• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

DV2015 Winners from Sri Lanka

terryadamson7 said:
Hi,

Lets wait till Britsimons predictions. He will update it shortly.

What stands for ROA?
Click to expand...
Smurfette said:
Hi Guys ..,
I am nerves about increasing of CNs. :(:oops:
However hope our CNs will be current and get an interview chances as previous year. :)
Hopefully we have to wait and see next three big jumps. :rolleyes:
Good Luck for all who are suffering with big CNs higher than AS11xxx.:)
Click to expand...
Idea Mani said:
ROA means - Rest Of Asia (Exclude Nepal & Iran)
Click to expand...

Guys, I hope you don't mind me joining in the Sri Lanka thread.

Like I said, I am not from Sri Lanka but from ROA.
We need a dedicated Asia specific thread and more people like you for a healthy and active discussion.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Upon a closer look at your statement "if Nepal max out, early 8000 there will be 520 visas goes to ROA" , I have another question/doubt.

If Nepal maxes out early (or late), meaning they have taken 3500 visa (in reality more or less 33xx-32xx visas), there will not 520 visa going to ROA.
Assuming the regional quota of 8200, Nepal max early or late yields 3500 visa regardless, Iran will take a portion, maybe 2500?
If so ROA will be 8200-3500-2500 = 2200 visa for ROA.

Hence Nepal maxing out early or late will not yield more visa for ROA.
Click to expand...

You are right, from Nepal maxes, ROA will not get any benefit, because they will use their maximum visa ~3500. My point is from chart I did not minus 520 visas in the range of 8001-9000 and I high lighted pink in color between 11001-13000 where Asia cutoff. and look at the cutoff shows that total visas for Asia ~8700 to 8900. Depend on the Nepal maxes and Iran AP, Asia cutoff can be like last year.

Asia visa bulletin will have big jump in the month of August and Sep.
 
Idea Mani said:
You are right, from Nepal maxes, ROA will not get any benefit, because they will use their maximum visa ~3500. My point is from chart I did not minus 520 visas in the range of 8001-9000 and I high lighted pink in color between 11001-13000 where Asia cutoff. and look at the cutoff shows that total visas for Asia ~8700 to 8900. Depend on the Nepal maxes and Iran AP, Asia cutoff can be like last year.

Asia visa bulletin will have big jump in the month of August and Sep.
Click to expand...
Eh Huh, now I see what you are saying.

Because Nepal will max out sooner than 9100 (I think this is where they run out of most cases), they will not take anymore visa beyond 7xxx or very low 8xxx.
In your chart, you didn't not show that for the sake of calculation. In other words, by the end of 8001-9000, it will not yield 7859 visas (Nepal maxes out, they cannot take more.....rare exception, (3) of Sec. 202. [8 U.S.C. 1152], which I don't think will apply this year).
It's more like 73xx-74xx visa by 9000, hence the overall Asian cut off is 11xxx-13xxx where you have highlighted pink.

Again, thanks for doing this Idea Mani.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Eh Huh, now I see what you are saying.

Because Nepal will max out sooner than 9100 (I think this is where they run out of most cases), they will not take anymore visa beyond 7xxx or very low 8xxx.
In your chart, you didn't not show that for the sake of calculation. In other words, by the end of 8001-9000, it will not yield 7859 visas (Nepal maxes out, they cannot take more.....rare exception, (3) of Sec. 202. [8 U.S.C. 1152], which I don't think will apply this year).
It's more like 73xx-74xx visa by 9000, hence the overall Asian cut off is 11xxx-13xxx where you have highlighted pink.

Again, thanks for doing this Idea Mani.
Click to expand...

Yes, you are correct
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Idea Mani, thanks for the summary and the note on ROA.

I can't help but wonder if the 65% response rate would be reduced once Nepal has max out.
We know Nepalese is keen on returning their DS260, showing up on interview compared to ROA and Iran.They also represent more than 1/3 of cases before Iran max out too.

As such, the response rate could be lower pass that point, which means a more favorable outcome for us:D
Click to expand...

That is possible to calculate right now from the data we have. We know how many cases there should be from Nepal/Iran/ROA per thousand - so you can easily see how many there are and see if it is over or under. I would agree that Nepal is likely to have a high response rate (higher than 65% by the end).
 
Britsimon said:
That is possible to calculate right now from the data we have. We know how many cases there should be from Nepal/Iran/ROA per thousand - so you can easily see how many there are and see if it is over or under. I would agree that Nepal is likely to have a high response rate (higher than 65% by the end).
Click to expand...
Simon, just so I understand.

You are also in agreement that ROA will have a lower than 65% response rate(since Nepal would have maxed out and Iran exhausting all cases) beyond 86xx-88xx, correct?

The reasoning behind 86xx-88xx is
1). Almost all Iranian cases are below this CN range
2). Nepal would have maxed out by 7xxx if not very low 8xxx.
So the 65% (as Idea Mani puts it 63% current +2%) is a mix of Nepal + Iran + ROA
Once Nepal is out with 2). - the response rate should be lower, it is Nepal that is driving up the response rate to 65%(63%) now due to their eagerness to respond.
When Iran exhausts all cases at 1). - the response rate should be further lowered than 2) , of all 3 sub-region, ROA has a lowest response rate now.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Simon, just so I understand.

