Max CN limitation for each REGION - my prediction !!!!!!

[kermo]

Thank youMalcomx for your reply, i just have a point needs to comment about
the CN over 22000 not little enough to be considerd as a speacial CN, There are too many who have 26,28,29 and so till almost 36k
and as im egyptian i can see them clearly are so many,

second point, you said that Egypt will not have special cut offs, i did not understand what did you mean ?
did you mean that egypt has no problem so the selectees are in safe and they all will be current? or you meant that egypt will hit its limit in max by June or July? or you mean that Egypt will has cut off then will move to current after so?

I've put a detailed analysis for Africa, as I indicated Egypt will reach their the max CN soon, why:
DV2013 --> selected=5000, scheduled for an interview= 3087 , max CN number = 23000, of course you have few higher CNs but we don't take then into consideration,

DV2014, we have 700 selectee more, this will give 200 additional CN maximum, we already have more then 2850 scheduled and the max CN is around 22000, if we add 200 CNs we will have between 25000 and 26000 and that will be the max CN for Egypt, of course you can have CNs between 26k and 41k but not with the same density and that CNs can be considered a special cases, so I am sure that Egypt will not have a special cuttoff starting from the next month (June) or in the worst case scenario in July,

 

[teoniko]

cn, eu42000.

Do you think my cn. eu 42000 will have an interview. If yes, when? Thank you and sorry if my english are not good.

 

[Britsimon]

Do you think my cn. eu 42000 will have an interview. If yes, when? Thank you and sorry if my english are not good.

Different people have different opinions about whether the numbers will go as high as your number. I personally still think you have a chance. IF you do get an interview, it is likely to be in September, doubtful that it would be any sooner - and cannot be any later!

 

[teoniko]

Different people have different opinions about whether the numbers will go as high as your number. I personally still think you have a chance. IF you do get an interview, it is likely to be in September, doubtful that it would be any sooner - and cannot be any later!

thanks my friend.

 

[IheartNY]

State of play...

Ok so there has been much debate and refinement since Malcomx's original post. Can we consolidate the current viewpoint on maximum CNs for each region as a result? Ive lost track lol

 

[vladek15425]

Ok so there has been much debate and refinement since Malcomx's original post. Can we consolidate the current viewpoint on maximums CNs for each region as a result? Ive lost track lol

All you need to know is that YOU will get a chance heartny

 

[IheartNY]

Awwwww....Vladdy, you're such a sweet talker lol

All you need to know is that YOU will get a chance heartny

 

[kermo]

Britsimon

May you please give us your opinion how Egypt goes on next VS? and if it will hit it limit or not?
just give me you view point ..Thanks in advance

 

[Tazmania]

hi dear,

I'm facing a problem. i was selected me and my wife and two children. my wife agreed in the beginning to go with me and immigrate (the whole family to the states). now after i got the second notification letter, she is telling me i will never go to the states and will never go with you to the interview. i tried to understand from her why and she said for no reason. a week ago she left home and went to her family and started asking for divorce. her family took her stance and support her. what will happen and what can i do. there is no solution and no way that i can convince her. what shall i do. can i go to the interview with my two kids they are 5.5 and 3.5 years old. pls. advise me what to do i spent one year and a half on this thing and i don't want to lose it.
best regards,

Not sure how the embassy would deal with the children but you are good to go anyway.

 

[Britsimon]

Britsimon

May you please give us your opinion how Egypt goes on next VS? and if it will hit it limit or not?
just give me you view point ..Thanks in advance

There are several cutoffs that I think we often confuse.
Countries are sometimes limited during processing with country specific cutoffs and I think that is mainly done to smooth out processing where there are high volumes of applicants for an embassy to process. Egypt has been limited that way – hence the country cutoff of 25900 last VB (compared to 37.9k for AF as a whole).
Any country can only take a maximum of 7% of the total visas available – so that would mean a maximum of 3500 to 3850, depending on how far into the NACARA allowance we can go. A number around 370/3750 is probably about right.
So Egypt may be cutoff again – if so I guess a number close to 30k would be about right. The country cutoff could even be removed if the density of Egyptian applicants is such that most cases have been processed already. That is really quite difficult to predict so nothing would surprise me.
However, the more important question is whether Egypt will be cutoff early because of hitting the country limit of 7%. I think that is a possibility before the end of the year. This year Egypt has 5757 selectees (including family). In 2011 that number was 4251 and 2013 the number was 5015. IN 2011 3268 visas were issued (success rate of almost 77%), in 2013 the success rate was down to 67% (3362 visas issued). If we take the two numbers as a high and low range of success rate (i.e. 67% to 77%) that means Egypt would need between 3857 and 4432 visas. As you can see that means it is likely that Egypt will hit the country limit – so the very highest Egyptian selectees would not get visas.
The political troubles in Egypt will have affected this process this year. You could argue that the trouble would have made people MORE likely to want to take the option to move to America, but you could also say that the difficulties with general life, documentation and so on would make the process more difficult. We will really only know the answer to that around the end of this year when we see the statistics. In order to avoid many people losing out, the success rate needs to drop again to below 65%. That is possible – but not certain.

