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DV2015 Winners from Sri Lanka

Anxiety2015 said:
I think the VB cutoff might be higher than what Simon has predicted (66xx-67xx).
To be fair, when he made the prediction, the Nepal earthquake has not taken place.

Due to the earthquake, I think they might put a higher cut off to compensate for those who cannot proceed.
It is a very sad event to say the least, nonetheless, the quota must be filled based on the congressional mandate.
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I do not think KCC will be that quick to assess the impact, and come up with the course of actions for July.
The fact is that in May and June, with existing cut-off level, they will issue much less visas than anticipated, since Nepal has been taking up to 60% of the issued visas so far.
 
Nepal embassy closed from 28 April to 4th May and they opened 5th May. So they have lost 5 working days, that means they did not interview around 50 cases. I don't think there will be a special cutoff for Nepal July. As usual VB will be released with lower cutoff some where around 6450-6550 instead of Britsimon prediction 6600-6700 for July.
In August VB, there will be special cutoff for Nepal and will be few in September to cover lost one.
 
Sensei-san said:
I do not think KCC will be that quick to assess the impact, and come up with the course of actions for July.
The fact is that in May and June, with existing cut-off level, they will issue much less visas than anticipated, since Nepal has been taking up to 60% of the issued visas so far.
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exactly as you said, May and June will yield much less visa. Some will come back in July or beyond, some might not.

The fact remains there are 5 months left in the year for DV, if Nepal is set to take less visa due to the disaster, where and how would they fill the quota?

As Idea Mani has pointed out, we would need around 12xxx to fill the quota this year based on current rates, that means way more than 1000 cases will be scheduled for interview in Aug and Sept should the cut off be around 66-67xx in July. Should they want Sept to be a back up month, Aug inetrview would be even higher.

My worst fear right now is a huge number of late DS260 return for ROA in earlier ( already current ) cases.
 
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Idea Mani said:
Nepal embassy closed from 28 April to 4th May and they opened 5th May. So they have lost 5 working days, that means they did not interview around 50 cases. I don't think there will be a special cutoff for Nepal July. As usual VB will be released with lower cutoff some where around 6450-6550 instead of Britsimon prediction 6600-6700 for July.
In August VB, there will be special cutoff for Nepal and will be few in September to cover lost one.
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If I remember corrently, there are around 60 KDU cases being put on AP and around 12 issued as of yesterday.
Should we assume they are those who missed the interview during the earthquake week, all their civil doc should be ready way before.

In other words, their AP are not due to missing doc, but situation (maybe financial or physical) due to the disaster that make them harder to proceed.

By calling a lower cutoff, even fewer Nepal cases are expected to be approved, while a lower cut off further reduce the ability for Iran cases to enter and clear the AP process.Assuming the DS260 return has matured and stabilized, who would benefit?

I will leave it up to all of us to decide.

I must stress that no one wants the disaster, but it remains a fact that it occurred. As such, my thoughts on VB progression is based on past event, not personal desire to benefit from disaster.

Once again, thank you Idea Mani, Sensai and TerryDasmon for your input, really appreciate the discussion.
 
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June VB (July numbers) going to release in few days and once they update ceac data with the July interview, we can estimate how Asia cut off going to end. Nepal will have their full quota 3500 visa by August. They don't get any extra visa due to earthquake.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Why would that happen, though?
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Based on 2 observation
  1. ROA response rate is lower than last year
  2. KCC sent a reminder out to winners around Jan 2015, which means those cases would be documentary ready for scheduled interview
This would of course impact any prediction. So I am not saying this will happen, but rather of anything that happens, this would be my worst fear.

Susie, I would appreciate if you don't mind sharing your thought on Asia.
 
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Idea Mani said:
June VB (July numbers) going to release in few days and once they update ceac data with the July interview, we can estimate how Asia cut off going to end. Nepal will have their full quota 3500 visa by August. They don't get any extra visa due to earthquake.
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That's exactly it, I am not sure if Nepal can hit max with the original 7600 range.

The VO could very likely not limit Nepal and let it play out till 9100 where most Nepal cases are exhausted. The question remains how badly is Nepal impacted in terms of DV and can the VO jam everything within 2 months with knowing how many visa Nepal will yield.

I am sure you know the overall target is around 8200 instead of 8500 as DVRoger have demonstrated for us. The max in CEAC data is around 3300 visa (since AOS cases are not visible), instead of 3500.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Based on 2 observation
  1. ROA response rate is lower than last year
  2. KCC sent a reminder out to winners around Jan 2015, which would be documentary ready for scheduled interview
This would of course impact any prediction. So I am not saying this will happen, but rather of anything that happens, this would be my worst fear.

Susie, I would appreciate if you don't mind sharing your thought on Asia.
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I don't know enough about Asia to have many thoughts to share ;) - but I do find it interesting that they sent out a reminder letter. However, if they sent it in January I would think that by now surely most of the forms must have been submitted?
 
SusieQQQ said:
I don't know enough about Asia to have many thoughts to share ;) - but I do find it interesting that they sent out a reminder letter. However, if they sent it in January I would think that by now surely most of the forms must have been submitted?
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Not a problem Susie, and I appreciate your response.
I am from ROA with a somewhat high number, so I trying very hard to be unbiased.

Regarding the reminder, let's say folks filled it out late Jan, and the norm around that time is 2-3 months processing, it means the cases are ready for schedule around April. If the scheduling cut off is missed, that means they will be scheduled in May (advanced for July) in a few days.

With that said, we are assuming everyone who got a reminder return their form immediately in late Jan or early Feb. If they are not, we could be yet to see full blunt of these returns.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Not a problem Susie, and I appreciate your response.
I am from ROA with a somewhat high number, so I trying very hard to be unbiased.

Regarding the reminder, let's say folks filled it out late Jan, and the norm around that time is 2-3 months processing, it means the cases are ready for schedule around April. If the scheduling cut off is missed, that means they will be scheduled in May (advanced for July) in a few days.

With that said, we are assuming everyone who got a reminder return their form immediately in late Jan or early Feb. If they are not, we could be yet to see full blunt of these returns.
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Don't forget a significant number of those may have just decided not to proceed too...
 
SusieQQQ said:
Don't forget a significant number of those may have just decided not to proceed too...
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Haha, Susie, you know me from last year and thanks for the comforting thought.

Like you said, probably worrying silly over nothing... just to be clear, I mean it when I say I appreciate all your input, nothing sarcastic at all.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Haha, Susie, you know me from last year and thanks for the comforting thought.

Like you said, probably worrying silly over nothing... just to be clear, I mean it when I say I appreciate all your input, nothing sarcastic at all.
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I took it as appreciation :) even though the input wasn't much :D
 
Visa bulletin released...!:)
Confusing..! :(But I will not give up until end…!! :)
I feel it will be exceed 13k. :D
Waiting for Brit Simon’s next prediction…
He has given good prediction for Asia last time.
Thanks a lot Mr. Brit Simon..! :)
 
Dear All,

VB for July is 6850 and Nepal is cutoff at 6475.

How long is it gonna go in the next two VBs??? Lets wait for Britsimons predictions.

Winning and following it up was curious at the beginning, later became interesting and now after a year have become addicted to it.
 
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