In the spirit of Bobsmyth's old "Prediction of Weekly Receipting Time Updates" thread, I thought it was time for this forum to have a thread for predicting monthly processing timeframe updates for various DOs. I'll get this one started with my prediction for the NYC DO: based on the PD of the most senior active NYC member of this forum (Vik Pal - PD 7/28/07), and the fact that his name check has been cleared, yet no IL has been received, I predict that NYC will move up by no more than 1 week (7/27 at the latest).
Monthly Processing Updates - Prediction
- Thread starter Vorpal
- Start date
This is a good thread. Thanks for starting this one Vorpal. I am waiting anxiously for the dates to come out because this next update is going to be the most important one and will set the trend for the coming months.
Agreed 100%. This will definitely be the most critical update, as the majority of the service centers were right on the cusp of the end of July crush when the last update posted. I'm beginning to think that it may take at least a couple of months to get over the hump, but we may see smooth sailing from there on in. In the best case scenario, it seems that the entire process will take close to 10-12 months, from PD to oath.
I am willing to take two months. No problem at all if they can do it all in two months. Anything more than that is going to hurt.
It'll most likely take about 2 months for me. You'll probably see an IL by mid-April. As long as I complete the process by September, I'll be thrilled to death. I'm changing my last name, and I'd like to have it done before September 13 (my wedding date).
rick92
Volunteer Moderator
RE: IL / Oath 3/19/08 - NYC DO
Hello Guys,
I have a friend who applied back in July / August 2007 and whose N 400 was rejected because he did not have enough evidence he had been married to his wife ( he's been married for 8 years). He received a letter stating that either he appealed or his app will be considered lost. He got a lawyer and appealed the decision, his interview / civics exams was passed and he was told to appear on Wednesday 3/19 with passport and documents. He thinks it might be his oath. I really hope so, but NYC - DO has oath on Fridays - not on Wednesdays. Any comments ???
Hello Guys,
I have a friend who applied back in July / August 2007 and whose N 400 was rejected because he did not have enough evidence he had been married to his wife ( he's been married for 8 years). He received a letter stating that either he appealed or his app will be considered lost. He got a lawyer and appealed the decision, his interview / civics exams was passed and he was told to appear on Wednesday 3/19 with passport and documents. He thinks it might be his oath. I really hope so, but NYC - DO has oath on Fridays - not on Wednesdays. Any comments ???
Hold on a moment. Do you know when exactly your friend applied? After last summer's fiasco, there's a HUGE difference between having a PD in July and a PD in August. Also, his application was rejected because he didn't provide evidence of being married? Normally, this would result in a request to bring evidence to the interview, not an outright rejection. On top of all that, he already had his interview and passed it? Are you sure you have the correct dates?
coloradon400
Registered Users (C)
I predict that the faster DOs will post a date of Aug 10, let's see! and Des Moines maybe end of October if they keep up the same speed.
Thanks for setting up this thread, Vorpal. I think it's a good idea and at least it gives us something to do while we wait. Well, we have seen some movement at some DOs, and not much apparent movement at others. We can attrribute some of this to the fact that we don't have a very good sample of applications for some of the DOs that are posted on the forum.
Based on discussions we have had in other threads, I interpret "processing date" to mean the following: applications with priority dates on or before the date listed have had interviews scheduled, and ILs sent. This is assuming that there are no outstanding issues with the name check of an applicant. One assumption that I make is that approximately 50% of the July applications arrived in the first 20 days of July, while the other 50% arrive in the final 11 days of the month. For this reason, I don't believe that many DOs will jump an entire month, as they did previously. I hope I am wrong since it would be great to see the DOs currently posting 7-20-07 moving into August. Once they do, it will be much clearer sailing.