 

[MalcomX]

Starting from 26k you will not find too much Egyptian CN for sure, Egypte have 5700 selected, referring to 2013 CEAC and 2014 CEAC we have:

The family rate is 2.6 for Egypte,
The number of CNs concerned for an interview will be 1187*5700/5000= 1354 CNs , let's assum let's add 5% more juste to be in safe side , so 1354 + 5% = 1422 CNs will be the number of the Egyptien CNs for the DV2014 who will have an interview

I will simplify the calculation for you:

If you check the CEAC March 204 data you will see that from Egy CN 1 to 14585 you have 711 Case Number, so if we continue with the same density (you juste have to multiply everything by 2) we will have CN=29170 will be the max Egy CN, for course we have 29k instead of 26K (my previous prediction) because I added 5% more

as you can see with the same density we can't have 36k,

assuming that the max Egp CN is 36k with the same density as you are saying in your poste:

from 1 to 12k we have already have 593 CN
so From 1 to 36k and with same density we will have 593*3= 1779 CN

and this will have 5000 * 1779/ 1187 = 7494 selected , this is not correct since we know that the Egy selectees are 5700 and not more, so for me we will reach the max Egy CN during the next month or two month maximum, so basically all Egypt will be current next July max. same as Ghana will be current in June....

Thank youMalcomx for your reply, i just have a point needs to comment about
the CN over 22000 not little enough to be considerd as a speacial CN, There are too many who have 26,28,29 and so till almost 36k
and as im egyptian i can see them clearly are so many,

second point, you said that Egypt will not have special cut offs, i did not understand what did you mean ?
did you mean that egypt has no problem so the selectees are in safe and they all will be current? or you meant that egypt will hit its limit in max by June or July? or you mean that Egypt will has cut off then will move to current after so?

 

[MalcomX]

I think that I already answered to you second point: so basically Egypte will not have problem and all selectees will be current, Egypt will never hit his limit, in the worst case, we will hit the max visa allocated for this program (50000 + 5000) by September and they might cancel some interview worldwide ....

Thank youMalcomx for your reply, i just have a point needs to comment about
the CN over 22000 not little enough to be considerd as a speacial CN, There are too many who have 26,28,29 and so till almost 36k
and as im egyptian i can see them clearly are so many,

second point, you said that Egypt will not have special cut offs, i did not understand what did you mean ?
did you mean that egypt has no problem so the selectees are in safe and they all will be current? or you meant that egypt will hit its limit in max by June or July? or you mean that Egypt will has cut off then will move to current after so?

 

[MalcomX]

I will say:
60% you interview will be August
30% in september
10% you will not have an interview

Do you think my cn. eu 42000 will have an interview. If yes, when? Thank you and sorry if my english are not good.

 

[kermo]

Appreciated Malcomx

Hi Malcomx,I do appreciate you convened comment, i got it entirely and i do agree in in every word,as im glad to hear that all Egyptian selectee will have their interview and Egypt will not

Starting from 26k you will not find too much Egyptian CN for sure, Egypte have 5700 selected, referring to 2013 CEAC and 2014 CEAC we have:

The family rate is 2.6 for Egypte,
The number of CNs concerned for an interview will be 1187*5700/5000= 1354 CNs , let's assum let's add 5% more juste to be in safe side , so 1354 + 5% = 1422 CNs will be the number of the Egyptien CNs for the DV2014 who will have an interview

I will simplify the calculation for you:

If you check the CEAC March 204 data you will see that from Egy CN 1 to 14585 you have 711 Case Number, so if we continue with the same density (you juste have to multiply everything by 2) we will have CN=29170 will be the max Egy CN, for course we have 29k instead of 26K (my previous prediction) because I added 5% more

as you can see with the same density we can't have 36k,

assuming that the max Egp CN is 36k with the same density as you are saying in your poste:

from 1 to 12k we have already have 593 CN
so From 1 to 36k and with same density we will have 593*3= 1779 CN

and this will have 5000 * 1779/ 1187 = 7494 selected , this is not correct since we know that the Egy selectees are 5700 and not more, so for me we will reach the max Egy CN during the next month or two month maximum, so basically all Egypt will be current next July max. same as Ghana will be current in June....

