Thanks @Britsimon for the YouTube live. Have to say a little nervous now with OC20XX… hopefully we’ll scrape in, especially after the 2021 experience.
OC DV lottery 2024
- Thread starter Rk2022
- Start date
Spam420
New Member
Thanks @Britsimon for the breakdown video, it is very much appreciated 
. Now unsure how to feel with my case of OC12XX with the big increase in selectees in Oceania region.
. Now unsure how to feel with my case of OC12XX with the big increase in selectees in Oceania region.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Thanks @Britsimon for the breakdown video, it is very much appreciated
12XX is clearly safe.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I have been mulling over the massive increase in selectees in OC region. The odd thing that stands out is the massive increase in selectees from Fiji, and I'm wondering what happened to cause that.
Up until DV2023, Fiji tended to get around the same (or less) of the selected numbers as compared to Australia. Then in DV2023 Fiji suddenly got a massive increase in selectees as compared to Australia. Chart below shows what I mean.
If we look at selectees from Australia, Fiji and NZ we can see that Aus/NZ have stayed roughly proportionate. Australia takes 3 to 4 times the selectees of NZ roughly. That means 3 to 4 times the entries.
But now look at Fiji compared to the other two countries. The increase in Fiji selectees happened in DV2023 and DV2024.
Why? What caused that? Are there now organizations that have sprung up in the last two entry periods to help/encourage people in Fiji to enter the lottery?
Anyone have any ideas?
Up until DV2023, Fiji tended to get around the same (or less) of the selected numbers as compared to Australia. Then in DV2023 Fiji suddenly got a massive increase in selectees as compared to Australia. Chart below shows what I mean.
If we look at selectees from Australia, Fiji and NZ we can see that Aus/NZ have stayed roughly proportionate. Australia takes 3 to 4 times the selectees of NZ roughly. That means 3 to 4 times the entries.
But now look at Fiji compared to the other two countries. The increase in Fiji selectees happened in DV2023 and DV2024.
Why? What caused that? Are there now organizations that have sprung up in the last two entry periods to help/encourage people in Fiji to enter the lottery?
Anyone have any ideas?
| Year | Australia | Fiji | NZ | Aus-Fiji | NZ - Fiji | Aus-NZ |
2024 | 795 | 2936 | 256 | 27 | 9 | 311 |
2023 | 461 | 1718 | 173 | 27 | 10 | 266 |
2022 | 1031 | 950 | 248 | 109 | 26 | 416 |
2021 | 1130 | 1087 | 360 | 104 | 33 | 314 |
2020 | 647 | 435 | 181 | 149 | 42 | 357 |
2019 | 777 | 396 | 242 | 196 | 61 | 321 |
@Britsimon Earlier this year Australia announced a lottery for Pacific Engagement. This was also published in a Fijian national paper (it’s not letting me post links). Could that have increased awareness of DV2024?
Could it be that passport requirement was not a must for dv2024 applications caused this surge of applications(22,185,619 entries for dv2024 compared to 9,570,291 qualified entries for dv2023). May be people in some countries who do not usually keep passports ready also applied in large numbers. May be that could be the reason for large increases from places like Tonga and Fiji in OC? The same reason could also have prompted the US Govt to select more people, presuming many who applied and were selected would not end up getting a passport in the end.
In Fiji, the DV Lottery program was promoted over national radios and TV. With the immense success of selectees migrating in the previous years, people naturally want to give it a shot. Fiji is now seeing an increase in young people who are more educated and married with children. More qualified entries make the population sample an ideal one for random selection.
Fiji media has been promoting DV lottery in the past as well but for some reason last year it was popularized as a better opportunity than New Zealand pacific access lottery which is why many people entered the 2024 program
Fiji selectee numbers - my take on it as a Fijian.
There are some very easy explanations to this:
1. Political crisis - Fiji saw the election that has been a turning point for many people. The current prime minister is the same one who caused Coup and rampage in the 1980s and set an uproar of racial tensions in the country. During that time many people of Indian descent migrated to US, New Zealand and Australia. We are only seeing a repeat of history here with Indofijians wanting to leave Fiji in fear of being subject of hate crimes which is already rising in Fiji. Statistically, immigrant or work visa applications from Fijians of IndoFijian descent has seen record numbers in Australia and New Zealand. Political crisis has been a leading factor last year why people are finding an exit strategy.
