DV13 stats released!!!

[c1984]

Hey guys, I just have this crazy idea of why sometimes DV visa can exit 50k limit. It is not from NACARA, the extra DV visa is from previous unused visa. That also explain why it increased the selectees in DV14 to 140k because they have extra 15k visa from DV12 unused. That mean we can only hit the country limit and not the global limit in DV13 because it has more than enough visa globally. Each year the annual limit is 50k but it does not stated that it will not use the previous years unused visas.

Well, this is just my wild guess, if it is a total crap just ignore it.

There is no doubt that when the fiscal year is over any unused visas are gone forever.

 

[c1984]

Here's another thesis for Iran exceeding the 7% cap and also for Asia progressing so slowly.

They might be deliberately holing AS one month behind last year's progression just because of what happened with Iran in Sep '13.

By the looks of it NVC assigns visas to consulates on a monthly basis. Keeping a tally of the visas in the middle of the month may not be a straight-forward task. ANK managed it by the mid-month notification on their website. I don't think ABD and YRV did that. Possibly Iran exceeded the limit because of reaching the limit mid-cycle.

Perhaps they are holding the whole AS one month slower than last year so that they can better manage any exceeding of the 7% cap. Last year they were caught off-guard, and maybe all they're doing is trying not be taken off-guard again.

If that is the case, we can expect AS to progress one month behind last year's progression up to the end (unless special cut-offs are implemented).

 

[raevsky]

Raevsky ; since you recalculate your predictions for EU, can you perhaps
Give us your new predictions for AF and the other regions, based on new infos
Ragarding the Nacara, That you have now ?
Thanks

I was trying to do the same type of predictions I did for Asia/Ira/Nepal for EU and AF. The problem is that the rate of submitting documents to KCC for beginning of January and end of May is very much different for EU than for AS.
The second problem is that I have good estimate where Ukrainian and Uzbekistani numbers end in EU and I am pretty sure Iran and Nepal would exhaust their visas that gives me the way to calculate the same thing for AS. But not for AF - I am not sure wherre AF special countries numbers end for 4 special countries, and also I am pretty sure visas for those 4 countries will not be exhausted.

So, that means the old type of calcs I did for EU would not work for AF (because AF special countries will not be exhausted) and the new type of calcs I did for AS would not work for AF and EU as well - because the rate of submissions in Jan and May looks very much different. That basically means I cannot get more precise calcs for AF than I did earlier.

 

[Kayend]

Here's another thesis for Iran exceeding the 7% cap and also for Asia progressing so slowly.

They might be deliberately holing AS one month behind last year's progression just because of what happened with Iran in Sep '13.

By the looks of it NVC assigns visas to consulates on a monthly basis. Keeping a tally of the visas in the middle of the month may not be a straight-forward task. ANK managed it by the mid-month notification on their website. I don't think ABD and YRV did that. Possibly Iran exceeded the limit because of reaching the limit mid-cycle.

Perhaps they are holding the whole AS one month slower than last year so that they can better manage any exceeding of the 7% cap. Last year they were caught off-guard, and maybe all they're doing is trying not be taken off-guard again.

If that is the case, we can expect AS to progress one month behind last year's progression up to the end (unless special cut-offs are implemented).

If one month last than last year, the case # won't go above 10k and that also mean Asia quota will be underfilled.

 

[Britsimon]

Here's another thesis for Iran exceeding the 7% cap and also for Asia progressing so slowly.

They might be deliberately holing AS one month behind last year's progression just because of what happened with Iran in Sep '13.

By the looks of it NVC assigns visas to consulates on a monthly basis. Keeping a tally of the visas in the middle of the month may not be a straight-forward task. ANK managed it by the mid-month notification on their website. I don't think ABD and YRV did that. Possibly Iran exceeded the limit because of reaching the limit mid-cycle.

Perhaps they are holding the whole AS one month slower than last year so that they can better manage any exceeding of the 7% cap. Last year they were caught off-guard, and maybe all they're doing is trying not be taken off-guard again.

If that is the case, we can expect AS to progress one month behind last year's progression up to the end (unless special cut-offs are implemented).

Hmm interesting theory - fallout from what we would assume was a mistake in Iran....

Don't like what that means though...

