplus.

with EB2 in. ch consuming 14% that is 5600, and EB2 ROW being current, there is remaining 35K of which atleast 10K should be surplus.

with these 20K visas, should the EB2 IN ( oversubscribed not move more than just 1 week a month ) ? Of course this is assuming, that the surplus is leveled every quarter, instead of waiting until the end of the year.

Or, is this surplus going to EB3 ROW for the one month move ? that is hard to believe., cuz I would think EB3 ROW will move a month just by its own monthly limit of 40K - 12 k(4 retro countries) = 28 K / 12 ( per month ) visas.

THE ONE LAST THING IS THAT

Does these excess in employment EB1 and EB2 , actually going to family categories in some way ?

Can someone explain me the INA section 202 and 203, particularly INA section 202 ( e )

There is no logic and right analysis in the current DOS actions, they work based on the worst anticipations and prediction of the future potential flood of EB visa applicants. The same time you are right they have available visas, but they think what if in Dec/Jan 2006 both BECs clear all back logs, in this case they will be not able to be in limit of 27% issued visas (per quarter).

If to take a look at the bulletin one can see that EB3 cut off dates for China and Phillippines the same 08/01/2002 which is nonsense. It looks like that big number of EB3 China people applied in EB1 and EB2 category.

 

[neocor]

The best thing for EB3 people that Sch. A is unavailable in December 2006.
This is the key point for people to expect immigration relief.

At least the unavailability of Sch A will stimulate Senate and Congress to do something for employment based immigrants and especially for EB3.

The December 2006 bulletin is more positive than negative.

This is not good news. This is really bad news. Now Schedule A workers will get first shot at any available Visa numbers (irrespective of PD). And if anything remains after that will be thrown at rest of the EB3 folks to scavange. The sch A numbers themselves are so huge that EB3 folks are not going to get anything for atleast 7-8 years now.
Until now Sch A wrokers were given separate quota, now they will eat (no grab) from the EB3.
As if things are not getting worse this had to happen.

There is one good thing though. The Labor Sub people in EB3 are also screwed now.

neo

 

[USCIS_GC_APPRO]

I am looking for outlook2007

I didn't find any where. Did you guys found any clues?

 

[gc_tx_2003]

the cut off movement has nothing to do with the backlog centers . PLEASE NOTE this is apart from the backlog centers THIS IS THE CURRENT 485 BACKLOGS ALONE !!!!! they move it based on how many of the applied 485s are approvable for the month. if there are more than X no of visas for the month , they put a cutoff date , if there are more than ( X times the remanining number of months ) then they call it UNAVAILABLE.

and if that backlog is negligible, then it is current.

The question is what that number X is -- based on the movements that X looks like 2800 / 12 = close to 220, which is 110 primary visas / month.

however, at some point there needs to be spillover, as EB1 and EB2 are current in most categories. In that sense, that X can go as high as 5K or 10K visas instead of just 110 / mo.

if those excess visas are going to EB2 india/china.

Now, I am fearing that it is all based on what the language in INA 202, and 203 are. I feel like these excess numbers are going to FAMILY based.

Saras,
Can u comment , is this a possibility ?


If someone can clearly tell, how these sections allocate visa numbers, then we will know. , but clearly IT IS NOT THE ANTICIPATED labor clearance from the backlog centers.,

IF THAT WERE TO ADD, the situation could get much worse.

 

[sfmars]

the cut off movement has nothing to do with the backlog centers . PLEASE NOTE this is apart from the backlog centers THIS IS THE CURRENT 485 BACKLOGS ALONE !!!!! they move it based on how many of the applied 485s are approvable for the month. if there are more than X no of visas for the month , they put a cutoff date , if there are more than ( X times the remanining number of months ) then they call it UNAVAILABLE.

and if that backlog is negligible, then it is current.

The question is what that number X is -- based on the movements that X looks like 2800 / 12 = close to 220, which is 110 primary visas / month.

however, at some point there needs to be spillover, as EB1 and EB2 are current in most categories. In that sense, that X can go as high as 5K or 10K visas instead of just 110 / mo.

if those excess visas are going to EB2 india/china.

Now, I am fearing that it is all based on what the language in INA 202, and 203 are. I feel like these excess numbers are going to FAMILY based.

Saras,
Can u comment , is this a possibility ?