2. More educated people who are willing to marry and have children creating an ideal pool of qualified entries. Fiji has had a healthy population growth and with the reason stated in (1), people are leaning towards exiting Fiji. DV lottery and NZ pacific access lottery has been two major opportunities.
3. Promotion - with the political climate in Fiji, Media in Fiji colorfully promoted DV lottery program and it’s success over radio stations, national tv and newspapers. Some even say it was purposefully done to influence people IndoFijian nationals to apply. It is a sensitive subject in Fiji.
Other countries like Tonga, Solomon Islands all have more access education and often come to study at University of South Pacific which is located in Fiji. They get scholarships to study in Fiji and return to their home country exposed to DV promotions in Fiji. This is just in theory from speaking to several locals from different pacific islands.
There are some very easy explanations to this:
1. Political crisis - Fiji saw the election that has been a turning point for many people. The current prime minister is the same one who caused Coup and rampage in the 1980s and set an uproar of racial tensions in the country. During that time many people of Indian descent migrated to US, New Zealand and Australia. We are only seeing a repeat of history here with Indofijians wanting to leave Fiji in fear of being subject of hate crimes which is already rising in Fiji. Statistically, immigrant or work visa applications from Fijians of IndoFijian descent has seen record numbers in Australia and New Zealand. Political crisis has been a leading factor last year why people are finding an exit strategy.
2. More educated people who are willing to marry and have children creating an ideal pool of qualified entries. Fiji has had a healthy population growth and with the reason stated in (1), people are leaning towards exiting Fiji. DV lottery and NZ pacific access lottery has been two major opportunities.
3. Promotion - with the political climate in Fiji, Media in Fiji colorfully promoted DV lottery program and it’s success over radio stations, national tv and newspapers. Some even say it was purposefully done to influence people IndoFijian nationals to apply. It is a sensitive subject in Fiji.
Other countries like Tonga, Solomon Islands all have more access education and often come to study at University of South Pacific which is located in Fiji. They get scholarships to study in Fiji and return to their home country exposed to DV promotions in Fiji. This is just in theory from speaking to several locals from different pacific islands.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Interesting. I wonder who is paying for the promotion, or what the motivation is. It's lasted two years.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The passport requirement was only in force for a couple of entry periods, so we can see it didn't cause a reduction when it was introduced, and therefor shouldn't be the reason when it was blocked.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Thanks, this is helpful.
My intent was to see if there was any reason to think the huge percentage of OC applicants would behave differently to other selectees thereby affecting the math for case to issuance numbers. From what you say, it seems I should not expect that.
2024 Houston
Active Member
Can somebody please explain how did you prove "Secondary School" certificate in Fiji is equivalent to "High School" certificate for qualification purposes?
georgiaclelland
New Member
Is there any chance they may have increased the OC quota? if there was a significant increase in applicants from the region could USCIS possibly have decided to allocate more visas to OC?
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
1. USCIS does not run the DV program. The organization plays no role in DV Lottery visa allocation.
2. Per INA 203(c), no one country can receive more than 7% of the available diversity visas in any one year. This is the law, it cannot be arbitrarily changed. OC’s quota eligibility has not changed.
2. Per INA 203(c), no one country can receive more than 7% of the available diversity visas in any one year. This is the law, it cannot be arbitrarily changed. OC’s quota eligibility has not changed.
georgiaclelland
New Member
Thanks for that @Sm1smom, apologies abot the USCIS confusion.
However, in regards to my question... OC has always received approx 500-750 visas (with the exception of dv2022), and judging by the fact that they have suddenly selected a lot more people from Fiji for example, could they (they being the US government or whoever decides on how many selectees per country, caps etc), have possibly decided to allocate more visas to the OC region in general? as long as a single OC nation doesn't surpass the 7% cap (which according to the selectee numbers by country for dv2024, no OC country is anywhere near that 7% cap).
So instead of the usual 500-750, is there any chance that OC could potentially get, say, 1200 visas? and reduce the allocation to another region for example? I'm just trying to find some kind of explanation as to why there is 77% increase in selectees in our region if they are not planning on giving OC more visas, it just seems really strange.
