Monthly Processing Updates - Prediction

Vorpal said:
If I recall correctly, when the USCIS began posting receipting updates, they began with July 19-July 23. I remember service centers being stuck on the same date for several weeks (TSC), others moving by a day (VSC). While I-485 and visa processing took away a lot of resources from N-400 processing, I really hope that the monthly processing times won't follow the same trend.
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Same here. That would be bad, and if they followed the same pattern then the processing dates would advance only by a day or two per week, as I recall happened at some of the Service Centers (especailly TSC, if memory serves). Hopefully, much of that was due to resources being pulled and placed on other visa types.

Well, on the bright side of things, even if they only advance by 5 - 6 days this month then at that rate they will have finished the July 2007 PDs by mid - April or so. That would mean that most who filed in the weeks following the July rush would get an IL towards the end of April, with a June ID. That might still allow you to meet your target of getting completed by the September timeframe. Don't give up hope just yet - I am reasonably certain that the 16 - 18 month timeframe is just BS to help (a) manage expectations of applicants and politicians and, (b) prevent a deluge of lawsuits against the USCIS since they can argue that anybody whose application takes less than 18 months is still within the "currently stated" processing timeframe, despite the fact that that Congress mandated a 6 month time frame for immigration benefits.
 
yummyk said:
Same here. That would be bad, and if they followed the same pattern then the processing dates would advance only by a day or two per week, as I recall happened at some of the Service Centers (especailly TSC, if memory serves). Hopefully, much of that was due to resources being pulled and placed on other visa types.

Well, on the bright side of things, even if they only advance by 5 - 6 days this month then at that rate they will have finished the July 2007 PDs by mid - April or so. That would mean that most who filed in the weeks following the July rush would get an IL towards the end of April, with a June ID. That might still allow you to meet your target of getting completed by the September timeframe. Don't give up hope just yet - I am reasonably certain that the 16 - 18 month timeframe is just BS to help (a) manage expectations of applicants and politicians and, (b) prevent a deluge of lawsuits against the USCIS since they can argue that anybody whose application takes less than 18 months is still within the "currently stated" processing timeframe, despite the fact that that Congress mandated a 6 month time frame for immigration benefits.
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This is true. It took 11 weeks just to cash my check, and I look at that as lost time. I sincerely hope that I'll meet my target, but having seen the way the USCIS works, I wouldn't be surprised by anything at this point. I am, however, 100% sure that the "1-2 month to IL" timeframe is a crock of CRAP. Some applicants will get lucky and will receive an IL within that timeframe, but most won't. Now that we've figured out a quick way to bypass the service drones and get an IO on the phone, I'm debating whether I should even bother with a mid-April InfoPass. Let's see what happens when the update is posted.
 
Bypassing thru to an IO

Hey Vropal,

Could you please share the trick of bypassing the service reps to get to an IO ?? I've already tried calling a couple of times but no luck.

They keep saying that your case is still within normal processing times so we cannot connect you thru to an IO :(
 
???

Namn400,

You should have got this infor during InfoPass. As my sig indicates, I did get this info during the my appt.
 
Thanks for the reply..but at the Infopass the IO said that the case still with the Service Centre and will be sent to the DO probably this month..but no information about the name check was given.
Ditto the 1-800 number.
Which goes to show that to each case ..his own answer.
In fct one feels a little intimidated by the whole process and don't want to pry the IO too much..which of course leads to more:confused:
 
rocky1 said:
Hey Vropal,

Could you please share the trick of bypassing the service reps to get to an IO ?? I've already tried calling a couple of times but no luck.

They keep saying that your case is still within normal processing times so we cannot connect you thru to an IO :(
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I think the trick that people are referring to is to give the service rep a bogus case number - one that does not appear online when you type it in. I believe that the reps have access to the same database that we do, which is essentially useless. However, when they cannot find your case online they will transfer you to an IO, who has access to all the information regarding your case, including whether you are through name check and if an interview / oath has been scheduled.

The downside I see is that if people keep using this approach, eventually they will get wise to it and not transfer any calls to IOs. On the other hand, the situation we are in is very frustrating - the whole system is designed to give you limited information, and if you want more than that limited information, you have to go and see an IO in person with an Infopass appointment.
 
The information that customer reps. give you is useless. What I don't understand is why they would hire so many(so many because the moment you press the numbers to be connected to customer reps you are connected almost immediately so I assume lots of people are calling and so there must be a whole bunch of them) reps?
And since everyone is complaining the information they provide is useless - what is is whole idea? It is not providing the services people need. Is there a customer satisfaction survey for this?
They could give customer services reps access to the information that IO's have. Or they could hire more IO's and just reduce the number of customer reps or just replace all customer reps with IO's.
 
