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DV13 stats released!!!

Is there a way to know the accumulative number of visas issued in DV 2013 during the months of August & September across all regions ? I see that Asia and Europe went current those two months and Africa did so for the month of September.

The "Current" wording is still a big question mark to me. A region goes current because they have tons of visas available, because its the end of the visa pool and it goes by a first come first served basis....
 
urbanite said:
Is there a way to know the accumulative number of visas issued in DV 2013 during the months of August & September across all regions ? I see that Asia and Europe went current those two months and Africa did so for the month of September.

The "Current" wording is still a big question mark to me. A region goes current because they have tons of visas available, because its the end of the visa pool and it goes by a first come first served basis....
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You could get a pretty good idea from the CEAC 2013 data - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&usp=drive_web#gid=7

Current is really quite simple. It means they believe they have enough remaining visas to satisfy all remaining demand. Since we think we have too many selectees this year, it is likely that most or all of the regions will not go current. Instead the numbers on the VB will just continue to rise during August and September (we hope).
 
britsimon said:
You could get a pretty good idea from the CEAC 2013 data - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...VWWnJoV1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&usp=drive_web#gid=7

Current is really quite simple. It means they believe they have enough remaining visas to satisfy all remaining demand. Since we think we have too many selectees this year, it is likely that most or all of the regions will not go current. Instead the numbers on the VB will just continue to rise during August and September (we hope).
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Thank you Simon, I also think there will be no Current this year. Finger-crossed
 
Hey guys, I just have this crazy idea of why sometimes DV visa can exit 50k limit. It is not from NACARA, the extra DV visa is from previous unused visa. That also explain why it increased the selectees in DV14 to 140k because they have extra 15k visa from DV12 unused. That mean we can only hit the country limit and not the global limit in DV13 because it has more than enough visa globally. Each year the annual limit is 50k but it does not stated that it will not use the previous years unused visas.

Well, this is just my wild guess, if it is a total crap just ignore it. :)
 
What do you think guys,this year the cut off might come for the Sri Lanka. For example, Asia cut off 5000, except Sri Lanka 8000.
 
dolopar said:
What do you think guys,this year the cut off might come for the Sri Lanka. For example, Asia cut off 5000, except Sri Lanka 8000.
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No, it don't work this way. Special cut off only for special country. Normally they do that is to avoid bottleneck. Sri Lankan generally having 15k-22k case # and their selectees only 1k+ so Sri Lanka will not be a special country for sure.
 
So the only option to cover all the Asia region is to put a special cut off either for Nepal or Iran? I wonder why it hasn't been done done till now...
 
dolopar said:
So the only option to cover all the Asia region is to put a special cut off either for Nepal or Iran? I wonder why it hasn't been done done till now...
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Well, this is the question that no one from the forum can answer but usually 2nd half of the fiscal year it will progress faster. The question is how fast can it go? If no special cut off happen for Asia. Anyway, let hope we have a better 2nd half of the fiscal year. Btw, what is your case #?
 
kayend said:
Well, this is the question that no one from the forum can answer but usually 2nd half of the fiscal year it will progress faster. The question is how fast can it go? If no special cut off happen for Asia. Anyway, let hope we have a better 2nd half of the fiscal year. Btw, what is your case #?
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My case AS11### and I am from Nepal
 
britsimon said:
This was an interesting post - thanks - it increases my understanding.

The number of NACARA visas listed on your link is section 202 visas. Your link demonstrates very well how they offset over time from the DV and EW visas. Your link provides data up to 2003, and from the link that Raevsky supplied we can get the remaining years data up to 2012. From the yearbook pages there is a link in each year labeled US Legal Permanent Residents <YEAR>. That gives a report that shows the section 202 and 203 numbers. Both numbers are tapering off. Section 203 is said to be without limit, and whilst it existed during the time period covered by your link it is not accounted for on your link. So actually I think we can entirely ignore section 203 visas. Anyone feel free to call me foolish on that.

