http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
They hit 51k worldwide! Looks pretty much like DV10 and DV11.
They hit 51k worldwide! Looks pretty much like DV10 and DV11.
DV13 stats released!!!
- Thread starter House409
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Excellent - thanks very much for posting. We'll have to measure against the estimate for the incomplete CEAC data - but this looks to be almost exactly as expected. AF back up to 23k - pretty much exactly as "normal" and not at all like 2012...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
One majorly interesting point.
We know that (apart from Iran) all countries were continuing processing right until the end (i.e. they had not hit the limit even at 51k). Iran processing was stopped around mid September.
For the 3rd year in a row (JUST IGNORE 2012!!!) the visas number has gone over 50k. They actually issued 51080 and did not hit the global limit. That means they are using some NACARA visas.
The second confirmation of that is that they allowed Iran to go past 3500 (it got 3741). Slight overages could be explained by marriages and newborns, but 241 extra confirms to my mind at least that they are going into the NACARA allocation.
So - the good news is - we are dealing with a limit higher than 50k (between 51k and 55k).
The bad news is that it only took 110,000 selectees to award 51k visas last year.
So - it would seem logical that 115k/120k will be enough this year - it seems clear that the top 10% to perhaps 15% will miss out.
We know that (apart from Iran) all countries were continuing processing right until the end (i.e. they had not hit the limit even at 51k). Iran processing was stopped around mid September.
For the 3rd year in a row (JUST IGNORE 2012!!!) the visas number has gone over 50k. They actually issued 51080 and did not hit the global limit. That means they are using some NACARA visas.
The second confirmation of that is that they allowed Iran to go past 3500 (it got 3741). Slight overages could be explained by marriages and newborns, but 241 extra confirms to my mind at least that they are going into the NACARA allocation.
So - the good news is - we are dealing with a limit higher than 50k (between 51k and 55k).
The bad news is that it only took 110,000 selectees to award 51k visas last year.
So - it would seem logical that 115k/120k will be enough this year - it seems clear that the top 10% to perhaps 15% will miss out.
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3741 for Iran is a little bit too high. I am not sure how it happened, I have 2 possible explanations.
1. 7% limit is calculated from (55000 - used NACARA). 3741 is 7% of 53443. Then the quota was underfilled - only slighly above 51K, much less than 53443
2. Major blow for ability of DOS to track the number of visas for Iran.
By the way, the way I calculated Sloner effect seems to have been pretty accurate - I am satisfied with the way the numbers follow my estimates.
1. 7% limit is calculated from (55000 - used NACARA). 3741 is 7% of 53443. Then the quota was underfilled - only slighly above 51K, much less than 53443
2. Major blow for ability of DOS to track the number of visas for Iran.
By the way, the way I calculated Sloner effect seems to have been pretty accurate - I am satisfied with the way the numbers follow my estimates.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Well I disagree there a little. Each region underfilled its quota by a small amount - because no region was stopped on regional quota grounds so we don't know what they could have continued on to. We also don't know if one region or another underfilled against its quota worse than the others...
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
awesome dude big thank for you !
that will close the chapter of the speculation about 2013 yeahhhhh
Britsimon
Super Moderator
awesome dude big thank for you !
that will close the chapter of the speculation about 2013 yeahhhhh
It should close the chapter of speculation about 2012 - but I imagine it won't...
I know that for employment-based GCs if the quota in under-filled, oversubscribed countries can use the unsed visas even if it exceeds the 7% cap.
There's a chance they have the same policy with DV visas as well; Asia was current in September and if Iran didn't use the visas beyond 7% they could go to waste. I always imagined that in September if the region is current they will not impose the 7% limit.
But they announces Iran unavailable around September 20th, while asia was available until 9/30. You explanation contradicts that.
How do they normally do this mid-cycle (regarding VB releases)? Is there an official statement somewhere?
This what the law says, following INA 203 (c)(1)(E)(v):
Limitation on visas for natives of a single foreign state. - The percentage of visas made available under this paragraph to natives of any single foreign state for any fiscal year shall not exceed 7 percent
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...B/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-1083/0-0-0-1159.html
Maybe the notion of "visas made available" does not refer to 50,000 or 51,080, but to the 55,0000 limit, or to a number in between which would be for instance 55,000 minus actual NACARA visas.
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I kept a link to the spreadsheet with all the CEAC data for 2013 (I believe this is yours Raevsky, updated on 9/30/13).
If I understand well, not all consulates were using the CEAC database, and the AOS are not included. So, some data are missing. But it is fun to compare with the official stats.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=7
If I understand well, not all consulates were using the CEAC database, and the AOS are not included. So, some data are missing. But it is fun to compare with the official stats.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...1BZSTF0R0JGeVRSTFE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=7
Britsimon
Super Moderator
In the case of Iran I think there was a statement on an embassy website...
There is no regular mid cycle. But there was a public notice on ankara consulate website saying Iran was no longer available.