 

[House409]

Thanks Raevsky. I did two calculations to see if the debt could still exist - I wasn't sure whether EW is still giving 5k to NACARA - you probably know. I carried on the numbers from the doc that House409 linked to, and that showed the debt would be repaid by 2006 if it is DV and EW or 2012 if it is just DV. So - I personally don't think a debt exists but then as you say there is the number of 3741 in Iran - which may indicate a larger NACARA demand than I imagine.

In any case - I appreciate your comments and I am thrilled to see your new estimate range!

Simon, this is an excerpt of Feb14 Visa Bulletin, and it seems to me they can still use 5,000 visas for NACARA under the EW category (EB3 visas):

*Employment Third Preference Other Workers Category:* Section 203(e) of the Nicaraguan and Central American Relief Act (NACARA) passed by Congress in November 1997, as amended by Section 1(e) of Pub. L. 105-139, provides that once the Employment Third Preference Other Worker (EW) cut-off date has reached the priority date of the latest EW petition approved prior to November 19, 1997, the 10,000 EW numbers available for a fiscal year are to be reduced by up to 5,000 annually beginning in the following fiscal year.* This reduction is to be made for as long as necessary to offset adjustments under the NACARA program.* Since the EW cut-off date reached November 19, 1997 during Fiscal Year 2001, the reduction in the EW annual limit to 5,000 began in Fiscal Year 2002.

The EB3 quota does not seem to be filled although the cutoff date is June 2012, so not current. It is unclear to me if the retrogression means they rather favor the DV visas for the NACARA adjustments than the EW visas.

What do ya think?

 

[Britsimon]

Simon, this is an excerpt of Feb14 Visa Bulletin, and it seems to me they can still use 5,000 visas for NACARA under the EW category (EB3 visas):

*Employment Third Preference Other Workers Category:* Section 203(e) of the Nicaraguan and Central American Relief Act (NACARA) passed by Congress in November 1997, as amended by Section 1(e) of Pub. L. 105-139, provides that once the Employment Third Preference Other Worker (EW) cut-off date has reached the priority date of the latest EW petition approved prior to November 19, 1997, the 10,000 EW numbers available for a fiscal year are to be reduced by up to 5,000 annually beginning in the following fiscal year.* This reduction is to be made for as long as necessary to offset adjustments under the NACARA program.* Since the EW cut-off date reached November 19, 1997 during Fiscal Year 2001, the reduction in the EW annual limit to 5,000 began in Fiscal Year 2002.

The EB3 quota does not seem to be filled although the cutoff date is June 2012, so not current. It is unclear to me if the retrogression means they rather favor the DV visas for the NACARA adjustments than the EW visas.

What do ya think?

This refers to the 5k of visas grabbed from EW for the NACARA program. If you look on the link you provided (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2003 AppE.pdf) you will see the 5,000 visas starting in 2002 that mean the offset was being reduced by 10k (5k from DV, and 5k from EW). So this Feb14 is not talking about using visas from DV for EW it is talking about EW visas reducing the NACARA deficit.

 

[House409]

This refers to the 5k of visas grabbed from EW for the NACARA program. If you look on the link you provided (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY2003 AppE.pdf) you will see the 5,000 visas starting in 2002 that mean the offset was being reduced by 10k (5k from DV, and 5k from EW). So this Feb14 is not talking about using visas from DV for EW it is talking about EW visas reducing the NACARA deficit.

Well, what I meant is if they prefer to use EW to offset NACARA adjustments, they may use less DV visas for NACARA. Unless because there is so much retrogression for EB3 visas, they may prefer to use DV visas for NACARA adjustments first, and not use any EW visas for the few hundreds of NACARA cases left to be adjusted. Any idea? I don't really know how to figure that out.

 

[Britsimon]

Well, what I meant is if they prefer to use EW to offset NACARA adjustments, they may use less DV visas for NACARA. Unless because there is so much retrogression for EB3 visas, they may prefer to use DV visas for NACARA adjustments first, and not use any EW visas for the few hundreds of NACARA cases left to be adjusted. Any idea? I don't really know how to figure that out.

Hmmmm I see what you mean. I don't know the answer, however, given that the NACARA demand is so low (a cuple of hndred probably) I don't think it matters much. I believe we will see a visas issued number of 53/54k - and that is very good news for medium high CNs.