So looking at Section 202 that tapered off quite rapidly. There was a offset (deficit to be repaid) of 35,907 according to your link in 2003 but having tracked the numbers I can say that the offset would have been wiped out by 2007 (assuming DV AND EW continued donating). If the donation came from DV only then the offset would have continued until 2011/2012.

Section 202 and 203 numbvers for 1998 to 2012 (2002 to 2012 for S203) can be seen below. Note that section 202 is probably less than 200 these days (183 in 2012).

202 203
1998 1
1999 11267
2000 23641
2001 18926
2002 9495 21603
2003 2577 27100
2004 2292 30136
2005 1155 15597
2006 661 25950
2007 340 11779
2008 296 8359
2009 296 4864
2010 248 3705
2011 158 3224
2012 183 2803

So - what does this all mean. Well it might be EVEN more optimistic than I mentioned earlier. If section 203 is not subjkect to the limit (meaning does not have to be repaid by the DV 5k) then the NACARA "debt" is probably repaid entirely by now (perhaps as early as 2006) and ongoing impact of NACARA is minimal. That would suggest they could go to something approaching 55k for DV and still be within limits!

Happy to get input on this although it is probably too hypothetical for anyone to care....
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Yes, that all makes sense. I agree only 202 does matter, not 203. It is possble, however, that they reduce each year much less than 5000 or 10000. Like I am pretty sure in DV-13 53443 = 3741/7% is the world max, and they reduced only for 1557 (=55000-53443) or so. Because they reduce much less than 5000 (or 10000) per year they could still be reducing, the debt might still exist.
So, in that case the resulting 51080 is in fact underfilling of quota, what is about 53443. I would also assume in DV-14 they would still be reducing by about the same amount, but they will be able to fill all ~53443 (even though they would still probably reduce by about the same number, and get 53443 quota or so) because they have a lot of winners. So, it is logical to expect in DV-14 they would be able to add 53443-51080 = 2363 visas. That is 4.6% on top of 51080 (DV-13 number).
So, my EU expectation for ~35K plus/minus 2K could rise to 35K*1.046 = 36619 plus/minus 2K.
 
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Now that makes it clear I used the same calculation as raevsky for 2011 when c1984 asked me !
So nacara max visas to take is about 1000 . For dv 2014
I'm so glad to hear that makes me more relax :)
 
raevsky said:
Yes, that all makes sense. I agree only 202 does matter, not 203. It is possble, however, that they reduce each year much less than 5000 or 10000. Like I am pretty sure in DV-13 53443 = 3741/7% is the world max, and they reduced only for 1557 (=55000-53443) or so. Because they reduce much less than 5000 (or 10000) per year they could still be reducing, the debt might still exist.
So, in that case the resulting 51080 is in fact underfilling of quota, what is about 53443. I would also assume in DV-14 they would still be reducing by about the same amount, but they will be able to fill all ~53443 (even though they would still probably reduce by about the same number, and get 53443 quota or so) because they have a lot of winners. So, it is logical to expect in DV-14 they would be able to add 53443-51080 = 2363 visas. That is 4.6% on top of 51080 (DV-13 number).
So, my EU expectation for ~35K plus/minus 2K could rise to 35K*1.046 = 36619 plus/minus 2K.
Click to expand...


Thanks Raevsky. I did two calculations to see if the debt could still exist - I wasn't sure whether EW is still giving 5k to NACARA - you probably know. I carried on the numbers from the doc that House409 linked to, and that showed the debt would be repaid by 2006 if it is DV and EW or 2012 if it is just DV. So - I personally don't think a debt exists but then as you say there is the number of 3741 in Iran - which may indicate a larger NACARA demand than I imagine.

In any case - I appreciate your comments and I am thrilled to see your new estimate range!
 
Raevsky ; since you recalculate your predictions for EU, can you perhaps
Give us your new predictions for AF and the other regions, based on new infos
Ragarding the Nacara, That you have now ?
Thanks
 
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