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For those that like to argue about statistics...

This website is realy addictive :) we suppose to take a break for xmas to chill with familly but none of us does lol.
Even sussieqqq is can't stay away from it while she's travelling shame. :)
Best thread ever simon merry xmas for all
 
vladek15425 said:
This website is realy addictive :) we suppose to take a break for xmas to chill with familly but none of us does lol.
Even sussieqqq is can't stay away from it while she's travelling shame. :)
Best thread ever simon merry xmas for all
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LOL - merry xmas for you too Vladek and for all others (except grumpy people and Pitbull)
 
+ me , and my 44K
Merry Christmas to everybody
and i wish to all selecties in dv14 ,especially to those with higher cases , to take everything with sence of humor , because immigration is just part of our life , whilst life is much wider notion

God bless us ....
... and USA :D
 
Mate who are you???? you youself a fake i can bet on that.... nor u have any such case like 28k donot bluff here... comming out of somewhere just for a day and teaching us various lession....shut ur mouth its a discussion forum we are not paid by u nor u are a boss here get out off here u....such a dumb coming out of nowhere donot know anything and started giving lecture dumbass....
nadimnasralah said:
I think you are profisional team and you should act like some one who is doing statistical and analysis and some time we are see some numbers and percentage other time predictible , cuple of days may be you will create anither forum and don’t know what you will name it , after make redicuals from the persons who are registred her and make them seen stupid you and your friends , I think this type of action and behaviar not good especialy for profisional team , actuly you need to work more on your athicks and attidude before doing calculations and analysing , and regarding for the troding whos inter fage numbers as your are assuming I people like your thinking should re calculate his actions befor judging people and make thim selly and stupid , sham on your self friend ,
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Rayme said:
Mate who are you???? you youself a fake i can bet on that.... nor u have any such case like 28k donot bluff here... comming out of somewhere just for a day and teaching us various lession....shut ur mouth its a discussion forum we are not paid by u nor u are a boss here get out off here u....such a dumb coming out of nowhere donot know anything and started giving lecture dumbass....[/QUOT

thanks let people see how u r shut my mouth , and let thim see how much ur kind , tilling me such words , thanks for ur action , u r helping us will ,
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just see your reply first how rudely u behaved.... he just asked u where are u from as its not usual for us to see 28k from asia here so he just asked u about where are you from and what was ur reply then do u remember? before u point ur fingers on other see urself first here this dudes are not paid even though they are trying to help many... and you came from nowhere and started them to tell anything u like its not good mate...

thanks let people see how u r shut my mouth , and let thim see how much ur kind , tilling me such words , thanks for ur action , u r helping us will ,[/QUOTE]
 
hi guys
nadimnasralah , i think you should been reading some topics first , before posting complaints here. Your question was - when you will be interviewed with your AS28k , right?
I had replied to you very clearly - there are different opinions about how will develop visa issuance process .
Some of users here think ,that higher then usual cases will not get interviewed at all , because number of selecties is unreasonably bigger then usual (100-105K)
some users attitude is more optimistic and they are sure , that any case number has normal chances to get their visa , while others (like me , for example) think that we dont have enough info and statistic to make 100% surely prediction , and we prefer to use "may be " phrase instead of insisting something.
please note , that even KCC is unable to figure out your cut-off date now , so what you was expecting from us , from ordinary users of the forum?
Do not spend your emotions uselessly
 
(However, in theory when they go current I think they would have a roughly similar amount processed as in the preceding months, simply because the "system" (i.e. KCC scheduling interviews and the embassies performing the interviews) has a capacity - so they wouldn't want to save up all the work for the last month or two - especially as they will already have extra workload in receiving and processing DV2015 forms.)

Quoted simon on australian thread

I need to clarify this point; u said they process more or less the same amount of inteviews on the last month when if it becomes current but if u check last year the oc only progressed by 150 to to 200 at the time, and at the end I'm sure they did processed all the rest which is about more than 1000 cn ?thanks
 
vladek15425 said:
(However, in theory when they go current I think they would have a roughly similar amount processed as in the preceding months, simply because the "system" (i.e. KCC scheduling interviews and the embassies performing the interviews) has a capacity - so they wouldn't want to save up all the work for the last month or two - especially as they will already have extra workload in receiving and processing DV2015 forms.)