The following are my predictions, based only on my personal opinions. These are biased towards west coast DOs that run through the CSC, but I included a prediction for New York as well. Note that I am also giving a range for each DO rather than a specific date:
New York DO July 27 - 30
LA DO July 12 - 15
Santa Ana DO July 25 - 27
San Diego DO July 31 - Aug 2
Sacramento DO Aug 9 - 12
San Fransisco DO July 27 - 30
San Jose May 24 - 27
I suppose that they will post the actual processing dates in about one more week. Does anyone know if the USCIS is working on March 21, 2008 (Good Friday), or if the federal government gives employees a holiday on that day? If memory serves, I believe they work it but I could be wrong.
Based on discussions we have had in other threads, I interpret "processing date" to mean the following: applications with priority dates on or before the date listed have had interviews scheduled, and ILs sent. This is assuming that there are no outstanding issues with the name check of an applicant. One assumption that I make is that approximately 50% of the July applications arrived in the first 20 days of July, while the other 50% arrive in the final 11 days of the month. For this reason, I don't believe that many DOs will jump an entire month, as they did previously. I hope I am wrong since it would be great to see the DOs currently posting 7-20-07 moving into August. Once they do, it will be much clearer sailing.
The following are my predictions, based only on my personal opinions. These are biased towards west coast DOs that run through the CSC, but I included a prediction for New York as well. Note that I am also giving a range for each DO rather than a specific date:
New York DO July 27 - 30
LA DO July 12 - 15
Santa Ana DO July 25 - 27
San Diego DO July 31 - Aug 2
Sacramento DO Aug 9 - 12
San Fransisco DO July 27 - 30
San Jose May 24 - 27
I suppose that they will post the actual processing dates in about one more week. Does anyone know if the USCIS is working on March 21, 2008 (Good Friday), or if the federal government gives employees a holiday on that day? If memory serves, I believe they work it but I could be wrong.
My prediction for NYC DO is July 23 (Monday) and it will move by 1 day for the next few months until the date comes to Aug 01. I hope I'm proven wrong though....
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Exactly. For instance, the last reported IL received by an NYC applicant with a PD sometime in early July. I haven't seen any NYC members with PDs between that and Vik Pal, so we can only guess what happened in between.
I'm compelled to agree with you on your definition of "processing date". Even though the USCIS claims that "processing date" means that applicants with PDs corresponding to and earlier than the posted processing date have had their interviews, it makes absolutely zero sense, based on the trends shown on this forum. As I've mentioned earlier, I'm anxiously awaiting the latest updates, as they will be the most critical updates yet.
I think you're being a bit optimistic with NYC. Although I'd like to think that we'll at least hit 7/27, the real date will probably be more along the lines of 7/25. Then again, who knows?
UPDATE: March 21 is not a recognized federal holiday. If you're curious, the full list of federal holidays for 2008 can be found here: http://www.opm.gov/Operating_Status_Schedules/fedhol/2008.asp
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nyc_naturalizer
Registered Users (C)
Good thread Vorpal. I think your prediction regarding NYC will probably be true.
I think there is a lot of misunderstanding (fed by USCIS itself) about what the processing dates actually mean. As Bobsmyth has pointed out in the past, they are based on targets rather than actual PDs. This is why most DOs had a processing date of 7/20/2007 as of 2/15/2008: that's exactly 210 days, or 7 x 30 days, the USCIS defintion of a 7 month target. You'll find the exact same effect from previous months' updates: the application date posted for most DOs is exactly 210 days prior to the processing time update.