If someone can clearly tell, how these sections allocate visa numbers, then we will know. , but clearly IT IS NOT THE ANTICIPATED labor clearance from the backlog centers.,

IF THAT WERE TO ADD, the situation could get much worse.

gc_tx_2003,

It looks like you do not have enough information to make right judgements,
therefore read September 2006 bulletin

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3009.html

In the section D you will find the words:

"It should be noted that the Department of Labor expects to complete its backlog reduction effort during FY-2007. This effort will result in tens of thousands of cases, including many with very early priority dates, becoming eligible for processing at CIS Offices."

It is pure proof that DOS works based on the prediction and expectations of the output from BECs.

 

[gc_tx_2003]

sfmars,

you got it completely wrong.

they are talking about the backlog elimination efforts at the USCIS headed by Gonzalez, not the DOL labor certification backlogs.

IN the recent report, available in the immigration-law.com site, USCIS has given updates on the results of the backlog reduction efforts.

THESE CUTOFF DATES HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE DALLAS AND PHILY BEC's

I would like to believe they are including the BEC projections in to moving these dates also, but it is not the case.

But as an when the dates get advanced , they will be only based on the 485 applications already applied, and as the dates advance, more apps will enter the system ( cuz of the BECs clearing labors ), and it will make it much worse.

 

[sfmars]

Department of Labor

sfmars,

you got it completely wrong.

they are talking about the backlog elimination efforts at the USCIS headed by Gonzalez, not the DOL labor certification backlogs.

IN the recent report, available in the immigration-law.com site, USCIS has given updates on the results of the backlog reduction efforts.

THESE CUTOFF DATES HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE DALLAS AND PHILY BEC's

I would like to believe they are including the BEC projections in to moving these dates also, but it is not the case.

But as an when the dates get advanced , they will be only based on the 485 applications already applied, and as the dates advance, more apps will enter the system ( cuz of the BECs clearing labors ), and it will make it much worse.

Just read what I quoted (exact words of the DOS) it says Department of Labor , but not USCIS.

 

[saras76]

Debate ...

Just read what I quoted (exact words of the DOS) it says Department of Labor , but not USCIS.

Guys and Gals,

This debate about whether the current retro is based purely on currently pending 140/485s with USCIS or if its a result of projected high demand by the DOL has been raging on for a while. I tend to think that it is more likely a mixture of both but I am leaning more towards "speculation of huge demand". If most of the cases are still stuck in the BECs and will be cleared by the end of FY'07 and I know for a fact that a lot of 01,02 PDs got approved in '04 when the centers were approving cases in 6-9 months then its hard to imagine that pending 140/485s are causing ALL the current delays in EB3. There are a lot of pending 140s/485s in USCIS but what is causing the severe retro is the projected demand that is also being used as a major factor in the calculations. The DOS is probably taking the oldest pending PD in each category, adding the speculation of huge demand onto it and then determining the dates. India EB3 is hence suffering because there are still old PDs out there and the demand has always been huge and is anticipated to get worse.

It is a well known fact that the DOL does not have any clue about the nationality of the labors that are stuck in the BECs, they also have no way to know the number of applicants that have abanonded the process and moved onto PERM. All they know is that 300K cases are in the BECs and they are basing all projections and guidelines on this number. How can it be accurate?

I personally forsee atleast another year of very little movement because the DOS is hesitant of moving the dates till the BECs go thru the 300k cases. Until the DOS gets assurance from the DOL they will base all their decisions on the 300k number. If the final result is that a lot of the 300K labors make it to the 140/485 stage then we might as well forget about any movement for several years.

Anyway, an immigration bill seems like the only way to tackle this issue. I am hopeful that something will pass in '07.

regards,

saras

 

[GCInThisLife]

I do not necessarily agree that DOS cut of dates are based on 300K in backlog for the same reason i.e., DOS has no clue. In fact they clearly mention in every bulletin that it receives chronological order of PDs and cut off date would the PD of first applicant who couldn't make the cut. So, I am still sticking to the analogy/theory I posed last month in same thread
http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=1530383#post1530383

Guys and Gals,

This debate about whether the current retro is based purely on currently pending 140/485s with USCIS or if its a result of projected high demand by the DOL has been raging on for a while. I tend to think that it is more likely a mixture of both but I am leaning more towards "speculation of huge demand". If most of the cases are still stuck in the BECs and will be cleared by the end of FY'07 and I know for a fact that a lot of 01,02 PDs got approved in '04 when the centers were approving cases in 6-9 months then its hard to imagine that pending 140/485s are causing ALL the current delays in EB3. There are a lot of pending 140s/485s in USCIS but what is causing the severe retro is the projected demand that is also being used as a major factor in the calculations. The DOS is probably taking the oldest pending PD in each category, adding the speculation of huge demand onto it and then determining the dates. India EB3 is hence suffering because there are still old PDs out there and the demand has always been huge and is anticipated to get worse.

