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DV Lottery 2017 - Questions

Britsimon said:
Because it is a random lottery with less than 1% chance of selection (that varies by region) . So - a person could expect to win around one time in about 100 years - I'd call that a low chance of winning - wouldn't you?

It's random, so of course, some win twice.
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That's right Brit, very low chance of winning this lottery and the best is to keep on with normal life and don't worry about this. I'm also trying my luck again this year and see if I hit the jackpot lol
 
1% for everyone...this is going to be a rough ride...2 months to go

Knowing that some of the members have tried several times and still trying is really tough.. I hope we all make it this time "my first attempt here"
 
Sits on the sidelines....glances in on the forums...then pops back out again to real life.

You just never know ;)

Q
 
Dman32 said:
1% for everyone...this is going to be a rough ride...2 months to go

Knowing that some of the members have tried several times and still trying is really tough.. I hope we all make it this time "my first attempt here"
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Have you ever bought a lottery ticket and not won. It's as tough as that.
 
Dman32 said:
1% for everyone...this is going to be a rough ride...2 months to go

Knowing that some of the members have tried several times and still trying is really tough.. I hope we all make it this time "my first attempt here"
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They are some aspects to take into account. Developed nations like Australia, have a 5% of winning the lottery and developing nations have a lower chance like 0.86% more and less so this is all based on luck my friend. The first time it was really sad to get the notice of not selected but I decided to try again and don't let it bother me, in the case I win then fantastic and if not then I will try again as long the lottery is active.
 
hello guys how are you all??? well this is my fourth attempt, lets keep hope alive, best luck to all
 
Mushy_hot said:
hello guys how are you all??? well this is my fourth attempt, lets keep hope alive, best luck to all
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Hello Mushy,

I hope that for this DV 2017 you have better luck and keep on trying. I will also keep trying and crossing fingers for this year.
 
Pierre82 said:
They are some aspects to take into account. Developed nations like Australia, have a 5% of winning the lottery and developing nations have a lower chance like 0.86% more and less so this is all based on luck my friend. The first time it was really sad to get the notice of not selected but I decided to try again and don't let it bother me, in the case I win then fantastic and if not then I will try again as long the lottery is active.
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I just want to clarify something. You mention developing and developed nations in relation to the chance of winning. In case anyone thinks that is the reason for the chance difference, it isn't (or is, but only indirectly).

First, it is not by country, its by region. There is a quota in each region, that quota roughly determines how many selectees are chosen for the region. The number of entries is what effects the chances. If a region has a very high entry rate, then the chance of sinning is reduced. The OC region has a low rate of entry, so their chances are higher. It is NOT because there is some preferential treatment for that region.

Now, you could argue that the developed countries/regions have less motivation to enter the lottery as compared to a less developed country (this being the indirect aspect I mentioned), but there are other factors too that affect the number of entries for each country including the way the lottery is promoted in each country, or access to the internet and so on.
 
Britsimon said:
I just want to clarify something. You mention developing and developed nations in relation to the chance of winning. In case anyone thinks that is the reason for the chance difference, it isn't (or is, but only indirectly).

First, it is not by country, its by region. There is a quota in each region, that quota roughly determines how many selectees are chosen for the region. The number of entries is what effects the chances. If a region has a very high entry rate, then the chance of sinning is reduced. The OC region has a low rate of entry, so their chances are higher. It is NOT because there is some preferential treatment for that region.

Now, you could argue that the developed countries/regions have less motivation to enter the lottery as compared to a less developed country (this being the indirect aspect I mentioned), but there are other factors too that affect the number of entries for each country including the way the lottery is promoted in each country, or access to the internet and so on.
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I totally agree with your point Brit and I also agree that the DV is not providing favoritism to one nations and to others not but the reality is that developed nations that apply to the program do it under different circumstances compared to developing nations and there rate of success will be higher but again does not mean that everyone that apply will win as well that not everyone has a 1% of wining, its clear that they are even nations that don't even have 1 winner due to low application rate and the quota will always shift and is never consistent, since its based on regions but again I agree with your point.
 