 

[House409]

Hmmmm I see what you mean. I don't know the answer, however, given that the NACARA demand is so low (a cuple of hndred probably) I don't think it matters much. I believe we will see a visas issued number of 53/54k - and that is very good news for medium high CNs.

Yes, that probably does not change a lot, but every few hundreds of visa count. Well well well, I'm afraid we won't have the answer on how many DV visas they will grant for FY14 until Jan next year when they release the stats.

This DV thing is really nerve wrecking. May the force (and patience) be with us!!!

 

[Britsimon]

Yes, that probably does not change a lot, but every few hundreds of visa count. Well well well, I'm afraid we won't have the answer on how many DV visas they will grant for FY14 until Jan next year when they release the stats.

This DV thing is really nerve wrecking. May the force (and patience) be with us!!!

Absolutely!

 

[House409]

Another stats that I found interesting is the table in the link below:

http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/fi...ation-statistics/yearbook/2012/LPR/table6.xls

There is no FY2013 data yet, but still it gives a good indication on a few things:

It shows AOS cases represent only a very small percentage of all DV visas.

It shows also NACARA applications look indeed to diminish over the years. Simon is convinced they actually don't have any backlog left. That would mean they just put aside a few hundreds of DV visas for new NACARA applications.

So, if CEAC database is well maintained, we can follow pretty accurately in real time how many visas are granted. Super exciting, and a bit frightening also

 

[Sloner]

A good reference. Africa must get visas 18000, Europe 20000.

 

[vladek15425]

Well excellent house409 , you are realy good in finding docs
Now if those numbers are corret which I'm sure they are ! The nacara shows like simon said not even 200 in the past 3 years (yesss).
Now there one heck ! I see the dv visas showing under 50' for dv 10 and 11 !!!! Suppose to be over 50???

 

[vladek15425]

A good reference. Africa must get visas 18000, Europe 20000.

No sloner the ideal is 10000 for africa and 28000 for europe

 

[House409]

Well excellent house409 , you are realy good in finding docs
Now if those numbers are corret which I'm sure they are ! The nacara shows like simon said not even 200 in the past 3 years (yesss).
Now there one heck ! I see the dv visas showing under 50' for dv 10 and 11 !!!! Suppose to be over 50???

This table is taken from the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics:

http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics

It seems to represent the final stats for all immigrant categories and consider the sum of all AOS and admissions at Port of Entries.

The difference for the DV figures might come from applicants who chose not to enter the US before the 6 months expiration of their visa. I am sure there are people choosing after all not to pursue the American Dream, for financial, tax, employment, family reasons.

 

[House409]

A good reference. Africa must get visas 18000, Europe 20000.

You may be right, but that is only if unused visas for Africa are allocated to other regions.

These past years, there are no major changes in the partition of other numerically limited immigration visas that would significantly change the regional quotas for Dv14 compared to Dv13. Remember the split between regions is mandated by law, following a well defined formula. See INA 203 (c) regulations.

Also, the selectee count for Dv14 seems to follow a very similar split as last years.

But it is technically possible to grant more visas to one particular region if the quota for another region is under filled.

I doubt it, but we got your point.

 

[vladek15425]

This table is taken from the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics:

http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics

It seems to represent the final stats for all immigrant categories and consider the sum of all AOS and admissions at Port of Entries.

The difference for the DV figures might come from applicants who chose not to enter the US before the 6 months expiration of their visa. I am sure there are people choosing after all not to pursue the American Dream, for financial, tax, employment, family reasons.

So its probably not including aos, what a waste for the ones that
Drop their dream after getting the visas!

 

[House409]

So its probably not including aos, what a waste for the ones that
Drop their dream after getting the visas!

It does include the AOS.

Dept of State statistics count the total number of visa issued (including AOS), while Dept of Homeland Security counts the total number of visa holders who have entered the US (plus the ones who did AOS and got their green card while on American soil).

 

[vladek15425]

It does include the AOS.

Dept of State statistics count the total number of visa issued (including AOS), while Dept of Homeland Security counts the total number of visa holders who have entered the US (plus the ones who did AOS and got their green card while on American soil).

Ok but than I see it shows 3 time a row for diversity, with different totals ! I don't get it ?