geetha1 said:
The information that customer reps. give you is useless. What I don't understand is why they would hire so many(so many because the moment you press the numbers to be connected to customer reps you are connected almost immediately so I assume lots of people are calling and so there must be a whole bunch of them) reps?
And since everyone is complaining the information they provide is useless - what is is whole idea? It is not providing the services people need. Is there a customer satisfaction survey for this?
They could give customer services reps access to the information that IO's have. Or they could hire more IO's and just reduce the number of customer reps or just replace all customer reps with IO's.
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Do u think they care a woot abt cust satisfaction? :cool:
 
geetha1 said:
The information that customer reps. give you is useless. What I don't understand is why they would hire so many(so many because the moment you press the numbers to be connected to customer reps you are connected almost immediately so I assume lots of people are calling and so there must be a whole bunch of them) reps?
And since everyone is complaining the information they provide is useless - what is is whole idea? It is not providing the services people need. Is there a customer satisfaction survey for this?
They could give customer services reps access to the information that IO's have. Or they could hire more IO's and just reduce the number of customer reps or just replace all customer reps with IO's.
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They need to hire immigrants like US who has gone through this pain as IOs..
 
nyc_naturalizer said:
when targets become meaningless at the DOs, the priority dates suddenly become meaningful.
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thanks for this observation, nyc_naturalizer, i hope you don't mind that I copied it in the thread with stats

as to meaningless 800 info -

after USCIS lost about 4 to 7 million dollars in interest from not cashing those checks that were held in mailrooms from July to November 2007, i don't expect any efficiency or logic from US CIS any more.
 
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It's about that time of the month again! I predict that this update will move forward by 1 week (July 7) for all DOs previously reporting June 30.
 
Vorpal said:
It's about that time of the month again! I predict that this update will move forward by 1 week (July 7) for all DOs previously reporting June 30.
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Since I was so accurate last month, I have decided to throw my hat in the ring yet again. Based on trends that we have seen in the forum recently, I have posted my predictions, and my commentary for each, below:

New York DO - Jan 1, 2007
(Sorry, New Yorkers, but you have retrogressed by another 6 months. By the end of the year, it looks like NY DO should be processing applications received in the last quarter of FY 2005! That is, of course, unless you are one the random, lucky ones who apply and get an IL 6 weeks later. NY DO likes to do that just to tease you!)

Boston DO - July 1, 2007
(Boston DO moved up by one day to reflect the one time in the last century that their team has won the World Series.)

Chicago DO - May 1, 2010
(That's right, Chicago DO is now moving so fast that they are actually processing cases that have not even been filed. Amazing!! How do they do it??)

Dallas DO - Dec 1, 2007
(All DOs in George Bush's home state seem to be processing at a normal rate. I have it on good authority that the money collected from application fee increases all went to the Texas DOs, at the expense of other DOs around the country.)

Los Angeles DO - Jan 1, 2003
(lo siento mucho Angelinos. Your mayor has been a very bad boy and, because of this, the whole city is being punished by the federal government. Let that be a lesson to all of you want-to-be citizens - be good. Hopefully, you can vote in the 2016 elections though! Bueno suerte.)

Raleigh DO - Unknown / dynamic
(Raleigh / Durham is using a complex formula to calculate its processing time this month. It is retrogressing by one day for every post on this forum made by BobSmyth! That's why it is listed as "dynamic", because it changes sometimes on an hourly basis. Bob, the future of Raleigh DO processing times is in your hands, man!)

Las Vegas DO - 51.32% probability of September 15, 2007
(The boys who run the Las Vegas DO are no better at estimating processing times than any other DO. However, they are much better at one thing...gambling! So, using a complex formula, they assigned a processing date with a probability of actually hitting it. Well, let's at least give them credit for being honest).

Phoenix DO - CLOSED
(Due to recent anti-immigrant sentiment in Arizona, the Phoenix DO has been closed permanently. In fact, rumor has it that the DO was burned to the ground by a mob of angry, gun-toting rednecks. But not before they transferred all pending naturalization cases to...you guessed it, Los Angeles DO!)

Santa Ana DO - <file not found>
(Because of the recent heat wave in Southern California, the hardworking folks at the Santa Ana DO have decided to take the month of April off to work on their surfing techniques. They may not process many applications in April, but their sun tans are sure going to be awesome when they get back to work in May!)

Let's give it another three weeks or so to see if I am correct in my predicitions!
 
I think those are rather accurate predictions!:D

Speaking of random applications that get quick processing, I asked that question during my InfoPass yesterday, and the IO was stumped. The only thing he could say was "each case is different".
 
Bobsmyth said:
Good one yummyk :D With those kinds of predictions you've opened the doors to a career with the USCIS.
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Thanks, Bobsmyth. I hear there is an opening for a new Director of USCIS, so I might just apply. As well, by January of next year, there might even be a new head of DHS. I can't possibly do a worse job than either of those two individuals, even if I joined my Santa Ana DO colleagues and spent my time surfing!
 
All jokes aside, I am very curious to see these new updates. I still have a feeling that most of the "June 30" DOs will "progress" by 1 week.
 
Given that recent applicants are seeing 90 day timelines as July applicants continue to languish, nothing they post will surprise me. It's a completely academic question.
 
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