You are also in agreement that ROA will have a lower than 65% response rate(since Nepal would have maxed out and Iran exhausting all cases) beyond 86xx-88xx, correct?

The reasoning behind 86xx-88xx is
1). Almost all Iranian cases are below this CN range
2). Nepal would have maxed out by 7xxx if not very low 8xxx.
So the 65% (as Idea Mani puts it 63% current +2%) is a mix of Nepal + Iran + ROA
Once Nepal is out with 2). - the response rate should be lower, it is Nepal that is driving up the response rate to 65%(63%) now due to their eagerness to respond.
When Iran exhausts all cases at 1). - the response rate should be further lowered than 2) , of all 3 sub-region, ROA has a lowest response rate now.
Click to expand...


The thing about Nepal is that they have been almost completely untroubled by the DS260 backlog. So - that means they all managed to submit their DS260s early - mainly because they have some "nice" agentcies who assist participant and selectees for a very small fee. So - yes their response rate is high, but ROA might have an increasing response rate - i.e. Nepal is fully matured, ROA isn't. So - I think it is a bit early to say ROA will have a lower response rate for sure. But again - the data is there... no need to guess.
 
Hello Guys

Britsimon had released his predictions for July. AS is increasing very slow. It is still at 67xx. It will be like 2000 short compared to last year.

So if Nepal gets maxed in Aug...then we will only have one big jump in September. So will that reach above 11xxx???

Most of us here are in 11xxx....
Now it is a big worry for me....but still the dream continues.
 
terryadamson7 said:
Hello Guys

Britsimon had released his predictions for July. AS is increasing very slow. It is still at 67xx. It will be like 2000 short compared to last year.

So if Nepal gets maxed in Aug...then we will only have one big jump in September. So will that reach above 11xxx???

Most of us here are in 11xxx....
Now it is a big worry for me....but still the dream continues.
Click to expand...

I expect the August VB to be a repeat of last year. Nepal hits the limit and ROA gets a higher number in that month. Then September builds on that - depending on Iranian AP processing at that time...
 
terryadamson7 said:
Hello Guys

Britsimon had released his predictions for July. AS is increasing very slow. It is still at 67xx. It will be like 2000 short compared to last year.

So if Nepal gets maxed in Aug...then we will only have one big jump in September. So will that reach above 11xxx???

Most of us here are in 11xxx....
Now it is a big worry for me....but still the dream continues.
Click to expand...
Britsimon said:
I expect the August VB to be a repeat of last year. Nepal hits the limit and ROA gets a higher number in that month. Then September builds on that - depending on Iranian AP processing at that time...
Click to expand...

Here's what bothers me a bit.

In 2014 we have 673 and 643 AS cases seen in July and Aug respectively. Not counting late submissions for number already current.
Let's say we are looking at 750-800 max, shall we?

For 2015, we know Nepal(KDU interviews) are ahead of last year, so KCC is pacing them until July and probably a special cut off in Aug.
Let's use Simon's prediction of 6700 cut off of July, there are 3189 cases between 6700 & 12700.
If we examine these cases in ranges from:
6700-7600 (where Nepal might max out), there are 861 cases and let's use 66% response rate, it's 569 cases.

7601-8800 (where all Iran cases are exhausted), there are 1065 cases. Since Nepal will max out, let's remove 35% from this , which is 692 cases left. 692 cases* 66% response rate which is 457 cases

8800-9100 (where Nepal max case is, except outliers), there are 176 cases. These 176 cases are split between Nepal and ROA only and the ratio is 35:33 (of the 35% Nepal, 32% Iran and 33% ROA split based on entries). The % ratio will be 51.4% Nepal and 48.5% ROA.
with a special cut off for Nepal, it will contain 176*48.5%=86 cases. 86 cases*66% response rate, it's 56 cases.

9100-12700, there are 1084 cases (most ROA) , at 66% response rate, it's 715 cases.

So what does this mean?
If Simon is correct about 6700 being the July cut off, and assuming Aug is a repeat of last year at 12700 except Nepal at 7600, we will see 569+457+56+715 = 1797 cases (compared to 750-800 cases in Aug last year), while for July, the assumption is to see about 450-550 cases (compared to 673 (750-800 with late submissions) cases in July last year).

I'd like to think that's way over capacity.

Again, kindly point out where I got my math incorrect and I am curious to see it from anyone's perspective.
 
Last edited:
Anxiety2015 said:
Here's what bothers me a bit.

In 2014 we have 673 and 643 AS cases seen in July and Aug respectively. Not counting late submissions for number already current.
Let's say we are looking at 750-800 max, shall we?

For 2015, we know Nepal(KDU interviews) are ahead of last year, so KCC is pacing them until July and probably a special cut off in Aug.
Let's use Simon's prediction of 6700 cut off of July, there are 3189 cases between 6700 & 12700.
If we examine these cases in ranges from:
6700-7600 (where Nepal might max out), there are 861 cases and let's use 66% response rate, it's 569 cases.