However, this only seems to be true as long as targets are (more or less) being met. What I've observed is that all the DOs (with the sole exception of Des Moines, 9/01/2007) that are not posting the 210 day target (or any multiple of 30 days) are DOs that are behind the target. On the February 15 update, you can see that for these DOs, unlike the dozens in the "July 20 club," there is no uniformity in posted dates. See the dates below (chronological ordering courtesy of Feliz):
Anchorage AK 07/13/2007
Oklahoma City OK 07/11/2007
Casper WY 07/09/2007
Denver CO 07/09/2007
Saint Paul MN 07/08/2007
Charlotte Amalie VI 07/07/2007
Portland OR 07/07/2007
Los Angeles CA 06/30/2007
San Juan PR 06/25/2007
Boise ID 06/24/2007
West Palm Beach FL 06/23/2007
Manchester NH 06/21/2007
Atlanta GA 06/20/2007
Providence RI 06/20/2007
Newark NJ 06/18/2007
Las Vegas NV 06/13/2007
Seattle WA 06/12/2007
Helena MT 06/07/2007
Phoenix AZ 06/06/2007
Saint Louis MO 06/03/2007
Cherry Hill NJ 05/31/2007
Tampa FL 05/31/2007
Boston MA 05/27/2007
Christiansted VI 05/24/2007
Tucson AZ 05/10/2007
Miami FL 05/09/2007
Baltimore MD 05/08/2007
Charlotte NC 04/25/2007
San Jose CA 04/24/2007
Memphis TN 04/14/2007
Dover DE 04/10/2007
Philadelphia PA 04/10/2007
New Orleans LA 04/06/2007
Norfolk VA 04/06/2007
Charleston SC 03/20/2007
Hartford CT 02/23/2007
Orlando FL 02/14/2007
Washington DC 01/21/2007
What this tells me is that when the DOs fall behind their target, they do not simply adjust the target to 8 months, 9 months etc - otherwise you'd see dates like 6/20/07 (240 days), 5/21/07 (270 days), and 4/21/07 (300 days) in the above rather than a random looking distribution of dates. This clearly means that when targets become meaningless at the DOs, the priority dates suddenly become meaningful. Resulting in the following paradox: we only get good information from USCIS when things start to go wrong.
In other words, I think Vorpal's prediction for NYC is probably on the money--not because the dates have been based on priority dates up to now, but rather because the crap is about to hit the fan with the July application load, and they will suddenly have to use priority dates. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this month's update shows July 21, but bear in mind that this wouldn't mean that they're moving one day per month, since the previous update was only an target-based estimate. It's possible that on February 15 they were slightly behind or even slightly ahead the posted date of July 20.
I think there is a lot of misunderstanding (fed by USCIS itself) about what the processing dates actually mean. As Bobsmyth has pointed out in the past, they are based on targets rather than actual PDs. This is why most DOs had a processing date of 7/20/2007 as of 2/15/2008: that's exactly 210 days, or 7 x 30 days, the USCIS defintion of a 7 month target. You'll find the exact same effect from previous months' updates: the application date posted for most DOs is exactly 210 days prior to the processing time update.
However, this only seems to be true as long as targets are (more or less) being met. What I've observed is that all the DOs (with the sole exception of Des Moines, 9/01/2007) that are not posting the 210 day target (or any multiple of 30 days) are DOs that are behind the target. On the February 15 update, you can see that for these DOs, unlike the dozens in the "July 20 club," there is no uniformity in posted dates. See the dates below (chronological ordering courtesy of Feliz):
Anchorage AK 07/13/2007
Oklahoma City OK 07/11/2007
Casper WY 07/09/2007
Denver CO 07/09/2007
Saint Paul MN 07/08/2007
Charlotte Amalie VI 07/07/2007
Portland OR 07/07/2007
Los Angeles CA 06/30/2007
San Juan PR 06/25/2007
Boise ID 06/24/2007
West Palm Beach FL 06/23/2007
Manchester NH 06/21/2007
Atlanta GA 06/20/2007
Providence RI 06/20/2007
Newark NJ 06/18/2007
Las Vegas NV 06/13/2007
Seattle WA 06/12/2007
Helena MT 06/07/2007
Phoenix AZ 06/06/2007
Saint Louis MO 06/03/2007
Cherry Hill NJ 05/31/2007
Tampa FL 05/31/2007
Boston MA 05/27/2007
Christiansted VI 05/24/2007
Tucson AZ 05/10/2007
Miami FL 05/09/2007
Baltimore MD 05/08/2007
Charlotte NC 04/25/2007
San Jose CA 04/24/2007
Memphis TN 04/14/2007
Dover DE 04/10/2007
Philadelphia PA 04/10/2007
New Orleans LA 04/06/2007
Norfolk VA 04/06/2007
Charleston SC 03/20/2007
Hartford CT 02/23/2007
Orlando FL 02/14/2007
Washington DC 01/21/2007
What this tells me is that when the DOs fall behind their target, they do not simply adjust the target to 8 months, 9 months etc - otherwise you'd see dates like 6/20/07 (240 days), 5/21/07 (270 days), and 4/21/07 (300 days) in the above rather than a random looking distribution of dates. This clearly means that when targets become meaningless at the DOs, the priority dates suddenly become meaningful. Resulting in the following paradox: we only get good information from USCIS when things start to go wrong.
