I can't believe San Diego is interviewing Nov 07 and San Francisco interviewing Jan 08 PDs...
Continuing Oath analysis:
ESTIMATE 1 - if 127K pending cases means - waiting for OATH
total 79 325 oaths will be complete from Feb-Aug (+ about 8000 rejected) = 87 325
127 533 LA+22,000 OC (pending Jan 31, 07) = 149 533 - 87 325 = 62 208 of January level left on Sep 1 - that's 41% of cases pending in January .
if about 6000 -8000 new cases were received total in 7 months Feb-Aug, 08
then that's about
68 000 - 70 000 cases left pending on Sep 1.
LA times also
mentioned 180 000 cases pending in SoCal, but not sure if besides 150 000 cases of LA+OC it includes 30 000 cases of San Diego that seems to be moving much faster then LA and OC, it could also be 127,5K LA, 22K OC and 10-20 K San Bernardino (this 3 share bottleneck of LA Court Oaths), leaving 10-20 to San Diego.
ESTIMATE 2 - if 127K pending means - waiting for IL
OC register
reports 236,000 people applied for citizenship in the greater Los Angeles area in 2007
considering that in Jan 08 LA was having OD for Jan-Feb 07 (and sending ILs to April) - it doesnt make sense if they just started having Oaths for Jan 2007 in Jan 2008 how come out of all 2007's - 236K cases only 127,5K were total left pending?
unless "pending" meant waiting for IL? then in Jan they were done with April ILs, it is possible to have 109K of Jan-Apr 07 cases and 100K in May-Aug 07 (suppose then 25K May+ 25K June +45K July+ 5K Aug) and 27 in Sep-Dec 07 (6.7/m)?
ESTIMATE 3 - based on FACT that 40% of 2007 cases were received Jan-May 07
in
this article OC Register shows a table that sais :
24 320 cases were received by LA DO in May 2007 alone,
PAST: in April 2005 it was 10K/month, Dec 2005 - 5K, June 2006 10K/month, Oct 2006 - 8K,
2007: in Jan fee increase was announced and it jumped to 17K/month, then 16K Feb, 22K March, 15K April = 70K, + 24 320 in May = total 92 320 = 40% of total 236K of 2007 cases
so it took them
Sep-Dec 07- ILs to March 07, 4 month for 22K of Mar 07 cases
Dec 07 to send April 07 ILs, --1 month for 15K of Apr 07
Jan-Feb08 - May-June 07 ILs --1,5 months for 24K of May 07
March 08 - June- July 07 IL - 1,5 month for estim. 25K of June 07
April-May 08 - July 07 ILs- 2,5-3 month for estim. 45K of July 07
June 08 - Aug-Sep 07 IL - 1 month for 5-10K Aug+5K Sep
July 08 - Oct -Dec 07 ILs - 1 month for 3x5K
so at speed of 15K/month 127,5 K of pending in Jan cases would have received ILs in 8.4 month, i e by Aug