Pierre82 said:
the reality is that developed nations that apply to the program do it under different circumstances compared to developing nations and there rate of success will be higher .
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Actually, this is not true, precisely because it's by region, and regions have both types of country. So: Fiji has the same chance of success in being selected as Australia (both OC). Thailand or Saudi Arabia have the same chance of success as Japan (all in AS). Kazakhstan has the same chance as Italy (both in EU). Etc.
 
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SusieQQQ said:
Actually, this is not true, precisely because it's by region, and regions have both types of country. So: Fiji has the same chance of success as Australia. Thailand or Saudi Arabia have the same chance of success as Japan. Kazakhstan has the same chance as Italy. Etc.
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Please clarify to me how does a person for example in country has 5 persons selected but in another country then has 0? I understand the point that it all goes based on the amount of applicants but the person that is applying at the end of the day will have a 0% of winning even if they are in the same region but again is all based on luck and you can just hope that in your country more people apply so you can have more chances as Britsimon was explaining earlier. Thanks for sharing your points and I know you are also an expert on this like BritSimon
 
Pierre82 said:
Please clarify to me how does a person for example in country has 5 persons selected but in another country then has 0? I understand the point that it all goes based on the amount of applicants but again the person that is applying at the end of the day will have a 0% of winning even if they are in the same region but again is all based on luck and you can just hope that your country more people apply so you can have more chances as Britsimon was explaining earlier. Thanks for sharing your points and I know you are also an expert on this like BritSimon
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The countries that have 0 selected are those that have a handful of entrants. Some countries literally have less than 10 applicants. If the region has a 1% chance of winning, tell me what that rounds to in terms of number of people out of 10, or even 20 or 30.... understand? In statistical terms you would need at least 100 people entering in country in a region with a 1% selection rate to get 1 person selected. Another country in the same region that has 60000 entrants will get 600 people drawn. And of course not every country will end up with exactly the same % of entrants selected, but I am sure you understand there is a random element involved in a selection like this.
 
SusieQQQ said:
The countries that have 0 selected are those that have a handful of entrants. Some countries literally have less than 10 applicants. If the region has a 1% chance of winning, tell me what that rounds to in terms of number of people out of 10, or even 20 or 30.... understand? In statistical terms you would need at least 100 people entering in a region with a 1% selection rate to get 1 person selected. Another country in the same region that has 60000 entrants will get 600 people drawn.
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So that means those countries have 0% of winning right?
 
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Pierre82 said:
So that means those country have 0% of winning right?
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Nothing has an exact zero probability; if you round it yes but if you work it out properly it will be a small positive probability. But as I said before there is always a random element so there is always a chance 1 person does get picked even if there are only a handful of people entering. This can and has happened - precisely because the draw is by region and not by country. My earlier point was that you should not be surprised if no-one is picked from a small country with a handful of entrants.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Nothing has an exact zero probability; if you round it yes but if you work it out properly it will be a small positive probability. But as I said before there is always a random element so there is always a chance 1 person does get picked even if there are only a handful of people entering. This can and has happened - precisely because the draw is by region and not by country. My earlier point was that you should not be surprised if no-one is picked from a small country with a handful of entrants.
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That's very true luck and statistics since the rest is out of our control :). I think for my region, Venezuela and Cuba are the ones picking up the big chunk of winners due to high application rates. Thanks for your input SusieQ, its always good to learn something new everyday and God Bless you
 
Pierre82 said:
That's very true luck and statistics since the rest is out of our control :). I think for my region, Venezuela and Cuba are the ones picking up the big chunk of winners due to high application rates. Thanks for your input SusieQ, its always good to learn something new everyday and God Bless you
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Take a look at the link below for numbers of entries and winners by country for a number of years. Remember the winning chances are based on entries, and derivative rates vary by country so published winners need to be divided by the derivative rate for each country to understand how many winners they had for that country.

https://travel.state.gov/content/vi...y-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html
 
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