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DV Lottery 2017 - Questions

Britsimon said:
Take a look at the link below for numbers of entries and winners by country for a number of years. Remember the winning chances are based on entries, and derivative rates vary by country so published winners need to be divided by the derivative rate for each country to understand how many winners they had for that country.

https://travel.state.gov/content/vi...y-visa/diversity-visa-program-statistics.html
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Thanks for the info Britsimon and I also had the opportunity to look at these stats previously and as I mention to Susie the big winners at least for the of year 2016 were Cuba and Venezuela. I guess that was due to their current political situation, lot of people are trying to leave and that means lot of people applying for DV Lottery. Compared to my country with a decrease of applicants every year and its really bad in terms of winning opportunities since last year they only selected 5. Lets see how this year goes and I hope that we have a larger number of applicants. I really doubt it but will cross my fingers anyways lol.
 
It doesn't really make a difference to your personal chance of selection if other people from your country enter or not because your selection is based on region, not country.
 
SusieQQQ said:
It doesn't really make a difference to your personal chance of selection if other people from your country enter or not because your selection is based on region, not country.
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I guess based on your answer its determined more on how the movements goes for Venezuela and Cuba since these are the countries that take more winners and at the end causes a bigger impact on the region. Interesting and Thanks :)
 
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Pierre82 said:
I guess based on your answer its determined more on how the movements goes for Venezuela and Cuba since these are the countries that take more winners and at the end causes a bigger impact on the region. Interesting and Thanks :)
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I don't think you got Susie's point. The region as a whole has a chance of being selected based on regional quotas (calculated by the DoS based on "cultural diversity" demographic estimates). Within a given region, all countries have the same chance of selection. Cuba and Venezuela received more selectee allocation because the participation rate in those 2 countries is considerably higher (per capita) than the other eligible countries. In fact, compared to other regions, SA has a disproportionate number of countries banned from participating in the lottery (as of 2016), so chances for remaining countries in the region -such as Panama, for example- are actually better than if Brazil, Colombia or Mexico were allowed to be drafted.
 
Guarapa said:
I don't think you got Susie's point. The region as a whole has a chance of being selected based on regional quotas (calculated by the DoS based on "cultural diversity" demographic estimates). Within a given region, all countries have the same chance of selection. Cuba and Venezuela received more selectee allocation because the participation rate in those 2 countries is considerably higher (per capita) than the other eligible countries. In fact, compared to other regions, SA has a disproportionate number of countries banned from participating in the lottery (as of 2016), so chances for remaining countries in the region -such as Panama, for example- are actually better than if Brazil, Colombia or Mexico were allowed to be drafted.
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But that does not remove the fact that Venezuela and Cuba are the 2 countries that enter more applications on the SA region and that means that they get more selectees (not chances of winning but more winners). I'm clear that this wont affect my chances as individual but it does impact the region in some way because there is a quota per region. The reason countries like Mexico, Brazil, El Salvador and other are ban is because lot of people from these countries are leaving to the U.S. As you may know Panama is a country that does not have lot of people considering to leave due to our good economy and stable political system.
 
Pierre82 said:
But that does not remove the fact that Venezuela and Cuba are the 2 countries that enter more applications on the SA region and that means that they get more selectees (not chances of winning but more winners). I'm clear that this wont affect my chances as individual but it does impact the region in some way because there is a quota per region. The reason countries like Mexico, Brazil, El Salvador and other are ban is because lot of people from these countries are leaving to the U.S. As you may know Panama is a country that does not have lot of people considering to leave due to our good economy and stable political system.
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The quota does not take immigration from DV into account so it doesn't actually affect it...it depends on immigration from family visas (and maybe work, not sure) but definitely not from DV. And indeed the fact that Panama does not have lots of people leaving for the US is the reason you are still eligible for DV ;)
 
SusieQQQ said:
The quota does not take immigration from DV into account so it doesn't actually affect it...it depends on immigration from family visas (and maybe work, not sure) but definitely not from DV. And indeed the fact that Panama does not have lots of people leaving for the US is the reason you are still eligible for DV ;)
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Thanks for the info Susie. I appreciate it and lets see how it goes this year for the SA region :)
 
