For those that like to argue about statistics...

[raevsky]

Agreed for AS. I forgot there were other consulates processing Iran.

It seems there are less EU interviews in Warsaw. Do you think it is a good sign, or pretty much irrelevant because not significant enough on a statistical standpoint?

Yes, and there should be less.
Two countries are interviewed in Warsaw - Poland and Belarus.
In DV-13 there were 3233 winners from those 2 countries together. In DV-14 there are 3425 winners from them. However, I expect only numbers up to about ~35K out of 54K total to be interviewed, that would be 3425 * 35/54 = 2220. That is only about 69% of 3233, or the DV-13 number. So, the number of interviews in Warsaw should be in DV-14 only about 2/3 of DV-13 level.

 

[raevsky]

BTW, the number of interviews from Belarus (in terms of chargeability) should be about the same as in DV-13, but the number of interviews from Poland - much less.

 

[Sloner]

It seems there are less EU interviews in Warsaw. Do you think it is a good sign, or pretty much irrelevant because not significant enough on a statistical standpoint?

I think this is a good sign for the high numbers above 50,000 in Europe.

 

[vladek15425]

I think this is a good sign for the high numbers above 50,000 in Europe.

How can it be a good sign sloner? if the interview processing is slow !?

 

[SusieQQQ]

How can it be a good sign sloner? if the interview processing is slow !?

Vladek, you keep avoiding my posts pointing out that you need an unprecedented fallout rate for everyone to be current by fiscal year end...even for Africa.

 

[rocky72]

How can it be a good sign sloner? if the interview processing is slow !?

hi guys
i think his point is ...
less interview in 2014 under higher cut-off, then in same month of 2013 but with lower cut-off may caused by low forms return ratio in 2014.
less forms sent -more chances for higher cases.

 

[Sloner]

How can it be a good sign sloner? if the interview processing is slow !?

then in June, July, August, September, will have a high processing speed.
Need to take the numbers. The best part is behind 40000. Here there and take it.

 

[nadimnasralah]

hi guys
i think his point is ...
less interview in 2014 under higher cut-off, then in same month of 2013 but with lower cut-off may caused by low forms return ratio in 2014.
less forms sent -more chances for higher cases.

hi guys ,
any one can figure my cut off date will be in which month , thanks

AS00028xxx

NS

 

[rocky72]

we have 3 oracles
just assume their answers and find your golden mean

1)Rav - never
2)Bt-Simon - Only God knows
3)Sloner - in the mid summer or september

 

[Sloner]

hello.
Number decreased. I wonder where the missing number 38000?

 

[Sloner]

we have 3 oracles
just assume their answers and find your golden mean

The main prize. Pitbull reward.

 

[Mijoro]

I noticed pitbull disappeared pretty quickly after lying to everyone about the EU numbers

 

[Kayend]

hi guys ,
any one can figure my cut off date will be in which month , thanks

AS00028xxx

NS

Another case # higher than 27xxx. Where are you from and when you know you are selected?

 

[rocky72]

The main prize. Pitbull reward.

listen , in your city it is 1:10AM , and sometimes till 2-3AM you keep talking here , now it is clear that you are rather coffee drinker but not vodka.

mijoro ,
yes , pitbul seems gone
next turn is raevsky's , if nimbers above 37K will go to interview , or sloner's if 35-37K will be final cut-off for EU
or mine , if i decide to use my E-2 visa and forget about DV selection

 

[vladek15425]

I noticed pitbull disappeared pretty quickly after lying to everyone about the EU numbers

I'm glad he's gone ! Because my self I put him on my ignore list, I don't wanna hear nothing from him ....

 

[Britsimon]

hi guys ,
any one can figure my cut off date will be in which month , thanks

as00028xxx

ns

we have 3 oracles
just assume their answers and find your golden mean

1)rav - never
2)bt-simon - only god knows
3)sloner - in the mid summer or september

lol!

 

[rocky72]

bros

i have noticed , in 2 past years(2012-2013) jumps in cut-offs increased in april and may
2013
march-16200
+6650
april-22850
+4650
may-27500

2012
march -26500
+5500
april-32000
+8000
may-40000

may be better news we will have then in the mid.spring?

 

[nadimnasralah]

listen , in your city it is 1:10AM , and sometimes till 2-3AM you keep talking here , now it is clear that you are rather coffee drinker but not vodka.

mijoro ,
yes , pitbul seems gone
next turn is raevsky's , if nimbers above 37K will go to interview , or sloner's if 35-37K will be final cut-off for EU
or mine , if i decide to use my E-2 visa and forget about DV selection

I think you are profisional team and you should act like some one who is doing statistical and analysis and some time we are see some numbers and percentage other time predictible , cuple of days may be you will create anither forum and don’t know what you will name it , after make redicuals from the persons who are registred her and make them seen stupid you and your friends , I think this type of action and behaviar not good especialy for profisional team , actuly you need to work more on your athicks and attidude before doing calculations and analysing , and regarding for the troding whos inter fage numbers as your are assuming I people like your thinking should re calculate his actions befor judging people and make thim selly and stupid , sham on your self friend ,

 

[vladek15425]

Vladek, you keep avoiding my posts pointing out that you need an unprecedented fallout rate for everyone to be current by fiscal year end...even for Africa.

Ii elaborated on the including exluding theory as you followed the thread,
To find out if it could work out ! But simon proved me wrong it was just a theory
That we debated . I was just speculating
I owe simon few beers on that lol

 

[Britsimon]

I think you are profisional team and you should act like some one who is doing statistical and analysis and some time we are see some numbers and percentage other time predictible , cuple of days may be you will create anither forum and don’t know what you will name it , after make redicuals from the persons who are registred her and make them seen stupid you and your friends , I think this type of action and behaviar not good especialy for profisional team , actuly you need to work more on your athicks and attidude before doing calculations and analysing , and regarding for the troding whos inter fage numbers as your are assuming I people like your thinking should re calculate his actions befor judging people and make thim selly and stupid , sham on your self friend ,

Dude, chill out! No one here is "professional" - we are not paid. Most of us just read and learn about the process and offer opinion, advice and help to others. I can't understand why you seem so upset, but the tirade you posted is not a good way to get help around here...