It is a well known fact that the DOL does not have any clue about the nationality of the labors that are stuck in the BECs, they also have no way to know the number of applicants that have abanonded the process and moved onto PERM. All they know is that 300K cases are in the BECs and they are basing all projections and guidelines on this number. How can it be accurate?

I personally forsee atleast another year of very little movement because the DOS is hesitant of moving the dates till the BECs go thru the 300k cases. Until the DOS gets assurance from the DOL they will base all their decisions on the 300k number. If the final result is that a lot of the 300K labors make it to the 140/485 stage then we might as well forget about any movement for several years.

Anyway, an immigration bill seems like the only way to tackle this issue. I am hopeful that something will pass in '07.

regards,

saras

 

[saras76]

Yes ... but ...

I do not necessarily agree that DOS cut of dates are based on 300K in backlog for the same reason i.e., DOS has no clue. In fact they clearly mention in every bulletin that it receives chronological order of PDs and cut off date would the PD of first applicant who couldn't make the cut. So, I am still sticking to the analogy/theory I posed last month in same thread
http://boards.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?p=1530383#post1530383

GCInThisLife,

Your explaination may be right but we are talking about a system that throws back dates to 1998 for some categories, keeps moving dates back and forth for some categories, follows and implements laws differently at different times and above all could not care less about any policy. To expect some level of sense and logic from them amounts to giving them to much credit. That is my personal belief.

All the Service Centers are nicely within the 6 month processing period. So far as DOS, DOL and USCIS are concerend, everyones job is done and they are probably celebrating. Infact we are not even considered backlogged because retrogressed cases are not considered backlogged. So we aren't even a problem really. The immigration system has never been better for most people. To bad we are not among them .. oh well

regards,

saras

 

[gc_tx_2003]

saras,

if the actual number of visas avl each month is 2800/12 ( that is just 110 primary applicants ), so no wonder EB2 india/ china or EB3 ( I/C/M/P ) is moving very very slow a few days. at this pace it does not matter EB2/EB3
-- i think we have very vague chances of getting a GC, and hence should look for meaningful other opportunities.

Now I have a very bad feeling about this.

1. USCIS DID Not fill up all the 140 K visas last year .

2. There was not much of an excess last yr as EB1 was also retro.., and hence the demand was just up to fill 140 K., and whatever excess was there
it went to EB3 ROW / SCH A

3. this yr, as EB1 and EB2 Row is current, there should definitely be excess,
and where will it go, SO FAR In the first 3 months, it seems to have just been the 220 visas / mo, allocated.

4. The excess, if any may be coming to either EB3 Row or EB2 india, and eventually to EB3 India in the coming months.

5. the excess is going to family based.

I am now thinking probably 5 is happening.

I read thru INA 202 and 203, just could not figure out how the distribution works.

is AILA or someone asking DOS how this works.

we are not asking when will i get GC, we are just asking how the 140 k / yr gets distributed, with varying demands from categories and countries.

I am not sure why this should be a stupid secret.

if we know, we can make up our minds

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

If you are waiting on EB from India, the words "execess" OR "unused" OR "spillover" has no meaning. Please desist from using these words and their synonyms anymore. No new law will be passed until the employers themselves lobby for immigration and get they want. Until that time they will use all the guys waiting for gc to train younger guys in India so that when we giveup and go they can bring youth here. This cycle shall continue.

Nobody wants us to makeup minds, weak hearts will continue to believe what we want and others move on. Until we are retrogressed we think of being current only to find to be disposed to the outer spaces of namecheck later.

