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For Dv 2012 May 1st selectees!!

The scope of this lawsuit is not to consider whether visas issued need to be revoked. So I would assume this is not going to be discussed at all. What is the lawsuit about - whether May winners should start receiving visas instead of July winners.
Provided May draw was right, the judge has the authority to order DOS to through out those July winners who have not received visas yet, and order DOS to give May winners who applied for visas visa numbers within yearly quota.
However, that is all under the assumption that May draw was right. And this assumption is wrong because May draw was conducted in violation of the law.
 
The lawyer is really very good, and might win all procedural disagreements. However, he will not be able to prove that flawed process of May draw was right. He will not because it was wrong. He will not also be able to resolve the process on 60 b, because the injustice was done not to May winners, but to July winners.
 
Interesting

raevsky said:
The scope of this lawsuit is not to consider whether visas issued need to be revoked. So I would assume this is not going to be discussed at all. What is the lawsuit about - whether May winners should start receiving visas instead of July winners.
Provided May draw was right, the judge has the authority to order DOS to through out those July winners who have not received visas yet, and order DOS to give May winners who applied for visas visa numbers within yearly quota.
However, that is all under the assumption that May draw was right. And this assumption is wrong because May draw was conducted in violation of the law.
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I have kept aloof from these May winner discussions (though I am one of them) even before July 15th when I wasn't sure what would happen to both my spouse and I who had won and the results were nullified...but I wish to comment here:

THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. I mean "Throw out July winners who have not received visas yet and order DOS to give May winners who applied for visas visa numbers within yearly quota" This will not happen at all. Legally, Morally, Practically even Ethically.
1. If May winners feel they have a right to sue and receive visas after a 10-13 days of notification and preparation; then the JULY winners also have a greater right as most of them have by now started the process. Why would the judge solve a problem for 22,000 that creates a problem for another may be 100,000 who were also notified in July? There is something called probative value and prejudicial effect that judges use to decide. Example "a captain of a ship swerved his 400 people capacity ship from hitting a rock and killing the 400 and instead slammed on a boat with 12 people killing 8 of them. The judge ruled in favor of the captain of the ship using the probative value/prejudicial effect standard of proof" The big question would be "Where is the bigger damage? With the 22,000 or with the 100,000?

2. Winning the lottery does NOT guarantee issuance of visas. 100,000 people win...there are about 50,000 visas available but only about 36,000 - 42,000 actually receive the visas by qualification.

Anyway, my point here is - May winners can be reinstated - that would be a fantastic twist of event...but NOT at the expense of any other winners. July winners did not win at the expense of May winners - the two are completely independent. May be the DOS can utilize the visa numbers that were not used in previous years because from what I understand they barely issue the whole 55,000 of them each quarter...and this is only to those who successfully go through the process (may be 10-12,000 of them)

At the end of the day, this was a bad incident that happened and we were all heart broken, and pray that we all heal well and move on. The chances of winning lottery are slim and most people dont even believe in it coz some of us have never known anyone who ever won till we did and the results were nullified.

Am not saying that people should stop fighting...or stop contributing to the lawyer, am just saying that a lawsuit should be won at ITS OWN MERIT. I am not the judge here but May winners will never receive visas instead of July winners. That is a fact as of today and I dont predict a change in that.... There was no computer programming error reported in July, but one was reported in May. Please dont get me wrong, either way I was a winner so any results of this would be ok...though with May winning my visa would have been current for now, so please dont get me wrong.
 
I don't think ANYONE can throw out July selecrees

The best case scenario that the May 1 selectees (like myself) could hope for is that the 22,000 will be ADDED to those selected in July. Then there will be more applicants for each Green Card, and they might run out well before Sep. 30, 2012. The numerical element isn't so important, because as said previously, out of 100,000 or so selectees every year, DOS usually doesn't issue 50,000 Green Cards, and there are unused cards almost every year.

The main problem for May 1 selectees is TIME: even if the appeals court would decide the case in our favor, it'll be only by mid-May 2012. That would make it close to impossible for selectees to complete the process prior to Sep. 30, 2012. In such a case there might be some advantage to selectees already in the U.S., since adjustment of status ususally take less time than consular processing.
 
I disagree.
1. The main problem for May selectees is not time. The problem #1 is that is order to allow them being selected the court will have to call black white and white black. That is why time is not just the problem #1, it is not a problem at all, because the decision will be against plaintiffs
2. The court will not consider the arguments like 100,000 versus 22,000. Because the purpose of the court is not to appease, but to provide justice. If 22,000 are right, they are right and 100,000 are wrong. If 22,000 are wrong, then 100,000 are right. In the example wit the boat the court did not advise the captain how to behave. The court just justified his reasons for killing 8 for one specific purpose - release him from prosecution for murder of the 8. That does not mean he would have been prosecuted if killed 400.
3. I still see some points where Kurzban could win and most likely will win. For istance, the court might order DOS to destroy DS-230 forms that some of plaintiffs sent to DOS and "forget" about them. And time is not important here.
 
adjustment of status ususally take less time than consular processing
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Even though you are actually quoting Kurzban here, I think AOS time is more than CP time. I just think Kurzban tried to use this argument since CP times are not published, and he wanted to win time.
 