 

[ameer]

Hi Malcomx,I do appreciate you convened comment, i got it entirely and i do agree in in every word,as im glad to hear that all Egyptian selectee will have their interview and Egypt will not

Hi Malcomx,Kermo
I dis agree with you that all egyptin will have their interview,because you just considered the CN # and you have to consider the faimly member also because egypt visa issued cann't be more than 3850.

 

[ameer]

Hi Malcomx,I do appreciate you convened comment, i got it entirely and i do agree in in every word,as im glad to hear that all Egyptian selectee will have their interview and Egypt will not

Hi Malcomx,Kermo
I dis agree with you that all egyptin will have their interview,because you just considered the CN # and you have to consider the faimly member also because egypt visa issued cann't be more than 3850.

 

[Britsimon]

Hi Malcomx,Kermo
I dis agree with you that all egyptin will have their interview,because you just considered the CN # and you have to consider the faimly member also because egypt visa issued cann't be more than 3850.

They know that. The 5757 number includes family members but what they have done is look at CEAC data for last year and this year to get cases (primary selectees) and then that accounts for family members also. So - I agree with you that they are being too optimistic BUT it is not because they haven't taken the family members into account - they have.

 

[vladek15425]

They know that. The 5757 number includes family members but what they have done is look at CEAC data for last year and this year to get cases (primary selectees) and then that accounts for family members also. So - I agree with you that they are being too optimistic BUT it is not because they haven't taken the family members into account - they have.

Simon :
Can you perhaps tell how many responded in DV13 according to raevskys data ?
Like if you add issued+refused+readys+Aps all together for the whole dv13?
Thanks

 

[vladek15425]

If you can also give us an estimate about how many of the sloner effect missing for that same data to add it on ?
Thanks in advance

 

[Britsimon]

Vladek

Just to continue this comment from the aos thread.

You said:-

"You see what I mean now simon !
You asked me to explain the drop-out!? Its a human variable I ca trace it 100% look at this case student in USA but he missed-out about the DV process! Remember 80% of the 140k do not speak nor read english, so the second-holes will be as I said very effective..."

I think you misunderstand what I asked you to explain.

Your theory of excessive "second holes" is based on the belief that large numbers of selectees are failing to return their papers this year. We know this always happens, so we are not talking about individual cases, what you are saying that AS A GROUP the 140,000 selectees are behaving differently this year to other years.

My point is this.

At an individual level you can have someone who decides to not send in forms for a number of reasons, change of heart, financial pressure, new girlfriend at home - whatever. That happens every year and is somewhat predictable (because the GROUP of 140,000 people will have these things happen in guessable percentages.

Next you will have localized issues that will affect the process. The upheaval in Ukraine, Venezuela, Egypt and Syria for instance are all factors that might affect the process. Take Venezuela for instance, that may strengthen the desire for someone to leave the country and therefore improve their return rates BUT it might affect their ability to go through the process by affecting access to documents from the government etc. So - these localized issues might be a factor to increase or decrease the overall success rates, but they will only affect a part of a region - or a country.

The final level is a global event that affects the process. These must be VERY rare and it is this type that you need to explain your theory. A global event is something that affects all 140k selectees. The last most obvious one we saw for sure was 2012 with the redraw and I can use that to illustrate the description of a coherent theory.

THEORY: The redraw obviously impacted the whole selectee population, but statistics show that the impact was much worse in AF region that other regions (leading to the Sloner theory). Most adults recognize that AF region was more impacted because communication and technology in AF region probably meant that many people didn't find out about their selection in the second draw and that this phenomenon was less of an issue in other regions such as Europe.


Ok - so back to my question and challenge. On Facebook, you confirmed that your theory is that there are a lot more second holes this year compared to a normal year - even compared to 2013. You point at the (incomplete) data in CEAC as evidence. Fine - but my challenge is that you have to explain that with some theory that would cause this mass behaviour. This has to be a global level theory because you are saying this second holes sudden increase is happening globally. Mass behaviour doesn't just change without reason.

I hope that makes more sense....