DV13 stats released!!!
- Thread starter House409
- Start date
urbanite
Active Member
Hi Simon and all
(references in the paragraph below are for EU region)
While I like to think that there is still hope for high CN'ers (having a high CN myself), I couldn't help by notice that for the past 4 DV's the total number of visas allocated to Europe are within the range of 16,083 - 16,619 (except for DV 2012 which I'm not even accounting since its an outlier).
Secondly, please also consider that the monthly cut off progression has been in then same range and cuts off are around 32,000-33,000 for the month of July. See link. Thus, high CN numbers can only become current in the month of August and September. Taking CN's in the range of 33.000 for July as a baseline, what could be the cutoff for August & September? Optimistically 36.000 and 39.000 (even though a most of the visas allocated to Europe might be exhausted by then.
Thirdly, please add to all these the number of issued visa so far (based on CEAC 2013) around 3000 for Oct to Dec 2013 and up to possibly 8000 for the first 4 months (based on some of your estimations posted in the CEAC thread). So following this progression, it seems to me that the visa available for the EU region will be exhausted before high numbers have a chance to become current.
Thoughts ? Counter-arguments ?
(references in the paragraph below are for EU region)
While I like to think that there is still hope for high CN'ers (having a high CN myself), I couldn't help by notice that for the past 4 DV's the total number of visas allocated to Europe are within the range of 16,083 - 16,619 (except for DV 2012 which I'm not even accounting since its an outlier).
Secondly, please also consider that the monthly cut off progression has been in then same range and cuts off are around 32,000-33,000 for the month of July. See link. Thus, high CN numbers can only become current in the month of August and September. Taking CN's in the range of 33.000 for July as a baseline, what could be the cutoff for August & September? Optimistically 36.000 and 39.000 (even though a most of the visas allocated to Europe might be exhausted by then.
Thirdly, please add to all these the number of issued visa so far (based on CEAC 2013) around 3000 for Oct to Dec 2013 and up to possibly 8000 for the first 4 months (based on some of your estimations posted in the CEAC thread). So following this progression, it seems to me that the visa available for the EU region will be exhausted before high numbers have a chance to become current.
Thoughts ? Counter-arguments ?
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
simon the best one you have given the information and the one i believe most is KCC completly misjuged this year DV by comparing it with 2012 thats it and the consequences are need to be faced by many high cases....
Britsimon
Super Moderator
OK excellent. The impact of the special countries though would push toward the optimistic end for people in non special countries, so that is good. I do think AF is where most of the disappointment will come as there seems to be a slight decrease in their numbers and perhaps therefore their quota. So other than that it sounds like we agree on the scale of the winners from selectees and that gives me some boost to continue cautiously disagreeing with your lower predictions, whilst respecting their more scientific basis....
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes I believe that is exactly what happened, because lets face it there is no other extraordinary reason to have increased selectees by 30%
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I would agree with almost all of that apart from where you say possibly 8k from the first 4 months, the full Ceac data Raevsky got includes the first 5 months. I think 8 k is also a tad high as that assumes almost all ready cases turn to issued. - I think I guesstimated about 7 or 7.5k
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yep - you guys are special.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes and no. Yes because it should do, BUT I also think the slight reduction is visas in AF region (as seen in 2013) could be used to increase OC and perhaps SA. That would skew things in favour of you guys, and mean that you could go higher than SSSEM would suggest. One word of caution, we do need to see the pace pick up in OC. It should be at least matching 2013, hopefully slightly ahead.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Uzbakistan 2011 got 3596 !!! Extra 96 !(Nacara)
2012 still managed to take 3212 even with the whole screw up of !
2013 took 3371 good result.
Did they hit the country limit in 2011? Like iran 2013?
What do you guys think about 2014 will they reach the country limit?
2012 still managed to take 3212 even with the whole screw up of !
2013 took 3371 good result.
Did they hit the country limit in 2011? Like iran 2013?
What do you guys think about 2014 will they reach the country limit?
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
If iran took 3741 and its 7% of 53500 if assume all the extra are from nacara
According to my calculations 3500 extra visas were availbale last year and they
Did use half it
Any comment?
According to my calculations 3500 extra visas were availbale last year and they
Did use half it
Any comment?
Hi everyone,
Trying to understand the CUT OFF evolution based on Raevsky CEAC DATA for DV-2013, I create a chart for Africa region that include the total cases, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana Cases and finally the numbers of holes.
The thing is to see in every 1000 chrunk the numbers described before. I think the chart will tell us a lot of thing about the DV process.
here is the link
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agk_blwxh4svdFdNM3FTbGJkU0s3ZjRkTVByTFFuSHc&usp=sharing
Your comments mates
Thank you
Trying to understand the CUT OFF evolution based on Raevsky CEAC DATA for DV-2013, I create a chart for Africa region that include the total cases, Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana Cases and finally the numbers of holes.
The thing is to see in every 1000 chrunk the numbers described before. I think the chart will tell us a lot of thing about the DV process.
here is the link
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Agk_blwxh4svdFdNM3FTbGJkU0s3ZjRkTVByTFFuSHc&usp=sharing
Your comments mates
Thank you
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The selectees (nearly 110k) were not quite enough to fill the quota. I'm not sure a full 53.5k were available last year (NACARA should still have totalled over 2k) but I do believe that there was a small underfilling at 51k.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
I calculated that nacara took 1500 visas last year if we assume that. 3741= 7% out of 53500 !
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Ahh ok - yes I think there is some NACARA increase, but a few may be due to babies etc. It is also pretty difficult for KCC to control a country cutoff with precision - because they don't get aos numbers until later and AP late approvals could surprise them. So they might have gone over by few extra by accident...
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Well it make sense as well thanks simon
Any comments mates
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
I will have a look at it on pc later
Thanks rafiko you are always heplfull
the first thing I saw is when a country hit its limit, the number of holes increase. we can saw that for Nigeria at CN 21000, Egypt at 24000, Ghana at 31000 and finally ETH at 34000.
That explain the increase in cut offs last year from 34000 and above.
and for DV-2014, Nigeria already shows his limit at 8000 and egypt at 12000.
so I think DV-2014 will be very different then last year