To raevsky

1.
HTML: 
because the decision will be against plaintiffs

Well, since I lost my crystal ball, it's impossible for me to tell the future. You obviously have your own crystal ball - good for you!!

Just one comment on AOS vs. CP: it used to be the case that CP was faster than AOS, but that has changed. Another thing is that because CP involves more steps that involve more agencies (e.g. the need to get LOCAL police clearance, while in AOS only the FBI checks your background) that are non-U.S. ones and needed to be examined by the U.S. authorities, for most people AOS (as it is today) will be quicker.
 
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Here is the decoding table. Decode your confirmation number using this table and calculate the difference between you submission time from confirmation screenshot and the time that you decode to. If the difference is more than 1 hour and 30 minutes you have a chance to be backfilled and get into 2%.

20121O3 10/5/10 12:05 PM
20121O4 10/5/10 12:45 PM
20121O5 10/5/10 1:25 PM
20121O6 10/5/10 2:05 PM
20121O7 10/5/10 2:45 PM
20121O8 10/5/10 3:25 PM
20121O9 10/5/10 4:05 PM
20121OA 10/5/10 4:45 PM
20121OB 10/5/10 5:25 PM
20121OC 10/5/10 6:05 PM
20121OD 10/5/10 6:45 PM
20121OE 10/5/10 7:25 PM
20121OF 10/5/10 8:05 PM
20121OG 10/5/10 8:45 PM
20121OH 10/5/10 9:25 PM
20121OI 10/5/10 10:05 PM
20121OJ 10/5/10 10:45 PM
20121OK 10/5/10 11:25 PM
20121OL 10/6/10 12:05 AM
20121OM 10/6/10 12:45 AM
20121ON 10/6/10 1:25 AM
20121OO 10/6/10 2:05 AM
20121OP 10/6/10 2:45 AM
20121OQ 10/6/10 3:25 AM
20121OR 10/6/10 4:05 AM
20121OS 10/6/10 4:45 AM
20121OT 10/6/10 5:25 AM
20121OU 10/6/10 6:05 AM
20121OV 10/6/10 6:45 AM
20121OW 10/6/10 7:25 AM
20121OX 10/6/10 8:05 AM
20121OY 10/6/10 8:45 AM
20121OZ 10/6/10 9:25 AM
20121P0 10/6/10 10:05 AM
20121P1 10/6/10 10:45 AM
20121P2 10/6/10 11:25 AM
20121P3 10/6/10 12:05 PM
20121P4 10/6/10 12:45 PM
20121P5 10/6/10 1:25 PM
20121P6 10/6/10 2:05 PM
20121P7 10/6/10 2:45 PM
20121P8 10/6/10 3:25 PM
20121P9 10/6/10 4:05 PM
20121PA 10/6/10 4:45 PM
20121PB 10/6/10 5:25 PM
20121PC 10/6/10 6:05 PM
20121PD 10/6/10 6:45 PM
20121PE 10/6/10 7:25 PM
20121PF 10/6/10 8:05 PM
20121PG 10/6/10 8:45 PM
20121PH 10/6/10 9:25 PM
20121PI 10/6/10 10:05 PM
20121PJ 10/6/10 10:45 PM
20121PK 10/6/10 11:25 PM
20121PL 10/7/10 12:05 AM
20121PM 10/7/10 12:45 AM
20121PN 10/7/10 1:25 AM

For instance, if your conf. number is 20121OO** and time of submission is October 6th, 2:48:59 AM, your entry from the table is October 6th, 2:05AM, and it differs from your real time of submission in 43 minutes and 59 seconds. That is less than 1 hour and 30 minutes, so you are not backfilled.
 
Any good news about 22k

Thank you Raevsky

I wish to hear a good news about may 1 selectees. pls give more details and explaination about how to caculate submission
 
@Raevsky,How did you come about the issue of decoding tables and calculation time of submission of entry?
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I met a post about what confirmation numbers in DV-2013 mean. By that time I had already some statistics about rank numbers, confirmation numbers and submission times regarding DV-2012 applicants and winners (from the lawsuit proceedings). So I took a look and made this discovery. First I though about correspondence between confirmation time and rank numbers. But it did not have experimental support. Then I looked at confirmation number vs submission time. And I have some data from two May winners who submitted their entries after October 6th. Then everything became clear to me.
 
raevsky said:
I met a post about what confirmation numbers in DV-2013 mean. By that time I had already some statistics about rank numbers, confirmation numbers and submission times regarding DV-2012 applicants and winners (from the lawsuit proceedings). So I took a look and made this discovery. First I though about correspondence between confirmation time and rank numbers. But it did not have experimental support. Then I looked at confirmation number vs submission time. And I have some data from two May winners who submitted their entries after October 6th. Then everything became clear to me.
Click to expand...