In other words, I think Vorpal's prediction for NYC is probably on the money--not because the dates have been based on priority dates up to now, but rather because the crap is about to hit the fan with the July application load, and they will suddenly have to use priority dates. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this month's update shows July 21, but bear in mind that this wouldn't mean that they're moving one day per month, since the previous update was only an target-based estimate. It's possible that on February 15 they were slightly behind or even slightly ahead the posted date of July 20.
I think DO's stuck on July 20 will move by only a few days.
When is this new update getting posted?
Well, tomorrow is the date the update will be issued, and it usually takes a week to get posted. Look for it next Friday.
I liked that you have included the San Diego, I still believe that they do it randomly or some randoms in between. Some friends got passed interview last week which applied just right before the deadline. With you awesome prediction I should get somthing by next month.
Vorpal, only reason I come here to this board to see if you got your interview yet so at least we can eat some food. I have my second Infopass next Monday 17th. I will let you know about all the questions :d
Thanks for the thread, I hope you get your stuff before ceremony.
Peace
I'm waiting until the end of the month before scheduling my 2nd InfoPass. I'll be setting it up for April 14, which is 2 months after my 1st one. I'm almost 100% sure that I won't see an IL by then, since I have no trust in the BS 1-2 month timeframe, so I wonder if they'll give me another 1-2 months.
I hope so. That's great news about your friends who applied at the end of July and have already received an IL. Once we see applicants with late July PDs get their ILs then it won't be long for the rest of us. I agree with several posters here that this month's update will be a very important one. I think it may set the pace for the next little while (until mid-Spring). Yes, I am being a little optimistic with some of the DO estimates, but this is partly based on historical information. I really did expect the processing times to slip in the February 2008 update, but many of the faster DOs moved up by an entire month, to July 20 2007, even though July was the heaviest month on record. Now, the big question is whether all those applications were received in the first 20 days of July or the last 11 days. I have assumed a 50 / 50 split, but maybe it's more like 20 / 80. If it is, we're in for quite a wait. I remember how slowly the receipt notice dates, back in the autumn of 2007, moved up right when the SCs got to the late July timeframe. However, it might not be as bad as that since the USCIS indicated at that time that they had to pull resources from N-400 processing to work on other visa applications. Also, we were getting updates on a weekly basis back then, so it may have felt more agonizingly painful.
In general nobody really knows for sure about what these processing times mean, and if you go to Ron Gotcher's website, his opinion is that they are largely meaningless. My own personal opinion is that there is some meaning to them, but it must be taken with the proverbial grain of salt.
The reason that I do try to evaluate the dates is that I can detect at least a rough correlation between processing times listed and ILs getting issued. I agree that the DOs that process faster than their target date (of 7 months) listed don't always update their dates, but the ones that process more slowly do seem to reflect this in their processing time. For this reason, and as noted above, there seem to be many more DOs with slower processing times of the standard 7 months than there are DOs that post a faster processing time, even though we know here that some DOs are moving very quickly. Perhaps a better way to think of the date is: "now processing applications received after XX / XX / 200X". At some DOs, processing might be weeks or months after the date listed, and at other DOs, processing is closer to the actual date listed. However, from what I have seen here, they rarely process behind the date that is listed. In that regard, processing dates can be viewed as a floor rather than a ceiling.
If I recall correctly, when the USCIS began posting receipting updates, they began with July 19-July 23. I remember service centers being stuck on the same date for several weeks (TSC), others moving by a day (VSC). While I-485 and visa processing took away a lot of resources from N-400 processing, I really hope that the monthly processing times won't follow the same trend.