 

[gc_tx_2003]

agreed. the corporates and the lawyers want the system this way.

no one is questioning that. , all that we are looking for is not to get burnt in this stupid process.

all that I want to know is "the rationale behind the distribution of the 140 k visas"

unless we know -- the current demand from ROW is captruing all the 34K visas, in EB2 out of the 40K allowed, and similarly in EB1 and EB3,

I do not think it is unreasonable to know how the distribution works.

atlast, i have paid taxes for 10 years, invested time and money in to this process, and more importantly have considered this thing in many decisions.
I believe this is something that demands atleast " how it works "

atlast, what are organisations like AILA are for ???

 

[indian_gc_ocean]

gc_tx_2003,
As you know, India gets 2800 visas/year/category in every year. I would think USCIS cannot consume all the visas at one shot and make a category unavailable for the whole year. So it is upto USCIS move the PDs such a way that both the old PDs who are current and waiting for months and the new PDs who are close to being current are hopeful of approved. In the meantime it is upto the USCIS to approve the cases they like.

Looking at the LC, I140 and 485 approvals over the recent two years, it appears to me that they like fulltime employees who have US advanced degrees while making an approval decision. Ability to pay, namecheck, blah, blah..... are usually effecting people who are consulting. In short, if you or your employer is consulting be prepared for a rough unpredictable ride at every stage.

 

[gc_tx_2003]

As you know, India gets 2800 visas /year in every year. I would think USCIS cannot consume all the visas at one shot and make a category unavailable for the whole.

>>>>> in Apr 2006-June 2006, that is exactly what they did, they blindly moved the dates by 6 months, just to find there was a deluge of EB2 IN applications that became approvable ( already in the 485 Q), as no EB2 india was able to file after sep 2005 due to retro. , and hence immediately became unavailable for the rest of the year until oct 2006.

So it is upto USCIS move the PDs such a way that old PDs whoare current waiting for manoths and the new PDs who are close to being current are hopeful of approved. In the meantime it is upto the USCIS to approve the cases they like.

>> It is true that they are trying to guess the demand as closely as possible, and it might very well be that at steady state there could just be 1-2 weeks worth of priority date movement in the EB2/3 cat.., for the number of visas avl per month ( if it is 2800/12).

if we count on only those 200+ visas, for someone that applies in EB2 Jan 2007, based on the continous applications at various stages, it will be about 8-16 years before that app could be current.

so, one can pretty much diverge attention to the other avenues.

In all essense, the only hope is the spillover from the unused visas in EB1, and EB2 ROW to spill over to the oversubscribed countries Eb2 in / ch and EB3 in /ch/ mx/ph

>> excess visas spillover ( that is what AC 21 is for ) and legislation are the only way to have some kind of mitigation.

Looking at the LC, I140 and 485 approvals over the recent two years, it appears to me that they like fulltime employees who have US advanced degrees while making the approval decision.

>> In my case atleast, my US advanced master's degree seemed to be of no extra help, an indian masters of some combination, or bach plus exp seems to have worked as well. And it did not matter if the comp was small or big. It was whether there was even a single layoff in the department, public loss statements, etc that mattered. In general , the permanent kind of jobs people had to wrestle with the rigid job description, and the buereucracies. In fact, I saw small consulting companies that did not have layoffs successfully churn our labors in 2001, and 2002 while the economy was slow and there were a lot of layoffs in the industry, while there were rejects for apps from Microsoft and oracle. Infact Intel and oracle stopped all new LCs in 2001-2003 timeframe.

At the i-140 stage the question is ability to pay, and again it does not matter small or big, as long as there is proof to pay what is in the LC.

At 485, it much becomes like if it is a bonafide app - whether it is a family run company with close ties to the beneficiary, would the beneficiary actually work for the company etc...,

again, it does not matter about whether it is consulting or not, as long as they comply to the requirements, and flexible.

it is also true that the consulting companies are misusing labor subs etc --> the good thing is they are being closely looked at now.

 

[BECsufferer]

FY2007 outlook

The past data when trended indicates wait period for average EB2 candidate is slightly lower than 4 years. This wait period has been stable for 2006, and based on given numbers their is no possibility for wait period to reduce from 4 years.

So hang in their as do I ... every month. If you feel disappointed, remember I am in same boat and has been sucking it up so far!

 

[bigbang2001]

You mean average EB-2 from India.

The past data when trended indicates wait period for average EB2 candidate is slightly lower than 4 years. This wait period has been stable for 2006, and based on given numbers their is no possibility for wait period to reduce from 4 years.

So hang in their as do I ... every month. If you feel disappointed, remember I am in same boat and has been sucking it up so far!