@raevsky,Now if an entry is submitted at 10:04am and the confirmation page with number say 10:05am after printing, are you now saying confirmation number has something do with winning base on the time of submission or just time of submission has something to do with confirmation number and winning?
 
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Neither one. If there is a big difference between confirmation number and submission time (submission time is much more than time, corresponding to confirmation number), that means the entry was backfilled. If a winning entry was backfilled, it has a chance of success in court.
 
raevsky said:
Neither one. If there is a big difference between confirmation number and submission time (submission time is much more than time, corresponding to confirmation number), that means the entry was backfilled. If a winning entry was backfilled, it has a chance of success in court.
Click to expand...

Okay now i know where you coming from,ex-22k issue.Okay now from your own opinion do you still believe some of these ex 22k would be called back?
 
If I were to bet I would say no. However, I think there is a possibility some of them would be back.
 
raevsky said:
Neither one. If there is a big difference between confirmation number and submission time (submission time is much more than time, corresponding to confirmation number), that means the entry was backfilled. If a winning entry was backfilled, it has a chance of success in court.
Click to expand...

raevsky said:
If I were to bet I would say no. However, I think there is a possibility some of them would be back.
Click to expand...

Well hope so.Although i am not among the ex22k but my sister was among.Anyway hope for the better.
 
raevsky said:
Here is the decoding table. Decode your confirmation number using this table and calculate the difference between you submission time from confirmation screenshot and the time that you decode to. If the difference is more than 1 hour and 30 minutes you have a chance to be backfilled and get into 2%.

20121O3 10/5/10 12:05 PM
20121O4 10/5/10 12:45 PM
20121O5 10/5/10 1:25 PM
20121O6 10/5/10 2:05 PM
20121O7 10/5/10 2:45 PM
20121O8 10/5/10 3:25 PM
20121O9 10/5/10 4:05 PM
20121OA 10/5/10 4:45 PM
20121OB 10/5/10 5:25 PM
20121OC 10/5/10 6:05 PM
20121OD 10/5/10 6:45 PM
20121OE 10/5/10 7:25 PM
20121OF 10/5/10 8:05 PM
20121OG 10/5/10 8:45 PM
20121OH 10/5/10 9:25 PM
20121OI 10/5/10 10:05 PM
20121OJ 10/5/10 10:45 PM
20121OK 10/5/10 11:25 PM
20121OL 10/6/10 12:05 AM
20121OM 10/6/10 12:45 AM
20121ON 10/6/10 1:25 AM
20121OO 10/6/10 2:05 AM
20121OP 10/6/10 2:45 AM
20121OQ 10/6/10 3:25 AM
20121OR 10/6/10 4:05 AM
20121OS 10/6/10 4:45 AM
20121OT 10/6/10 5:25 AM
20121OU 10/6/10 6:05 AM
20121OV 10/6/10 6:45 AM
20121OW 10/6/10 7:25 AM
20121OX 10/6/10 8:05 AM
20121OY 10/6/10 8:45 AM
20121OZ 10/6/10 9:25 AM
20121P0 10/6/10 10:05 AM
20121P1 10/6/10 10:45 AM
20121P2 10/6/10 11:25 AM
20121P3 10/6/10 12:05 PM
20121P4 10/6/10 12:45 PM
20121P5 10/6/10 1:25 PM
20121P6 10/6/10 2:05 PM
20121P7 10/6/10 2:45 PM
20121P8 10/6/10 3:25 PM
20121P9 10/6/10 4:05 PM
20121PA 10/6/10 4:45 PM
20121PB 10/6/10 5:25 PM
20121PC 10/6/10 6:05 PM
20121PD 10/6/10 6:45 PM
20121PE 10/6/10 7:25 PM
20121PF 10/6/10 8:05 PM
20121PG 10/6/10 8:45 PM
20121PH 10/6/10 9:25 PM
20121PI 10/6/10 10:05 PM
20121PJ 10/6/10 10:45 PM
20121PK 10/6/10 11:25 PM
20121PL 10/7/10 12:05 AM
20121PM 10/7/10 12:45 AM
20121PN 10/7/10 1:25 AM

For instance, if your conf. number is 20121OO** and time of submission is October 6th, 2:48:59 AM, your entry from the table is October 6th, 2:05AM, and it differs from your real time of submission in 43 minutes and 59 seconds. That is less than 1 hour and 30 minutes, so you are not backfilled.
Click to expand...

O.K, Please, what about this Confirm. number 20121O8*** and time of submission is october 5th, 3:23:11 PM, entry from the table is 20121O8 ,10/5/10 3:25 PM?
 
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