7601-8800 (where all Iran cases are exhausted), there are 1065 cases. Since Nepal will max out, let's remove 35% from this , which is 692 cases left. 692 cases* 66% response rate which is 457 cases

8800-9100 (where Nepal max case is, except outliers), there are 176 cases. These 176 cases are split between Nepal and ROA only and the ratio is 35:33 (of the 35% Nepal, 32% Iran and 33% ROA split based on entries). The % ratio will be 51.4% Nepal and 48.5% ROA.
with a special cut off for Nepal, it will contain 176*48.5%=86 cases. 86 cases*66% response rate, it's 56 cases.

9100-12700, there are 1084 cases (most ROA) , at 66% response rate, it's 715 cases.

So what does this mean?
If Simon is correct about 6700 being the July cut off, and assuming Aug is a repeat of last year at 12700 except Nepal at 7600, we will see 569+457+56+715 = 1797 cases (compared to 750-800 cases in Aug last year), while for July, the assumption is to see about 450-550 cases (compared to 673 (750-800 with late submissions) cases in July last year).

I'd like to think that's way over capacity.

Again, kindly point out where I got my math incorrect and I am curious to see it from anyone's perspective.
Click to expand...

I certainly never meant to infer that this year August will see 12700. The numbers are different, the entries are different. I would not suggest we get to 12700 in August when I have clearly been saying that numbers over 10k depend on Iranian AP.

All I meant was that Nepal will cut off in August and ROA will get an increase over and above the Nepal number.
 
Britsimon said:
I certainly never meant to infer that this year August will see 12700. The numbers are different, the entries are different. I would not suggest we get to 12700 in August when I have clearly been saying that numbers over 10k depend on Iranian AP.

All I meant was that Nepal will cut off in August and ROA will get an increase over and above the Nepal number.
Click to expand...

Got it Simon,that's exactly what I want to clarify with you and thank you for that.

I am sure you know I am asking this for my own knowledge and potentially for anyone out there who shares any doubt with me.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Here's what bothers me a bit.

In 2014 we have 673 and 643 AS cases seen in July and Aug respectively. Not counting late submissions for number already current.
Let's say we are looking at 750-800 max, shall we?

For 2015, we know Nepal(KDU interviews) are ahead of last year, so KCC is pacing them until July and probably a special cut off in Aug.
Let's use Simon's prediction of 6700 cut off of July, there are 3189 cases between 6700 & 12700.
If we examine these cases in ranges from:
6700-7600 (where Nepal might max out), there are 861 cases and let's use 66% response rate, it's 569 cases.

7601-8800 (where all Iran cases are exhausted), there are 1065 cases. Since Nepal will max out, let's remove 35% from this , which is 692 cases left. 692 cases* 66% response rate which is 457 cases

8800-9100 (where Nepal max case is, except outliers), there are 176 cases. These 176 cases are split between Nepal and ROA only and the ratio is 35:33 (of the 35% Nepal, 32% Iran and 33% ROA split based on entries). The % ratio will be 51.4% Nepal and 48.5% ROA.
with a special cut off for Nepal, it will contain 176*48.5%=86 cases. 86 cases*66% response rate, it's 56 cases.

9100-12700, there are 1084 cases (most ROA) , at 66% response rate, it's 715 cases.

So what does this mean?
If Simon is correct about 6700 being the July cut off, and assuming Aug is a repeat of last year at 12700 except Nepal at 7600, we will see 569+457+56+715 = 1797 cases (compared to 750-800 cases in Aug last year), while for July, the assumption is to see about 450-550 cases (compared to 673 (750-800 with late submissions) cases in July last year).

I'd like to think that's way over capacity.

Again, kindly point out where I got my math incorrect and I am curious to see it from anyone's perspective.
Click to expand...
What is your source for 2014 numbers?
 
Sensei-san said:
What is your source for 2014 numbers?
Click to expand...

There are couples files in the forum from last year. I just download those and played around.

As a reminder, we cannot use the final 9-30-2014 file as some cases would have cleared AP where the CN was current before.And I don't recall having in transit status in the files I can get my hands on.
 
Last edited:
terryadamson7 said:
Hello Guys...

Just few days more for the next bulletin.

Lets stay confident together :):)
Click to expand...

I think the VB cutoff might be higher than what Simon has predicted (66xx-67xx).
To be fair, when he made the prediction, the Nepal earthquake has not taken place.

Due to the earthquake, I think they might put a higher cut off to compensate for those who cannot proceed.
It is a very sad event to say the least, nonetheless, the quota must be filled based on the congressional mandate.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
I think the VB cutoff might be higher than what Simon has predicted (66xx-67xx).
To be fair, when he made the prediction, the Nepal earthquake has not taken place.

Due to the earthquake, I think they might put a higher cut off to compensate for those who cannot proceed.
It is a very sad event to say the least, nonetheless, the quota must be filled based on the congressional mandate.
Click to expand...
Yes I agree. We can expect a bigger jump in numbers.

Thank you for sharing your opinion :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top