Quoted simon on australian thread

I need to clarify this point; u said they process more or less the same amount of inteviews on the last month when if it becomes current but if u check last year the oc only progressed by 150 to to 200 at the time, and at the end I'm sure they did processed all the rest which is about more than 1000 cn ?thanks
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I don't think "the rest" was anywhere near 1000 CN for OC. The August cutoff for OC was 1600 (Current in September) and the highest number in CEAC was 1638. There may be a few higher cases than 1638 (as we believe the CEAC data is missing a few numbers), but I don't think there is anything to suggest a further 1000 CNs were handled in September.
 
britsimon said:
I don't think "the rest" was anywhere near 1000 CN for OC. The August cutoff for OC was 1600 (Current in September) and the highest number in CEAC was 1638. There may be a few higher cases than 1638 (as we believe the CEAC data is missing a few numbers), but I don't think there is anything to suggest a further 1000 CNs were handled in September.
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Ok so according to u they carry on with the normal rate on the last two months!
I realy thought they expediate way more interviews!
anyway so than there is no hope
To see OC current ! Coz the maximux rate in oc cut offs is between 150 to 200 ?
 
vladek15425 said:
Ok so according to u they carry on with the normal rate on the last two months!
I realy thought they expediate way more interviews!
anyway so than there is no hope
To see OC current ! Coz the maximux rate in oc cut offs is between 150 to 200 ?
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There is no doubt that they will need to increase the pace above 150/200 if they are to fill the quota - I think they need to start jumping by 300+ if they are to have even a chance of going current. However, getting current is not their target, interviewing all selectees is not their target, they only want to fill the quotas - most importantly the global quota.
 
And simon u said OC is the less over suscribe but if last year they had cn 1600 this year they have cn4200
Af was last year had cn9xxxx this year so far its cn116xxx so actualy oc is over suscribed !
Thanks
 
vladek15425 said:
And simon u said OC is the less over suscribe but if last year they had cn 1600 this year they have cn4200
Af was last year had cn9xxxx this year so far its cn116xxx so actualy oc is over suscribed !
Thanks
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Yeah agreed, OC IS oversubscribed, but not as bad as other regions - IF you base the quota on the split of selectees. That assumption may be incorrect but I can't explain why they would have had doubled the selectees for OC.
 
britsimon said:
There is no doubt that they will need to increase the pace above 150/200 if they are to fill the quota - I think they need to start jumping by 300+ if they are to have even a chance of going current. However, getting current is not their target, interviewing all selectees is not their target, they only want to fill the quotas - most importantly the global quota.
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Ok so you ur guess is : if big jumbs happen. Rodger that

Its bad to know that they about to sacrifies thousends of selectees just to fill up
The quota and its true they don't give a damn about regions going current :(
 
Simon I need your help on this ;
As 2011. 2013. 2014
Oct 9000. 1900. 1800
Nov 10750. 2350. 2500
Dec 11600. 2700. 2650
Jan. 13300. 3400. 3000
Feb. 14800. 4300. 3700
Mar 17200. 5200. ????

Perhaps can u tell us how many as selectees in 2011, and the high AS CN 2011 ?
And how can u explain this tortule pace in 2014 ?
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon I need your help on this ;
As 2011. 2013. 2014
Oct 9000. 1900. 1800
Nov 10750. 2350. 2500
Dec 11600. 2700. 2650
Jan. 13300. 3400. 3000
Feb. 14800. 4300. 3700
Mar 17200. 5200. ????

Perhaps can u tell us how many as selectees in 2011, and the high AS CN 2011 ?
And how can u explain this tortule pace in 2014 ?
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In 2011 Bangladesh were still in the process (they were excluded from 2013). Bangladesh had high number of entries and enormous amount of fraud. The DV lottery wiki mentions a fraud rate of 96% in 2012 for Bangladesh - which would have meant a high number of holes. So, taking them out has reduced the high case numbers for 2013 and 2014.

I should point out that removing Bangladesh could affect the success rate that I used for 2011 BUT they actually got a pretty good sucess rate around 50% so I didn't even try to work around it.

Oh and the slow pace for 2014? I have no idea. I really want to see the big jump theory come true....
 
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Thanks man . that's now make a sens because I couldn't figure out what was the reason for the huge amount of selectees in 11dv.
Do u think there will be lot of holes since we spotted some cn in asia between 23xxx to 36xxx?
 
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What if there is no "big jump" and rates continue on as they are will any of the regions get to more than 50% of their selectees.
 
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