Quick general question, does someone know when the draw is done, is it just after the last day of entry period in November or just beofre May ?
I know it might be silly question but I am really curious about it
 
casatoor said:
Quick general question, does someone know when the draw is done, is it just after the last day of entry period in November or just beofre May ?
I know it might be silly question but I am really curious about it
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I'm not 100% when the draw happens but I do know that you can check for the results in the month of May. I guess they do this some days in advance before May so the system can run all the huge amount of data of applications. Good luck on DV 2017
 
casatoor said:
Quick general question, does someone know when the draw is done, is it just after the last day of entry period in November or just beofre May ?
I know it might be silly question but I am really curious about it
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It is some unpublished date between the two dates you mention. After the initial draw (but some weeks before the May announcement), there is a fraud screening program that weeds out obvious bad entries. Those entries would be previous fraud cases, duplicate entries (based on details and photo comparison techniques) and so on. Those entries would be disqualified prior to the May results being announced. So those that were selected to be in the numeric range of winners, but disqualified immediately create "holes" in the numeric case number sequence - so we start with around 20% holes in Africa. Some countries also get limited in the draw process (because of massive entry numbers), and those countries also create some more holes.
 
Thank you for your clear answer, never thaught about the complexity of this process and it is really interesting, of course it would be more if I can go through the next step.
Thank you Pierre as well
 
Britsimon said:
It is some unpublished date between the two dates you mention. After the initial draw (but some weeks before the May announcement), there is a fraud screening program that weeds out obvious bad entries. Those entries would be previous fraud cases, duplicate entries (based on details and photo comparison techniques) and so on. Those entries would be disqualified prior to the May results being announced. So those that were selected to be in the numeric range of winners, but disqualified immediately create "holes" in the numeric case number sequence - so we start with around 20% holes in Africa. Some countries also get limited in the draw process (because of massive entry numbers), and those countries also create some more holes.
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Thanks for the link on the process Brit its very detailed :)
 
HI, Im form Kosovo/Albania
I have a question.
Im checking for DV lottery 2017, but when i try there is only 2016 year ( in option: Diversity Visa Lottery Program Year: )
So my question is 'when is the time' to check for my DV lottery, i think i cant try it now because we are in 2016 and my Confirmation number starts with:
20172T3L3..... ( so 2017 )
**sorry for my language.
 
xplod said:
HI, Im form Kosovo/Albania
I have a question.
Im checking for DV lottery 2017, but when i try there is only 2016 year ( in option: Diversity Visa Lottery Program Year: )
So my question is 'when is the time' to check for my DV lottery, i think i cant try it now because we are in 2016 and my Confirmation number starts with:
20172T3L3..... ( so 2017 )
**sorry for my language.
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You can check the status starting from May,3 2016
So still some time to wait until then
 
Britsimon said:
It is some unpublished date between the two dates you mention. After the initial draw (but some weeks before the May announcement), there is a fraud screening program that weeds out obvious bad entries. Those entries would be previous fraud cases, duplicate entries (based on details and photo comparison techniques) and so on. Those entries would be disqualified prior to the May results being announced. So those that were selected to be in the numeric range of winners, but disqualified immediately create "holes" in the numeric case number sequence - so we start with around 20% holes in Africa. Some countries also get limited in the draw process (because of massive entry numbers), and those countries also create some more holes.
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It makes me anxious to think that if I am a winner or not is already a fact but I can't know it until 50 more days!
I am learning how to exercise patience a lot with this process... :D
 
Molovi said:
It makes me anxious to think that if I am a winner or not is already a fact but I can't know it until 50 more days!
I am learning how to exercise patience a lot with this process... :D
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Yeah it takes time and just make sure to relax and keep enjoying your life, not sure if this is your first time applying but in the case it is then best of luck. This is my second time and I have learned to keep clam and wait and in case it does not happens then try again while the program is available and never give up :)
 
Pierre82 said:
Yeah it takes time and just make sure to relax and keep enjoying your life, not sure if this is your first time applying but in the case it is then best of luck. This is my second time and I have learned to keep clam and wait and in case it does not happens then try again while the program is available and never give up :)
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Same here, this is my second time and from last year I learned how difficult it is to actually win this thing, so I am not getting my hopes up.
But still, I would love to know the results just now if I could so I can stop wondering if this year will be the year...
Good luck to you too this time around! :)
 
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